Showtime’s Super Middleweight Tournament Predictions: Part 2

Last week, I previewed Showtime’s “Super Six World Boxing Classic” and gave my predictions for the first round of fights. When I sat down to write that article, I still felt as though this whole thing wasn’t real.

In the back of my mind, I thought that Ken Hershman of Showtime was just playing a cruel practical joke on the boxing public.

And then I saw the pictures of the six of them: Arthur Abraham, Carl Froch, Andre Dirrell, Mikkel Kessler, Jermain Taylor and Andre Ward with cocked fists and a mix of scowls and smiles. And then I pinched myself to make sure it was real.

That aside, let’s move on to the next set of predictions. Here is the rough schedule for the second and third rounds of the tournament, followed by my predictions.

January 2010: Abraham vs. Dirrell (U.S.)
March 2010: Froch vs. Kessler (Europe)
Spring 2010: Taylor vs. Ward (U.S.)

Summer 2010: Abraham vs. Froch (Europe); Dirrell vs. Ward (U.S.)
Fall 2010: Kessler vs. Taylor (U.S.)
January 2011: Semi-finals
May/June 2011: Final

Abraham vs. Dirrell: The 2004 Olympian will be a tough act to figure out for Abraham. Not only is Dirrell much bigger than Abraham, but he is much faster and more well-schooled. Dirrell will be able to pierce Abraham’s so-so defense from safe range and throw inside the German’s wide punches.

But again, there is the question of how well Dirrell handles pressure. In this case, will he have the endurance and toughness to outlast Abraham, who will be in his young opponent’s face from the first bell to the last? Dirrell is talented but the most verdant in the tournament and that doesn’t bode well against a destroyer like Abraham.

Abraham will have to fight like a madman to overcome Dirrell’s size and speed, but then, he might just really be a madman. Abraham SD 12.

Froch vs. Kessler: This one will be huge. Can you imagine the atmosphere in, say, Millennium Stadium or the Wembley Arena or the M.E.N. Arena when these two meet? In the end, I suspect the Brits will be let down.

If you want some idea of how this one might go down, watch Kessler’s 2007 fight against Librado Andrade (who sadly, is not included in this tournament). Andrade had his moments, especially when he was able to make Kessler fight at a faster pace than usual. But ultimately, Kessler’s pin point counterpunching told the tale.

It will be the same story against Froch. The difference, I think, will be that Kessler can finish Froch, whose chin doesn’t stack up to Andrade’s. Andrade also has that unique Mexican knack for moving his head just enough to take a little sting out of each shot. Froch can’t, or at least doesn’t, do that. Kessler TKO 10.

Taylor vs. Ward: Taylor will have a good matchup in the second round. Ward is a slick and smooth boxer, but he has a tendency to get lead footed. Miranda had his few bright spots against Ward when the 2004 gold medalist began to plod. Additionally, Taylor moves better than Miranda and has shown the ability to cut off the ring.

Taylor’s right hand is sneaker and a little quicker than Miranda’s, which could be a problem for Ward who has had trouble avoiding straight rights periodically throughout his career.

I think Ward will have trouble with Taylor’s awkward, off-tempo style. Taylor pulls the upset. Taylor UD 12.

Abraham vs. Froch: If I am right to this point, Froch will be in a deep hole. His only sure chance to stay in the tournament will be to knock Abraham out. I think he’ll have a shot, considering that Abraham’s most trying contest to date was his first fight with Miranda.

Miranda’s pressure forced Abraham to fight backwards for much of the fight. Abraham should have lost, and he would have if not for horrific officiating (and a few of Miranda’s own stupid mistakes). Then again, Miranda might not have been in that position if not for a perfectly-timed uppercut that shattered Abraham’s jaw in the fifth round.

Froch will give Abraham all kinds of problems. This is a toss up. No matter the result, it will be an instant classic. Froch MD 12.

Dirrell vs. Ward: Dirrell and Ward have been the two shining prospects at 168 for five years. I have myself been a party to debates about who is better, and finally, we’ll have the chance to find out.

Despite its importance, this will likely be the least exciting of the tournament’s fights. That is nothing to be ashamed of in a lineup of slugfests, but the former Olympic teammates are both boxers first. Ward is a bit more polished than Dirrell, which could tip the scales in a true boxing match. Ward will also be able to keep up with Dirrell’s hand speed, the only one in the bunch who can do so.

The only question is whether Ward will be able to generate enough offense of his own to beat the longer Dirrell. He’ll have trouble counterpunching his way to a win, so I’ll take Dirrell in a razor thin decision. Dirrell UD 12.

Kessler vs. Taylor: The final bout of the group stage will be between two of the longer top 10 mainstays in the pool. While the online chatter leans toward the notion that Kessler will knockout Taylor, I see Taylor at least finishing the fight on his feet. The guys who knock Taylor out are big, aggressive punchers.

Kessler is a puncher, but takes a more measured approach. He won’t apply enough constant pressure to wear Taylor out completely and finish him early. Kessler will pull out a nip-tuck decision, but by a fair margin. Kessler UD 12.

At the completion of the round-robin stage, here are the standings according to my predictions:

Kessler: 7 points (3-0, 1 KO)
Abraham: 4 points (2-1)
Dirrell: 4 points (2-1)
Taylor: 2 points (1-2)
Froch: 2 points (1-2)
Ward: 0 points (0-3)

I too am a bit surprised that I did not pick Ward to win a single fight, but I’m sticking to my guns. I’m unsure about the contingency plan that Showtime has in place in case of a tie, but since Froch owns a win over Taylor, I’ll assume he gets the nod.

Here is how the playoffs shape up:
Kessler vs. Froch
Abraham vs. Dirrell

Next week, I’ll lend my (oft-faulty) prescience to these rematches, as well as the final. In the meantime, email me with your thoughts at aaronkingme@gmail.com