First I'm probably still leaning towards Floyd, anybody with his defensive skills probably has to be the favorite.
But
1)Southpaw-Best southpaw Floyd's ever fought which isn't a shock since he's up there with Pernell as the best ever.
Floyd's defense is set up beautifully for conventional straight punching right handers. He pull counters the jab (which to be fair he could still probably do to Manny although maybe not as easily), he shoulder rolls the right hand, while his left hand is usually down that's ok cause he keeps his right hand glued to his chin to block conventional left hooks. He also protects the body well on both sides. So obviously there just aren't a ton of options.
But against a left hander it doesn't work quite as well.
The right hand glued to the chin doesn't work against right hooks, obviously. It doesn't really protect against straight left hands fully either. Keeping the left hand down to shoulder roll right hands is fine but it doesn't work the same against right hooks (and especially ones thrown from the odd angles that Pac does)
I'm a Pacquaio fan but Mayweather's people have let it be clearly known that they don't like him fighting left handers, its pretty simple why, he's just not set up for left handers like he is for right handers. Two fights he's had in the recent past against left handers, Corley and Judah, and he was hit more cleanly in both than he almost ever has. Granted he was kind of hyper agressive for him in the Corley fight but Pacquaio is on another level compared to those guys.
He's also got great reflexes so its not like he's totally lost fighting left handers but that's where Pacquaio's speed comes in, he would IMO be caught more in this fight than he ever has been if they're not always gigantic flush punches.
2)Angles-Floyd like I was saying earlier is perfectly set up for not only right handers but conventional punchers, Manny is anything but conventional. Floyd I don't think loves right hooks and they come at odd angles and very fast.
3)Footspeed and footwork-This kind of plays into angles as Manny is great at bouncing side to side and throwing from angles. But guys like Floyd and Hopkins eat up slow footed guys that need to be set to punch. Obviously Manny is not slow footed and he doesn't need to be set to punch. Hatton's footspeed was one of his best assets against Floyd cause he could get in on him but he languished on the inside and Floyd was just better than him there. Manny wouldn't languish on the inside, he would bounce in, bounce out, move side to side and throw from angles. Its good that he's not lunging in so much anymore but its even worse for a heavy footed guy (ala JMM) who has to shuffle forward, set and jab cause its just easy for Floyd to take on little step back, counter the first punch and slip away.
Bit odd but as I type this I realize some of the problems Calzaghe posed for Hopkins are some I'm thinking of here. Quick feet, no need to set to punch, totally unconventional punch angles, southpaw stance (which Bernard is actually more suited to deal with than Floyd), volume and speed.
And then there's power although power against Floyd without other things is almost meaningless hence why I'm not talking about it as much.
In a nutshell, this is why I've said for a while that Pacqauio is probably the toughest challenge for Floyd outside of I guess Paul Williams, tougher than Cotto (way to slow footed, too conventional and not enough power to turn the fight with one punch and he'd need it cause no way he wins a decision and he doesn't land enough to wear Floyd down) and really Mosley too.
Fuck that was long winded, too much like Bilbo, and probably inaccurate, way too much like Bilbo.
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