Thread: The Economic Crisis (The Fall of America & the Western World)

US Bonds and any US dollar denominated instruments are the most RISKY investments on the planet. Why would anybody want to hold US dollars OR US bonds? The value of the dollar has been eroded terribly by all the money printing. Wait til interest rates which have been kept artificially low at zero for the past 5 years hit 3 or 4%-----kiss the US goodbye Lang. They cant even pay the interest on their national debt. And this is at 0% interest. Do you know what the payments will be if the rate goes up even to 3%?? I cant even imagine the carnage.

Originally Posted by brocktonblockbust

US Bonds and any US dollar denominated instruments are the most RISKY investments on the planet. Why would anybody want to hold US dollars OR US bonds? The value of the dollar has been eroded terribly by all the money printing. Wait til interest rates which have been kept artificially low at zero for the past 5 years hit 3 or 4%-----kiss the US goodbye Lang. They cant even pay the interest on their national debt. And this is at 0% interest. Do you know what the payments will be if the rate goes up even to 3%?? I cant even imagine the carnage.

The Treasury just auctioned $$30 billion of seven year bonds yesterday. There was robust bidding and the Treasury could have sold eighty billion if they'd taken every penny on offer. And the price they sold them for? 1.93%. Assuming standard 2% inflation that means bond investors, the smartest investors on the planet*, people who read the paper and know the Fed is going to stop buying bonds, paid the US government 0.07% interest a year for seven year to look after their money for them.

Bond Prices Rise After Strong Debt Auction


The headline says that bond prices rise. And when bond prices rise, what happens to bond yields/interest rates, hmmm?

I already showed you a graph that shows how much the US would be paying if/when interest rates get back up to 5-7%. America would be paying the same percentage of GDP in interest as it was in the 1990s. And I already showed you the value of the dollar hasn't budged despite the Fed tripling the number of dollars in existence.


*Some of these guys spend longer every day studying the bond market and things that affect it than you do watching Alex Jones! A lot of them have spent twelve hours a day, six days a week, fifty weeks a year for decades studying the market. They're currently paying one and a half percent over inflation to lend money to the US for thirty years. If they're locking their and their investors' money away for thirty years for one and a half points over 2% annual inflation they can't be too worried about the imminent collapse of the dollar, can they?

Walk away Brock...walk away. I'll debate Kirk on a slew of topics but the man kind of knows his shit on macro economics...well except for that silly Keynsian garbage but we can't all be enlightened like Hayek

Originally Posted by Kirkland Laing

Originally Posted by brocktonblockbust

US Bonds and any US dollar denominated instruments are the most RISKY investments on the planet. Why would anybody want to hold US dollars OR US bonds? The value of the dollar has been eroded terribly by all the money printing. Wait til interest rates which have been kept artificially low at zero for the past 5 years hit 3 or 4%-----kiss the US goodbye Lang. They cant even pay the interest on their national debt. And this is at 0% interest. Do you know what the payments will be if the rate goes up even to 3%?? I cant even imagine the carnage.

The Treasury just auctioned $$30 billion of seven year bonds yesterday. There was robust bidding and the Treasury could have sold eighty billion if they'd taken every penny on offer. And the price they sold them for? 1.93%. Assuming standard 2% inflation that means bond investors, the smartest investors on the planet*, people who read the paper and know the Fed is going to stop buying bonds, paid the US government 0.07% interest a year for seven year to look after their money for them.

Bond Prices Rise After Strong Debt Auction


The headline says that bond prices rise. And when bond prices rise, what happens to bond yields/interest rates, hmmm?

I already showed you a graph that shows how much the US would be paying if/when interest rates get back up to 5-7%. America would be paying the same percentage of GDP in interest as it was in the 1990s. And I already showed you the value of the dollar hasn't budged despite the Fed tripling the number of dollars in existence.


