With the Lights out, the nightmare comes....

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By Chris Ackerman, BRC (Sep 1, 2006) Photo © German Villasenor
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With September 2 just days away, the time for talking is through. James Toney has a big mouth and has spent the past months spewing all the venom, trash and ferocious insults he could muster at the ominously placid Samuel Peter. Generally, Lights Out’s tirades have been permeated with underlying humor and while biting, his tongue-in-cheek style could been accepted as psychological warfare. Leading up to this fight, however, things may have gone a little bit too far and Toney’s remarks seem personal and hate-filled. Maybe he found it necessary to cross certain lines in order to get
a rise out of Peter or get in his head, maybe he believes the things he has said. All the jawing is on the record, and the only thing left is for the fighters to back it up in the ring. Here’s how it breaks down:

Obviously this fight is one that comes down to size and power versus skill, technique and experience. Samuel Peter is a beast. At 6’1” in height, he routinely enters the ring in the 250-pound range, and has stopped 22 of 27 opponents. He also managed three knockdowns en route to dropping a unanimous decision to Wladimir Klitschko nearly one year ago. His chin is well-proven as he absorbed Klitschko’s best before finally getting wobbled 11 rounds in. Physically, Peter holds the advantages over James Toney.

James Toney has lost 4 fights out of 77, the last time being 1997. He is an 18-year veteran, a multi-division world champion and a lock for the Hall of Fame. Dangerous doesn’t begin to describe a fighter with Toney’s ring smarts, patience, defense, hand speed and accuracy. Standing just 5’9”, Lights Out has set out to conquer the heavyweight division but as yet has achieved only moderate success. Skill-wise, he is without equal among the current roster, but questions abound about his conditioning and shape. That a man who is taller laying down than standing up manages to remain a legitimate threat at heavyweight is a tribute to his phenomenal talent.

Leading up to Rahman-Toney, I laid out my position on James Toney chances at becoming world heavyweight champion. I lauded everything about the man, from skill, chin and talent to his brilliant trash-talking and charisma, before suggesting that he cannot handle the size and power of the modern super heavyweights. That includes Samuel Peter.

Since the foray into the unlimited division, James Toney has secured wins against Evander Holyfield, Dominick Guinn and Rydell Booker. In all three cases, his opponents weighed within a pound of 220. Upon moving up to battle larger men, difficulties began. The fight with John Ruiz is officially listed as a no-contest, following Toney testing positive for a banned substance, after originally a UD in his favor. Toney did manage a draw with the large and powerfully built Hasim Rahman. Impressive? Considering that Rahman was recently dispatched with by Oleg Maskaev, the luster of squeaking out a draw fades somewhat.

More so than any other factor, the speculation among fans and the media seem to revolve around James Toney’s conditioning. It seems the consensus is that should Toney manage to step through the ropes at a ‘lean’ 220 or so, he will have little trouble out-boxing the larger Peter and thereby cruise to an easy decision. Conversely, if he tips the scales in the high 230’s and comes in with pudding oozing from his pores, the possibility of him fading and even gassing out becomes very real. Conjecture in this vein indicates a belief that this is Toney’s fight to lose and that he alone controls his own destiny for this fight. I disagree.

As far as James Toney’s weight issue is concerned, come Saturday he’s damned if he do and damned if he don’t. If Toney comes in heavy, it will make him slightly more difficult to push around and bully. However, Peter is simply too big and too strong to have any trouble overpowering him. The disadvantages in terms of stamina that Toney will face far outweigh any edge more weight might provide. Having said that, coming in at 220 or below will offer improved endurance, but at the expense of giving up any kind of anchor effect gained from increased size.

Of the two strategies or options, coming in lighter is obviously the better choice, but regardless of the 15 or so pounds in question, Toney’s game plan is entirely predictable. He will let Sam Peter expend energy coming forward, he will lay against the ropes blocking and bobbing and he will counterpunch on the inside. Questions abound about Peter’s fitness level as well, and some point to his exhaustion in the closing rounds of the Klitschko fight as an area of weakness for Toney to exploit. However, that fight was against a comparably sized man with heavy hands and involved a great deal of grappling.

While it is extremely unlikely that Toney can stop Sam Peter, what remains to be answered is whether he can withstand the assault of the much stronger opponent and rack up enough points in the process to get the W.

Considering all the arguments on both sides, I like Samuel Peter in this fight. I know he comes wide with his punches, I know he lacks the technical brilliance of his opponent and I know James Toney has all kinds of slick defense and inside game…but I just don’t believe he will be able to handle the power, aggression and relentlessness. The strength differential and sheer size disparity Lights Out faces are exacerbated by the fact that Peter knows he needn’t concern himself with incoming fire. If Toney gets it done, I’ll be very surprised…and very very impressed, but I just don’t see it happening.

Lights out, James.