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Thread: luck

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  1. #1
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    Default luck

    is there such a thing as a lucky punch?

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    Default Re: luck

    Probably not more like hopeful punches. McCall landing against Lennox with his eyes closed comes to mind.
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    Default Re: luck

    I don't think there is. I mean if you throw a punch it's intended to hurt. Eyes closed, standing on one foot, losing every round while doing both..it's still a punch thrown with intention.

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    Default Re: luck

    Dont think so. Probably more a case of being lucky the opponent walked onto it, double feinted, anticipated a different punch, got his feet crossed, etc. The guy punching will always hope for those things at the very least though, and far more often have picked up on it being possible, so its never lucky imo.

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    Default Re: luck

    Yes of course. However well practiced, planned and executed even a counter punch is, when being delivered after a feint, there will often be an element of chance present. That is what all those hours, weeks, months and years of practice are spent anticipating.

    The mistake is to assume the guy throwing the fight ending perfect punch is relying on that one lucky opportunity to capitalise on his opponents errors. The chance element is there but in the opponents mistakes.

    The good thing happening by chance here is a lucky punch, but not because of any random factor introduced by the guy throwing it.

    When Cormac Mccarthy said

    "You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from"

    He was pointing out how bad luck is often a warning that if heeded can avert a greater disaster.

    If Pacquiao had taken heed and made adjustments could he have avoided the Marquez planking? Maybe, what about after? For him it was certainly bad luck but it didn't end his career.

    If a fighter is capitalising on his opponents mistakes does that mean there is no bad luck involved? Skillful and meaningful execution of a punch does not preclude or remove the element of luck, good fortune or chance from the equation.

    You have to buy a ticket to win the lottery and in a 36 minute contest you are simply reducing the odds of being hit and increasing the chance you will hit your opponent by training. There is always a random 'luck' factor in play.
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    Default Re: luck

    Beanz, does the concept of "blessing in disguise" apply here? You win a boxing match by legally punching the opponent unconscious.

    Marquez intended to counter Pac with his right hand, he had landed the same counter shot dozens and dozens of times, where is the "luck" element?

    Where is Marquez luck? He did what he always does.

    Where is Pac's luck? He didn't benefit from being knocked unconcious, he didn't change his style and lost hundreds of millions?

    (by the way, I like that quote, No Country for Old Men, makes perfect sense)
    Last edited by Fenster; 07-25-2019 at 01:02 PM.
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    Default Re: luck

    Quote Originally Posted by Fenster View Post
    Beanz, does the concept of "blessing in disguise" apply here? You win a boxing match by legally punching the opponent unconscious.

    Marquez intended to counter Pac with his right hand, he had landed the same counter shot dozens and dozens of times, where is the "luck" element?

    Where is Marquez luck? He did what he always does.

    Where is Pac's luck? He didn't benefit from being knocked unconcious, he didn't change his style and lost hundreds of millions?

    (by the way, I like that quote, No Country for Old Men, makes perfect sense)
    Yes, I think so. The trouble with dismissing the idea of a lucky punch just because most punches have little to do with luck is that you have to pretend they don't exist at all. Without resorting to semantics, they must exist, but i think the real problem is people labeling the wrong punches.

    That said the Marquez punch that turned Manny into a carpet was never executed so perfectly in the first fights or certainly not at the same time as him being walked onto it. How big a part did chance play in it? and how much is chance or fortuitousness involved with any perfect KO?

    I don't know if an accumulator is the best betting analogy (is it the same thing when you bet over several events over a year, rather than just horses at the same meet?) but surely Marquez benefited from at least a greater likelihood of landing the hail Mary with every round they fought. Then again Rahman never needed that or many others deemed as throwing a 'lucky' punch.

    Maybe the right term is 'luckier punch' ?
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    Default Re: luck

    Hmmm... the accumulator analogy makes sense, however, I'm still not sure it fits with the quote. You might as well excuse any loss as bad luck.

    The Cormac McCarthy quote to me means - Pacquiao being knocked unconscious, at that exact moment in time, could have saved him from far worse "luck" - It changed his plans/life from that moment onwards - from showering, press conference, media, after show party, hospital, car rides, plane journey's etc.
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    Default Re: luck

    Generally speaking no. If the target is there and you can get close enough to whack it there's no luck in that. Fortuitous maybe, clumsy on the part of the opponent for allowing you to get close, drop his guard, back out in a straight line etc etc when for X amount of rounds he had been careful not to. But lucky, that's a bit unfair. Boxing is often compared to a game of chess. But in chess at any kind of decent standard you have to prepare your finish from a long way back, in boxing you don't have to. You don't have to manoeuvre your opponent into the perfect position to strike, you can just walk up and plant one on the fucker.

    A 'lucky punch' tends to have further chapters to the story. Rahman and McCall are prime examples. Chinned a guy once who came back to 'prove' that he was by far the better fighter and that they were the beneficiary of his poor judgement on the night, they got lucky. Again unfair. The target was there and they twatted it one.

    Luck is something you have no control over. To truly land a lucky punch you'd have to never move out of your corner, blindly windmill punches and hope your opponent walked into one. Even then it's still only fortuitous You were hoping the divvy bastard was going to do precisely that thing. Ignore that last part
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    Thumbs up Re: luck

    great answers.

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    Default Re: luck

    say you and i are boxing. i throw a jab and you slip it through the space next to your right ear and over your right shoulder.



    but whenever you slip a jab through the space next to your right ear and over your right shoulder, your head moves into the path of a right hand.



    so when i see you slip my jab through the space next to your right ear and over your right shoulder i ought to throw my right hand, right? heres where it gets tricky. because the motion of this slip mimics the motion of a right hand, at that very moment, there is no way to know the difference between what may just be a slip or what may actually be a right hand. thats how jose quinones knocked out doug dewitt.



    dewitt throws a jab thereby creating a slip, and, thinking he has moved quinones into the path of his right hand, at that very moment, runs into a counter right hand that was coming back over the top of his jab as he is trying to throw his right hand. heres a different view of the same thing.



    so say you and i are boxing. i throw a jab and you slip it through the space next to your right ear and over your right shoulder. i have just moved you into the path of my right hand, but because theres no way for me to know the difference between what may just be a slip or what may actually be a right hand, at that very moment, i have to take a chance. in this view boxing can be described as a game of chance, or, more accurately, many miniature games of chance merging with each other to form into a greater sum that we have collectively named boxing. this was one game of chance. but there are many more. to navigate these games of chance, the boxer must have some understanding of what probabilistic outcomes can occur from each game of chance, weigh the risk, and choose which games of chance to play, and which games of chance not to play. in other words, the boxer will want to repeatedly impose carefully picked games of chance onto his opponent that he probably can win, and try to stay away from games of chance that he probably cant win.
    Last edited by Yuzo; 08-07-2019 at 04:17 AM.

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