Boxing Analysis: Can Zab Judah Pull Off An Upset Against Floyd Mayweather?

A lot has been written about this coming matchup between Floyd Mayweather and Zab Judah, and anticipation is certainly running high among the boxing public even though Judah’s loss against Carlos Baldomir has somewhat deflated interest for this bout. As result of that loss, by and large many boxing pundits think that Judah’s chances of pulling an upset are so small that many view this fight as a

formality for Mayweather before he moves on to greater things in his career.

When Bob Arum said that Judah performs best when “his back is against the wall”, I could not agree more with this statement. Both fighters in a past had a habit of showing disrespect to their opponents but the difference was that it seems in Judah’s case this overconfidence (called arrogance by some) often translated into a loss of focus not only during the preparation for the fight, but during the fight as well. I doubt this will happen against Mayweather, and therefore I believe that boxing fans will get much more competitive match then they really expect.

And for the same reason, I do believe that Judah can pull an upset. Not highly likely, but certainly possible provided that he comes totally focused and with right fight strategy.
In my book, Judah is Mayweather’s most formidable opponent thus far, and the fact that Zab was mysteriously absent from helping to promote the fight suggests that he is taking this extremely seriously and that the New Yorker is fight focused like never before in his career.

If Judah is to have any chance of pulling an upset he must not try outbox the master boxer himself. He cannot win the fight by being copy of Mayweather. He has to bring something new in the ring. In my mind, his only chance is fighting very cautiously, looking for the openings and when they do come he has to step in, swamping Floyd with a barrage of combinations and exerting an enormous pressure. He has to stay far outside, before he comes inside launching ferocious attacks and then pulling away laterally. This lateral movement could cause Mayweather to miss with his counters, which in turn should give Zab more openings to reshuffle his inside battle.

One brilliant aspect of Mayweather’s boxing ability is in the way that he switches from defence to offense, especially when using swinging motion on the ropes to gather momentum but Judah could possibly exploit this to his own advantage by timing his power shots.

Simply put, Judah has to work extremely hard for the “lucky break” like the one that DeMarcus Corley had against Mayweather two years ago but did not fully take advantage of.
And most importantly – if Zab Judah is to pull an upset – he has to come with the right fight plan. He has to have a winning strategy and he must try to enforce it over Mayweather – no matter what. Just the way that Hatton had enforced his strategy against Kostya Tszyu.

Come Saturday night, I doubt that power and speed will differentiate the winner from the loser. Rather it will be ring smarts and intelligence, and if Zab Judah didn’t work on those things in his preparation for this fight, then he has very little hope of winning.