*Some of these guys spend longer every day studying the bond market and things that affect it than you do watching Alex Jones! A lot of them have spent twelve hours a day, six days a week, fifty weeks a year for decades studying the market. They're currently paying one and a half percent over inflation to lend money to the US for thirty years. If they're locking their and their investors' money away for thirty years for one and a half points over 2% annual inflation they can't be too worried about the imminent collapse of the dollar, can they?

only reason there is demand for bonds is because ::: hmmmmm??
“We know it has to happen. And when it does, we’ll get out.” Lang do you know who said that 2 weeks ago? Lang, if you are as knowledgable as you seem, you know that a bond sell-off has been anticipated for years, given the long run of popularity that corporate and government bonds have enjoyed. But most strategists expected that investors would slowly transfer out of bonds, allowing interest rates to slowly drift up.
Instead, Ben Shithead Bernanke recently suggested that the strength of the economic recovery might allow the Fed to slow down its bond-buying program, waves of selling have---could we say Kirkland---convulsed the markets. The value of outstanding United States government 10-year notes has fallen 10% since a high in early May. The selling--if you read it---hit a record $48 billion worth of shares in bond mutual funds so far in June, according to TrimTabs.(see this video, this guy is the husband of a girl I did my Masters with in 1990:
But hedge funds and other big institutional investors have also been closing out positions or stepping back from the bond market. “The feeling you are getting out there is that people are selling first and asking questions later,” said Hans Humes, chief executive of the hedge fund Greylock Capital Management.

Originally Posted by brocktonblockbust

Originally Posted by Kirkland Laing

Originally Posted by brocktonblockbust

US Bonds and any US dollar denominated instruments are the most RISKY investments on the planet. Why would anybody want to hold US dollars OR US bonds? The value of the dollar has been eroded terribly by all the money printing. Wait til interest rates which have been kept artificially low at zero for the past 5 years hit 3 or 4%-----kiss the US goodbye Lang. They cant even pay the interest on their national debt. And this is at 0% interest. Do you know what the payments will be if the rate goes up even to 3%?? I cant even imagine the carnage.

The Treasury just auctioned $$30 billion of seven year bonds yesterday. There was robust bidding and the Treasury could have sold eighty billion if they'd taken every penny on offer. And the price they sold them for? 1.93%. Assuming standard 2% inflation that means bond investors, the smartest investors on the planet*, people who read the paper and know the Fed is going to stop buying bonds, paid the US government 0.07% interest a year for seven year to look after their money for them.

Bond Prices Rise After Strong Debt Auction


The headline says that bond prices rise. And when bond prices rise, what happens to bond yields/interest rates, hmmm?

I already showed you a graph that shows how much the US would be paying if/when interest rates get back up to 5-7%. America would be paying the same percentage of GDP in interest as it was in the 1990s. And I already showed you the value of the dollar hasn't budged despite the Fed tripling the number of dollars in existence.


*Some of these guys spend longer every day studying the bond market and things that affect it than you do watching Alex Jones! A lot of them have spent twelve hours a day, six days a week, fifty weeks a year for decades studying the market. They're currently paying one and a half percent over inflation to lend money to the US for thirty years. If they're locking their and their investors' money away for thirty years for one and a half points over 2% annual inflation they can't be too worried about the imminent collapse of the dollar, can they?

only reason there is demand for bonds is because ::: hmmmmm??
“We know it has to happen. And when it does, we’ll get out.” Lang do you know who said that 2 weeks ago? Lang, if you are as knowledgable as you seem, you know that a bond sell-off has been anticipated for years, given the long run of popularity that corporate and government bonds have enjoyed. But most strategists expected that investors would slowly transfer out of bonds, allowing interest rates to slowly drift up.
Instead, Ben Shithead Bernanke recently suggested that the strength of the economic recovery might allow the Fed to slow down its bond-buying program, waves of selling have---could we say Kirkland---convulsed the markets. The value of outstanding United States government 10-year notes has fallen 10% since a high in early May. The selling--if you read it---hit a record $48 billion worth of shares in bond mutual funds so far in June, according to TrimTabs.(see this video, this guy is the husband of a girl I did my Masters with in 1990:
But hedge funds and other big institutional investors have also been closing out positions or stepping back from the bond market. “The feeling you are getting out there is that people are selling first and asking questions later,” said Hans Humes, chief executive of the hedge fund Greylock Capital Management.

