Al Bernstein On Boxing: This Could Get Exciting

Floyd Mayweather Jr. is a little like the National Basketball Association. That seems a strange analogy, but it’s really not.

In recent years the off-season of the NBA has been really entertaining. There are blockbuster trades, player feuds, always more than our share of police blotter stories involving players, and at least a half a dozen paternity suits to spice things up.

Then the season begins and all that sizzle becomes a staid 82 game schedule with a style of play that must give all the players of the 70’s and 80’s heartburn.

Fast break opportunities are ignored to instead see guards walk the ball up the court, dump it into the low post and while everyone stands around that low post player goes one on one with not always sensational low post moves.

The product on the court somehow does not live up to our expectations.

And, that describes Mayweather Jr. to a tee. Outside the ring everything about him leading up to a fight is entertaining. His family is boxing’s version of the Osbournes. The break-ups and reconciliation’s come at a dizzying pace.

Most family members are soundbite machines that fuel the media with juicy stuff. And, add to that the inevitable legal entanglements that seem to find Floyd Jr. as often as cameras find Paris Hilton.

And, with HBO’s new penchant for making reality shows now before Mayweather fights, well, it’s all just too entertaining…much like the NBA.

Then, however, that pesky boxing match has to come along and ruin everything. Even though Floyd Jr. is an artist in the ring with skills so special that they have often bordered on the mystical, he, is, well….not so exciting to watch.

And, I don’t say that because he is a skilled boxer. I admire and like that style. No, what makes Floyd often less than scintillating in the ring is how calculating he can be. If it takes 35 punches thrown to win a particular round he will not throw one punch more than necessary. Floyd fights more like an efficiency expert than a freewheeling athlete. You can feel him computing all this in the ring.

Most of the time, when he does all this, he works on his own timetable because most of the people he fights are not able to make him change. Only Jose Luis Castillo in his prime was able to make the risk adverse Mayweather Jr. take a few in the service of salvaging wins.

Floyd must be genuinely threatened with losing in a match or he will not do more. And, that’s where this story takes a turn, because this weekend I think he will be threatened.

Combining his layoff with the superb skills and hunger of Juan Manuel Marquez, I think Floyd will have to do more, and take a few risks. In the process, he and Marquez will provide almost as much fun as the build up to the fight.

Marquez is probably the most skilled fighter Mayweather has ever fought. Yes, he is naturally smaller, and yes he is 36 years of age, but Marquez is too good to be dominated.

He is quick handed and accurate and punches in combination, all things that are necessary if you are to be competitive with Mayweather. It would not surprise me to see him outbox Mayweather, especially in the early rounds (ie. ring rust for Floyd after a 20 month layoff). If that happens, Floyd will turn to his biggest advantages in this fight, strength and power.

Seems crazy to say that, but it’s true. If Juan Diaz could hurt Marquez as he did, then Floyd, a better puncher than Diaz, can certainly do it. If my hypothesis holds up, then Floyd will be FORCED to become a power puncher looking for a knockout. That will involve taking some risks and throwing punches.

I see some thrilling middle to late rounds in this fight. I do not see the tactical decision win for Mayweather that many do. History is against me on this because that is what Floyd does.

This time, however, I think it will be different. Mayweather may very well win the fight as he is favored to do, but he will have to do it with a combination of guile and power – guile alone will not be enough.

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Perhaps the biggest question surrounding this fight is not who will win, but rather how it will be covered…or not covered, by the U.S. media.

The international media outside of the United States always covers boxing in the appropriate proportion, but in the U.S., the mainstream media does a horrible job of covering the sport.

For my thoughts on this, I urge you to look below at the special commentary I did on my boxing channel, that you can sample here on Saddoboxing. I think you’ll find it interesting.