I'd put Jermell at 50/50 against GGG at 160. Jermell would be moving up to MW for the first time, so there's that. The rest of the guys, I'd have to examine individually. Like I said, 160 is way lesser than 147 in terms of quality right now... so any fighter where I'd favor GGG at 160 isn't a glowing endorsement of GGG, as it is a slight on the general quality of fighters at the top of the division at the moment.
So you wouldn't call a Ginger win a remarkable achievement, but rather a very good win. Fair enough. My opinion's different. If there hadn't already been a precedent, I might be inclined to agree. But they've already fought twice. The first time GGG was robbed, as have other fighters that have fought Ginger in Vegas.
I continue to mention GGG's age, because it's common knowledge that a fighter at age 40, especially below heavyweight, is pretty much beyond his prime. You use the titles to counterargue the age... and I just don't see the relevancy. I've already spoken as to the state of 160 nowadays vs let's say... 147. There's no comparison. Logic tells me that if 160 had the same amount of talent at the top as 147 does now, it's entirely feasible GGG doesn't have any belts today.
Weight is a no-brainer. Ginger may be coming down from a weight he just fought at... but Ginger's wheelhouse is at 168. Anyone who doesn't believe Ginger will rehydrate considerably for the GGG fight is out to lunch. Saying it's "not unthinkable" GGG could have success at 168 is just that... conjecture. No basis. The fact is GGG has fought at 160 for his entire career. There is usually a reason why a fighter refuses to go up in weight even one division.
"Other fighters have beaten Canelo in Vegas"? Ok. From an argument perspective, we both know you're reaching. A grand total of TWO fighters have gotten decision wins over Ginger in Vegas. The first one gave Ginger a shutout. One of the easiest fights he's had, said so by Floyd himself. Yet one of the three judges saw it as a draw, making what should've been a wide UD into a majority decision. The other was Bivol. Not even Ginger's corrupt judges could manage to steal that one away from Bivol. I can easily imagine tears welling up in their eyes as they handed in their scorecards, which by the way were closer than warranted. So yes... other fighters have beaten Ginger in Vegas. We all know that's the only thing you care about because surrounding arguments don't mean anything to you when you're trying to make a point.
I'm not ignoring the fact that GGG would be a tough fight for anyone else other than Ginger at 160. Not "around the weight". Let's be specific here. At 160. IMO, he's got no business at 168, and Ginger will prove that point.
I will continue to reiterate the factors I've considered in stating that GGG should be a walk in the park for Ginger:
- WEIGHT - GGG has fought his entire career at 160. He hasn't ventured to 168 for a reason. You can argue till the cows come home that he'll do ok there. It's an unknown. By contrast, Ginger has fought as high as 175. His younger body is more capable of going up and down in weight. You can bet he'll rehydrate to where he's very much bigger than GGG at fight night.
- AGE - Mentioning GGG's two titles has nothing to do with the fact that he's 40 years old, an age that all boxing experts agree is way past a boxer's prime. This shouldn't even be up for discussion. Ginger on the other hand is in his prime. Case closed.
- PRECEDENTS - What more proof do you need than their first two fights? GGG was robbed in the first one, as have many other fighters before him. It's a given that Ginger doesn't lose decisions in Vegas. Only Floyd and Bivol accomplished that... and I've already explained the reasons why.
So basically you have an over-the-hill fighter, who has already been screwed twice in Vegas against this very same fighter... is moving up in weight for the first time... who KNOWS he needs a knockout to beat Ginger in Vegas...
am I leaving something out?
By the way, knowing you need a knockout to win basically changes your whole fight strategy. You take more chances... you become more offensive, sacrificing a bit of your defense.
This is what leads me to believe that this time Ginger will win by knockout.
From here on out I will just copy/paste my reasons. I'm getting tired of typing.