Yes, you'll find people out there predicting all sorts of things. As for who sadi that I have no idea. What you've got is a bunch of bits and pieces that you think mean something but actually don't mean anything at all.

If I wanted to write a scare article to get people panicking about the collapse of the bond market/financial system/whatever I'm sure I could do a much better job. The actual prices of bonds and the volume of trading of bonds, bond funds, bond derivatives and options has all been within normal ranges for years now. Just because what you think is a huge number was traded in a month doesn't mean anything, it's just somebody using normal numbers (that sound big!) to scare you.

Your first argument was the soaring price of gold which you said predicted the imminent collapse of the dollar. What's happening to the price of gold right now, hmmm?

Originally Posted by VictorCharlie

Walk away Brock...walk away. I'll debate Kirk on a slew of topics but the man kind of knows his shit on macro economics...well except for that silly Keynsian garbage but we can't all be enlightened like Hayek

I invite you to compare Hayekian Europe with its record and rising unemployment rate (over 25% in some countries) and relatively Keynesian America. The last five years have been a complete vindication for Keynesian economics.

I'm not tied to any particular ideology. I have to be right, I can't afford the luxury of believing in one thing when events prove it's completely wrong. If it turned out that slashing government spending worked and turned recessionary economies around then I'd fully support slashing government spending. But the evidence shows how well it works all too clearly.

I wouldn't describe any centrally planned economy as reminiscent of Hayek's principles and definitely not any in Europe. American's problem is they fully embrace Keynes philosophy of deficit spending to stabilize markets but ignore the part where he talks about running a surplus once the markets turn back up.

Originally Posted by Kirkland Laing

Originally Posted by brocktonblockbust

Originally Posted by Kirkland Laing

Originally Posted by brocktonblockbust

US Bonds and any US dollar denominated instruments are the most RISKY investments on the planet. Why would anybody want to hold US dollars OR US bonds? The value of the dollar has been eroded terribly by all the money printing. Wait til interest rates which have been kept artificially low at zero for the past 5 years hit 3 or 4%-----kiss the US goodbye Lang. They cant even pay the interest on their national debt. And this is at 0% interest. Do you know what the payments will be if the rate goes up even to 3%?? I cant even imagine the carnage.

The Treasury just auctioned $$30 billion of seven year bonds yesterday. There was robust bidding and the Treasury could have sold eighty billion if they'd taken every penny on offer. And the price they sold them for? 1.93%. Assuming standard 2% inflation that means bond investors, the smartest investors on the planet*, people who read the paper and know the Fed is going to stop buying bonds, paid the US government 0.07% interest a year for seven year to look after their money for them.

Bond Prices Rise After Strong Debt Auction


The headline says that bond prices rise. And when bond prices rise, what happens to bond yields/interest rates, hmmm?

I already showed you a graph that shows how much the US would be paying if/when interest rates get back up to 5-7%. America would be paying the same percentage of GDP in interest as it was in the 1990s. And I already showed you the value of the dollar hasn't budged despite the Fed tripling the number of dollars in existence.


*Some of these guys spend longer every day studying the bond market and things that affect it than you do watching Alex Jones! A lot of them have spent twelve hours a day, six days a week, fifty weeks a year for decades studying the market. They're currently paying one and a half percent over inflation to lend money to the US for thirty years. If they're locking their and their investors' money away for thirty years for one and a half points over 2% annual inflation they can't be too worried about the imminent collapse of the dollar, can they?

