I think Shogun vs Jones is an incredible match up. Jones is on top of his game and has looked unstoppable against lesser competition, while Shogun has looked terrible coming off of injuries in the past. If Shogun were healthy, I'd give it to him without much hesitation, but "Healthy Shogun" shows up as often as "Motivated Penn". This is the best time for Jones to fight him.

Jones has a clear wrestling advantage, Shogun has superior BJJ and striking (by a WIDE margin), but Jones' reach will make it difficult to get in close. We've seen a strong wrestler stifle a Jiu-Jician's guard many times, but Jones likes to leave his arms out there (see Vera fight). This ought to be a close fight, but I'm going with Shogun by (T)KO in the 3rd or 4th.

Jones hasn't fought a single good striker, Shogun's the best in the division. I see Shogun staying outside, throwing low leg kicks and overhand rights. I think he'll hurt Jones's lead leg early and often, then threaten with leg locks and armbars enough to make Jones worried about going to the ground. Then, when he's mentally broken, go classic berserker mode.

Rest of the main card:
Faber via sub, round 2
Marquardt via clear UD or late stoppage
Miller via sub, round 3
Schaub via brutal KO, round 1

What do you guys think?