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These guys are at it again tonight as Pinoy boxing icon Manny “Pacman” Pacquiao steps into the ring for a fourth time against Mexican legend Juan Manuel “Dinamita” Marquez.
Deja vu for the boxing fans is in full effect as it’s the third time the pair meet at the famed MGM Grand, the fourth time they fight in Las Vegas and the fourth time on HBO’s PPV. And I am also going to predict this will be the forth time we see a close war between these two world class boxers.
Marquez, 54-6-1 (39), is far from counted out in this fight, but after losing two and getting a close draw in one of the four contests, even confident Marquez observers are edgy about choosing him to nab up a victory.
This despite the fact a close majority had him winning the third bout between the two fighters last November. And, in the mean time, Pacquiao, 54-4-2 (38), lost a disgusting decision to Timothy Bradley, although it was fairly clear that was an abomination. So, that also raises the question, will the judges do Pacquiao any favors? As it seemed previously? Only time will tell.
As with the majority of the boxing media, I am absolutely split about this fight. Nobody can pick a clear or even somewhat obvious winner.
That is why we can look back at previous fights between the two men to determine what would be your best prediction.
Going back to 2004, Pacquiao had just scrapped superstar Marco Antonio Barrera in devastating fashion to hit notoriety on an international level.
The chance to unify the Featherweight straps with another hungry competitor in Juan Manuel Marquez brought out the bull in Pacquiao, who put a tough Marquez on the canvas three times in the first round, nearly causing the fight to be stopped. But Marquez came back very quickly and after a rusty round two, he began to expertly time Pacquiao.
I think at extreme minimum, Marquez took 8 of the 12 rounds after the early scare. And a draw is a fair verdict. I don’t look at the first fight as importantly as this one seeing the dramatic experience and physical changes made in them ever since. But it is a fair measuring stick to what greener, more wild versions of Pacquiao and Marquez can do to each other.
In the 2008 rematch, both men were gaining that experience in the Lightweight division, where they faced off in an extremely close contest. Despite being staggered to the canvas once later on in the fight, Marquez managed to shut down Pacquiao’s elite arsenal with his precise counter punching.
Many simply believed that should have given Marquez the nod, despite Pacquiao stealing a split decision.
In the most recent bout from about a year ago, Marquez managed to shock the world. He never hit the deck, unlike in the first two bouts, and Marquez stood firm and managed to land the cleaner, more effective blows.
More specifically, I would consider Marquez’s chopping right hand to be his money punch; it simply couldn’t miss. I scored it 116-112 for Marquez. Pacquiao was aggressive but his shots glanced a bit, rarely landing flush. The judges gave it to Manny by a Majority nod.
What does this tell us? It’s simple; Pacquiao needs to avoid that inevitably accurate right hand with active lateral movement. Maybe even attempt to switch hit if it suits the situation and intelligent aggression.
Pacquiao used to vigorously look for openings and go in for an applauding finish when possible. He needs to do that again. No plodding forward like a reckless and rather hittable mauler. He has a great left hand power shot, as with most southpaw boxers, but he needs to mix it in with his combos if he is to succeed on the front end.
Marquez needs to give his shots that “spark” that impresses the judges. They don’t have camera angles to see all the inside counters. Plus, Pacquiao has a sturdy chin and therefore Marquez needs to make a good case for a decision victory as the KO is unlikely.
Marquez needs to keep working the money shot, and also the power right hook to drain down and maybe even put down the multiple division champion nicknamed “Pacman”.
Who will win? That depends. But I see Marquez getting a close decision as it is clear Pacquiao has lowered his workrate recently and Marquez is now even more physically adjusted to the 147 lb weight class. But it is a hard call to stick by for anyone. Tread safely gamblers.
Now that we have clarified that, lets also take a look at the remarkable undercard put in place with some of boxing’s biggest names featured including Yuriorkis Gamboa, Javier Fortuna and many more.
In the HBO Pay-Per-View opener from 9:00 PM EST, we will see top Dominican prospect Javier Fortuna (20-0-0 15 KO’s) look to remain undefeated against notable Irish import Patrick Hyland (27-0-0 12 KO’s) over 12 rounds.
Both men boast undefeated records and are hungry for victory, but the pressure is on the strongly publicized Fortuna, who is coming off starstruck victories against durable former world champion Cristobal Cruz, fellow prospect Yuandale Evans and veteran Mickey Roman.
A win here would continue to build up that list seeing his critical power and brutal savageness, nothing less is expected but another KO, but the Irish warrior Hyland has more planned.
As with most Irish boxers, Hyland is a toe-to-toe brawler. His power is far from Fortuna’s level but he has enough muscle to keep lower level foes like Fabrizio Trotta, Frankie Archuleta and Emmanuel Lucero off his tail.
Whether or not he be able to do that against Fortuna is, quite frankly, unlikely. But, he’ll try. Your best bet is another impressive Fortuna win.
After that in the chief-supporting contest of the evening, a quite intriguing IBF Lightweight title fight between rising Pinoy star Mercito Gesta (26-0-1 14 KO’s) and Mexican titleholder Miguel Vazquez (32-3-0 13 KO’s) offers a spicy stylistic mix pitting movement and speed against strength and grit.
Vazquez is known for being good at what he does. It may be a pinch uneventful at times, but Vazquez is a mover. He keeps on moving around the ring and sneaks in body shots and quick work on the inside before slipping away again, filling his resume with a weak knockout percentage.
Gesta is a tough guy, reliant on a lot of grit and heart to fight his opponents man to man. Surely, he’s the fan favorite in a fight like this but he’ll need to chase down Vazquez to defeat him which shall prove likely difficult.
Brought over from the Philippines as a youth, Gesta is determined to capture a world title, no matter what.
This fight is the most challenging to pick but I notice a much more determined Gesta leading up to the contest than the quiet Vazquez. I will predict a Gesta decision, but it’s a tough clash nevertheless. Gesta needs to come forward, ballistic and violent, to even consider a victory possible.
Now on to the co-headliner, recently signed 50 Cent fighter Yuriorkis Gamboa (21-0-0 16 KO’s) returns after a near 14 month layoff to face Filipino challenger Michael Farenas (34-3-4 26 KO’s) in a stiff test for the Cuban’s abilities.
After wins against talented fighters in Daniel Ponce De Leon, Orlando Salido, and Jorge Solis over 2010-2011, Gamboa was on a fast track to stardom. But promotional issues and fights being called off led him to more than a year’s absence.
This bout with Farenas will allow Gamboa a fresh start in the Super Featherweight division.
Most are picking an easy win for Gamboa over this mere contender, but if Farenas is game and wholeheartedly primed, nobody can force him to go with the flow and lose. But, we can never know until the final bell rings in this, or any of the fights.
Tune in, it should be a good one!
Watch the entire four fight card from the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, Nevada, on HBO PPV in the US starting at 9:00 PM EST/6:00 PM PST.
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Corey Quincy is a boxing writer for Saddoboxing.com, his personal blog at Blboxing and others. Follow him on Twitter at Quincyboxingfan and like his Facebook page at Boxing Legends.