only reason there is demand for bonds is because ::: hmmmmm??
“We know it has to happen. And when it does, we’ll get out.” Lang do you know who said that 2 weeks ago? Lang, if you are as knowledgable as you seem, you know that a bond sell-off has been anticipated for years, given the long run of popularity that corporate and government bonds have enjoyed. But most strategists expected that investors would slowly transfer out of bonds, allowing interest rates to slowly drift up.
Instead, Ben Shithead Bernanke recently suggested that the strength of the economic recovery might allow the Fed to slow down its bond-buying program, waves of selling have---could we say Kirkland---convulsed the markets. The value of outstanding United States government 10-year notes has fallen 10% since a high in early May. The selling--if you read it---hit a record $48 billion worth of shares in bond mutual funds so far in June, according to TrimTabs.(see this video, this guy is the husband of a girl I did my Masters with in 1990:
But hedge funds and other big institutional investors have also been closing out positions or stepping back from the bond market. “The feeling you are getting out there is that people are selling first and asking questions later,” said Hans Humes, chief executive of the hedge fund Greylock Capital Management.

Yes, you'll find people out there predicting all sorts of things. As for who sadi that I have no idea. What you've got is a bunch of bits and pieces that you think mean something but actually don't mean anything at all.

If I wanted to write a scare article to get people panicking about the collapse of the bond market/financial system/whatever I'm sure I could do a much better job. The actual prices of bonds and the volume of trading of bonds, bond funds, bond derivatives and options has all been within normal ranges for years now. Just because what you think is a huge number was traded in a month doesn't mean anything, it's just somebody using normal numbers (that sound big!) to scare you.

Your first argument was the soaring price of gold which you said predicted the imminent collapse of the dollar. What's happening to the price of gold right now, hmmm?

you DO realize that is just your OPINION, don't you Kirkland?

Originally Posted by VictorCharlie

I wouldn't describe any centrally planned economy as reminiscent of Hayek's principles and definitely not any in Europe. American's problem is they fully embrace Keynes philosophy of deficit spending to stabilize markets but ignore the part where he talks about running a surplus once the markets turn back up.

Centrally planned economies are economies where erery aspect of the economy is controlled and run by the government. North Korea is an example of a planned economy. Economies throughout Hayek and other Austrians' lives that they studied and based their theories on have been mixed economies where the economy is mainly private but has a government/public sector.

I agree about the Keynesian bit but the fact that governments never* run a surplus in good economic times doesn't negate the fact that Keynesian policies are now obviously the only way to deal with zero interest rates/poor economic growth situations like the current one.

*Actually Spain and Ireland were running large surpluses before the 2008 meltdown. After five years of cuts Spain currently has 26% unemployment and Ireland has 15% and would have 25% but so many Irish have emigrated again, fucking their economy up for future decades.

Originally Posted by brocktonblockbust

Originally Posted by Kirkland Laing

Originally Posted by brocktonblockbust

Originally Posted by Kirkland Laing

Originally Posted by brocktonblockbust

US Bonds and any US dollar denominated instruments are the most RISKY investments on the planet. Why would anybody want to hold US dollars OR US bonds? The value of the dollar has been eroded terribly by all the money printing. Wait til interest rates which have been kept artificially low at zero for the past 5 years hit 3 or 4%-----kiss the US goodbye Lang. They cant even pay the interest on their national debt. And this is at 0% interest. Do you know what the payments will be if the rate goes up even to 3%?? I cant even imagine the carnage.

The Treasury just auctioned $$30 billion of seven year bonds yesterday. There was robust bidding and the Treasury could have sold eighty billion if they'd taken every penny on offer. And the price they sold them for? 1.93%. Assuming standard 2% inflation that means bond investors, the smartest investors on the planet*, people who read the paper and know the Fed is going to stop buying bonds, paid the US government 0.07% interest a year for seven year to look after their money for them.

Bond Prices Rise After Strong Debt Auction


The headline says that bond prices rise. And when bond prices rise, what happens to bond yields/interest rates, hmmm?

I already showed you a graph that shows how much the US would be paying if/when interest rates get back up to 5-7%. America would be paying the same percentage of GDP in interest as it was in the 1990s. And I already showed you the value of the dollar hasn't budged despite the Fed tripling the number of dollars in existence.


