Boxing Perspective: Can Mosley Lose Against Cotto?

Click for larger image © Teddy Blackburn / Golden Boy Promotions

Forgive me for being bluntly open in my prediction of the outcome of this Saturday’s Mosley vs. Cotto WBA Welterweight title fight at Madison Square Garden, but I just don’t see Cotto winning this one.

The way I see it, the only clear advantage that Cotto has in this fight is his age. In most of other departments, Mosley wins hands down. Whatever Cotto does in a ring, he does well, but the problem is, he doesn’t do it fast enough for a boxer of Mosley’s caliber. I am afraid that Mosley’s strength, speed, punching power and his dazzling combinations will give him the clear edge.

In a several fights against much smaller opponents, Cotto was hurt. He looked ordinary against Oktay Urkal, and in opening rounds against Zab Judah, he had no answer for Judah’s speed and movement, being hit almost at will.

Maybe he was weakened in all these fights by trying to make weight, or maybe he just leaves himself too open, too many times. And if he does it against Mosley, the fight will not last the full 12 rounds.

I only attribute Mosley’s losses against Winky Wright to the size disadvantage where he could neither dominate, nor really hurt his opponent, while in losing fights against Vernon Forrest he was almost fighting his own shadow. Other Mosley fights were one-sided affairs, obviously excluding matches with De la Hoya.

Mosley is smart in his aggressiveness. He also still has that speed to execute those dazzling combos as well as power in both hands and the willingness to use them, while his stamina and granite chin will be there for him.

So, what can a fighter like Cotto, who is not as versatile, and rich in boxing terms, do to tip the odds in his favor?

Well, there is always chance. If Cotto can land enough body shots to slow Mosley down, before “bringing it on” to Mosley in later rounds, only then he can actually win this fight.

So, the question is not “can Cotto win?”, as no fight should ever be made if one fighter really doesn’t have a winning chance, but, will he win?

My prediction is – not this time.

Good luck to both fighters, and let this be a heart-wrenching boxing affair for all boxing fans out there.