*Some of these guys spend longer every day studying the bond market and things that affect it than you do watching Alex Jones! A lot of them have spent twelve hours a day, six days a week, fifty weeks a year for decades studying the market. They're currently paying one and a half percent over inflation to lend money to the US for thirty years. If they're locking their and their investors' money away for thirty years for one and a half points over 2% annual inflation they can't be too worried about the imminent collapse of the dollar, can they?

only reason there is demand for bonds is because ::: hmmmmm??
“We know it has to happen. And when it does, we’ll get out.” Lang do you know who said that 2 weeks ago? Lang, if you are as knowledgable as you seem, you know that a bond sell-off has been anticipated for years, given the long run of popularity that corporate and government bonds have enjoyed. But most strategists expected that investors would slowly transfer out of bonds, allowing interest rates to slowly drift up.
Instead, Ben Shithead Bernanke recently suggested that the strength of the economic recovery might allow the Fed to slow down its bond-buying program, waves of selling have---could we say Kirkland---convulsed the markets. The value of outstanding United States government 10-year notes has fallen 10% since a high in early May. The selling--if you read it---hit a record $48 billion worth of shares in bond mutual funds so far in June, according to TrimTabs.(see this video, this guy is the husband of a girl I did my Masters with in 1990:
But hedge funds and other big institutional investors have also been closing out positions or stepping back from the bond market. “The feeling you are getting out there is that people are selling first and asking questions later,” said Hans Humes, chief executive of the hedge fund Greylock Capital Management.

Yes, you'll find people out there predicting all sorts of things. As for who sadi that I have no idea. What you've got is a bunch of bits and pieces that you think mean something but actually don't mean anything at all.

If I wanted to write a scare article to get people panicking about the collapse of the bond market/financial system/whatever I'm sure I could do a much better job. The actual prices of bonds and the volume of trading of bonds, bond funds, bond derivatives and options has all been within normal ranges for years now. Just because what you think is a huge number was traded in a month doesn't mean anything, it's just somebody using normal numbers (that sound big!) to scare you.

Your first argument was the soaring price of gold which you said predicted the imminent collapse of the dollar. What's happening to the price of gold right now, hmmm?

you DO realize that is just your OPINION, don't you Kirkland?

I'm Kirkland Laing. I'm always right about everything. I could write you a book about the bond market and how it works. When I try and condense everything I need to say into a few paragraphs I read it back and think awful job, I didn't explain this and that rpoperly. What I will do is spend a couple of days drafting a concise post that explains the current situation so simply and clearly that even Lyle can understand it. I'm only going to spend a few minutes a day doing it so expect it next week. And we'll see how my explanation of the market and what will happen in the future plays out against what does actually happen. You'll see that when it comes to this sort of thing I'm always right about everything.

In return you have to give me a final date in the future when you'll accept that the ECONOMIC FIERY DEATH SPIRAL isn't going to happen. Some date when you accept the people you're reading were wrong all along. Because they are.

you DO realize that is just your OPINION, don't you Kirkland? [/QUOTE]

I'm Kirkland Laing. I'm always right about everything. .[/QUOTE]

uh,.....wait a minute.........what?

I don't understand. I'm Kirkland Laing. Kirkland Laing!

Originally Posted by Kirkland Laing

I don't understand. I'm Kirkland Laing. Kirkland Laing!

The italics clarified it, thanks. Any way you a good guy and we aint fightin but I got a Masters in INt'l Finance from Thunderbird (AZ) and I know a decent amount about it. The US has lent, spent and guaranteed $26 trillion since 2009. Deregulation has allowed all kinds of abuse. Black pools, default swaps, collateralized debt obligations, all sorts of shenanigans, and the criminals who pulled this off are now expected (hahaha) to solve it? Thats asking the fox to guard the henhouse. The same people who in 2007 "didnt see it coming" are now being trusted to tell us what is happening now What a joke. YOu really believe the company line/the govt line that there is a recovery and we are out of the recession since June of 09? Hahaha---you believe there is only 7% unemployment? More like 24%---see the problem with believeing govt accounting figures is that they fudge the figures, manipulate the data laft and right shamelessly.

Now food and fule are not being counted in the CPI index? Not part of inflation huh? hmmm? How convenient. Thats how they can claim there is no inflation. With all those dollars printed out of nothing, backed by nothing, producing nothing, creating no productive capacity, only encouraging more consumer spending........how is there no inflation? You believe them too much. They are liars, they have always been and always will be. Its all coming down shortly Laing. The whole CHARADE. peace bro

Originally Posted by brocktonblockbust

Originally Posted by Kirkland Laing

I don't understand. I'm Kirkland Laing. Kirkland Laing!

The italics clarified it, thanks. Any way you a good guy and we aint fightin but I got a Masters in INt'l Finance from Thunderbird (AZ) and I know a decent amount about it. The US has lent, spent and guaranteed $26 trillion since 2009. Deregulation has allowed all kinds of abuse. Black pools, default swaps, collateralized debt obligations, all sorts of shenanigans, and the criminals who pulled this off are now expected (hahaha) to solve it? Thats asking the fox to guard the henhouse. The same people who in 2007 "didnt see it coming" are now being trusted to tell us what is happening now What a joke. YOu really believe the company line/the govt line that there is a recovery and we are out of the recession since June of 09? Hahaha---you believe there is only 7% unemployment? More like 24%---see the problem with believeing govt accounting figures is that they fudge the figures, manipulate the data laft and right shamelessly.

Now food and fule are not being counted in the CPI index? Not part of inflation huh? hmmm? How convenient. Thats how they can claim there is no inflation. With all those dollars printed out of nothing, backed by nothing, producing nothing, creating no productive capacity, only encouraging more consumer spending........how is there no inflation? You believe them too much. They are liars, they have always been and always will be. Its all coming down shortly Laing. The whole CHARADE. peace bro

You don't even understand basic stuff about bonds that's covered in high school economics lessons. Are you going to give me an actual date by which you guarantee the US economy will be in a FIERY DEATH SPIRAL?

Originally Posted by Kirkland Laing

Originally Posted by brocktonblockbust

Originally Posted by Kirkland Laing

I don't understand. I'm Kirkland Laing. Kirkland Laing!

The italics clarified it, thanks. Any way you a good guy and we aint fightin but I got a Masters in INt'l Finance from Thunderbird (AZ) and I know a decent amount about it. The US has lent, spent and guaranteed $26 trillion since 2009. Deregulation has allowed all kinds of abuse. Black pools, default swaps, collateralized debt obligations, all sorts of shenanigans, and the criminals who pulled this off are now expected (hahaha) to solve it? Thats asking the fox to guard the henhouse. The same people who in 2007 "didnt see it coming" are now being trusted to tell us what is happening now What a joke. YOu really believe the company line/the govt line that there is a recovery and we are out of the recession since June of 09? Hahaha---you believe there is only 7% unemployment? More like 24%---see the problem with believeing govt accounting figures is that they fudge the figures, manipulate the data laft and right shamelessly.

Now food and fule are not being counted in the CPI index? Not part of inflation huh? hmmm? How convenient. Thats how they can claim there is no inflation. With all those dollars printed out of nothing, backed by nothing, producing nothing, creating no productive capacity, only encouraging more consumer spending........how is there no inflation? You believe them too much. They are liars, they have always been and always will be. Its all coming down shortly Laing. The whole CHARADE. peace bro

You don't even understand basic stuff about bonds that's covered in high school economics lessons. Are you going to give me an actual date by which you guarantee the US economy will be in a FIERY DEATH SPIRAL?

no I will not go back and forth with you like Lyle has done. Want to know why? Because you have no respect. I didnt tell you anything like you dont know basic things or make any judgemental statements to you personally. But I see here you have done that in replying to me. I make it a rule to not debate a person who takes it to the insulting or personal level. My advice to you bro: it aint always what you say but HOW you say it. Ciao.