Miranda-Pavlik: Four keys to victory!

There’s nothing quite like a showdown between two rising contenders that both pack a big punch. And with middleweight champion Jermain Taylor fighting on the same card after Edison Miranda and Kelly Pavlik lock horns Saturday night, the stage will be set for a logical challenger with clearly established credentials that cannot be ignored.

For while Taylor faces a prohibitive underdog in Cory Spinks in the main event, and a loss by him would probably rank right up there with Ethiopia turning back Mussolini’s forces, Pavlik and Miranda have a pretty rough match on their hands, which is why it will almost surely steal the show. Unlike “Bad Intentions” squaring off against the former welterweight and resembling a snake-eats-mouse debacle, Miranda-Pavlik is snake-eats-snake, and both figure to take some serious licks if they want to emerge victorious.

Miranda and Pavlik are the kind of no-nonsense fighters fans used to enjoy by the dozens. Both bring a knockout-first attitude into each bout, and overpower opponents on the premise that the other guy will fall first if forced into enough of exchanges of leather.
Sometimes it only takes one, as Pavlik, 30-0 (27 KOs) showed often in his early career while building a reputation as the sport’s latest in a long line of lanky, angular punchers, or when Miranda dusted off journeyman Willie Gibbs with one massive right hand in his HBO debut in December.

Here’s the four factors that will determine this bout, which no doubt will have knowledgeable boxing fans going to the fridge between rounds instead of during them (which may have happened during a certain pay per view outing lately..,hell, it was so “tactical” you might have driven to the store in the full confidence you wouldn‘t miss anything).

The Big Back-Up
At 6’2, Pavlik fights pretty well at medium and close range, generating exceptional power from his long limbs to land big shots on opponents and break their will. He isn’t afraid of trading and muscling guys from anywhere, and this makes him exciting because he invariably will get hit doing so.

Meanwhile, Miranda, 28-1 (24 KOs), seems to operate effectively from a come-forward approach, predicated on charges and bursts of energy, then circling around and waiting for another chance to unload. He isn’t a particularly gifted boxer, as was shown during his so-so performance in his last outing, a ten round decision against Allan Green and in his sole loss, a rough decision defeat to WBO champ Arthur Abraham. In that fight he lost five points for fouls and did fairly well but Abraham was able to make him look amateurish in spots with his wild swings and misses.

This is why this bout has can’t-miss written all over it. The first guy to make the other one back up will have a big advantage in implementing their offense, though Pavlik can box more effectively if he can’t come forward. In fact, if Miranda can’t assume the dominant role in this subtle struggle early, he may be in for a rough night of trying to cross a lot of real estate, in a manner which he hasn’t shown himself to be that effective. He’s used to being the bully and needs to fight that way to be at his best.

Going All-In Early
When they fall asleep at night, punchers generally don’t worry about much in life. The prospects of facing a slickster and/or a southpaw can always be mitigated by the assumed premise that the guy might beat them, but he’ll have to run and generally fight a stinker of a bout in doing so. They can always fall back on hoping for a big shot to land. But punchers, deep in those places they don’t want to talk about with anybody, must surely contemplate what it’d be like to face a dose of their own medicine against a guy that might be able to ring their bell the way they’ve made a living ringing others’.

That’s why the urge for both men to try for a big finish during an early or mid-rounds opportunity could be extremely tempting, and be like a poker player going all-in on a hand he might otherwise have played more cautiously. Pavlik’s best outing, a textbook, sixth-round stoppage of durable veteran Bronko McKart in July, was a combination of a puncher’s prudence who knew his bigger hammer would get the job done. McKart couldn’t hurt him, and the younger Pavlik simply pressured with a nice mix of power shots and punch placement until McKart finally wilted. It was a textbook example of how a younger hitter can break down an experienced stylist.

But against Miranda, Pavlik might feel the urge to get the job done early and get the heck out of Memphis with a career-propelling win. Miranda is heavy-handed and while technically limited if forced to box, he can turn everything around with one shot if you give him enough time. And Miranda, if he can’t bully Pavlik early, might be equally tempted to floor the gas pedal and go for a big finish if he lands one of those Colombian specials upside the Ohioan’s head. Punchers don’t mind spending several rounds in the ring with people who can’t hurt them. It’s running into own of their own ilk that necessitates more urgent action should an opening develop.

That’s why the early opportunities for both men carry a hefty risk-reward basis. There’s the chance to get rid of the guy quick, and also the chance to expend a lot of gas that could cost them should they fail to finish the job.

Pacing
While both men have gone deep in tough bouts -- Miranda against Abraham and Green, Pavlik against McKart -- neither have proven himself to have high-level stamina in a distance match. Pavlik has only gone the distance three times, the most notable an eight-round decision over Ross Thompson. Miranda, meanwhile, tired against Abraham and Green and was somewhat reduced to a free-swinger instead of working tactically to set up an attack.

That’s a real wild card in this bout, especially with the taxing physical and mental effects of each guy facing a puncher and big shots landing both ways. Both could be keyed up which can tire a fighter. If the bout passes the halfway point, mental adjustments will have to be made on both ends to ensure precious energy isn’t being used without yielding maximum results. Miranda can’t simply close his eyes and swing, which seems to be the case when he can’t get rid of some guys early. And Pavlik, if he can’t force the action, must use his jab and range to chip away at Miranda while avoiding getting sucked into heavy exchanges.

Intangibles
The stakes are high here and both men surely know that the public would love to see the winner face Taylor, especially given that his bout with Spinks has all the signs of the kind of fight that will force fans to ask, “Why is the champ taking on this guy instead of one of those dudes in the other match?” While Taylor deserved rightful props for beating Bernard Hopkins twice and drawing with Winky Wright in consecutive bouts, no matter what the scorecards were, he’s since squandered some of that momentum in decision undersized Kassim Ouma and now giving the undeserving Spinks a shot. He needs Miranda or Pavlik if he’s going to get back on the post-Wright track.

Pavlik has had a long march to this point in his career, often taking on opposition many felt wasn’t as good as it should have been, given the skills and imposing power he’s shown since he turned pro nearly 7 years ago. It’s been a long road for “The Ghost” and his outing against McKart, and an impressive January stoppage of the tough Jose Luis Zertuche, he’s ready for the jump.

Miranda is equally hungry, no doubt. But his penchant for fouling against Abraham cost him the title, even though it probably should’ve gotten him disqualified instead (it’s hard to remember another bout where a guy lost five points for straying outside the rules, as three deductions is the standard line where a guy gets DQ’d).

Fighters who foul that much tend to be easily frustrated when things don’t go their way -- as opposed to a foul master like Bernard Hopkins, who always seemed to do it under ideal circumstances, such as when the ref was on the far side, or in subtle fashion to initiate an obvious retaliation. Miranda is pretty rugged and tough, however, and the Green bout doesn’t figure to resemble how Pavlik will attack him. Kelly isn’t going to be sticking and circling and playing keep away. He’s coming to fight. How Miranda stands up under that gives him one heck of a chance to get rid of the memories of his loss to Abraham and show that he’s the right guy to challenge for the title. The benefit of experience is knowing what to do when a situation arises in the future, and Miranda certainly showed mental toughness taking on Abraham in Germany, which is a scenario few fighters willingly sign up for. How Miranda deals with getting hit with Pavlik’s bombs early could elicit a far different reaction than getting frustrated by the clever Abraham, or the ever-moving Green. Punchers, after all, feel far less offended by getting drilled in the face then having to take the demeaning stance of chasing down someone who refuses to stand and trade, and instead threatens to box their ears off.

Either way, both men figure to run into some serious obstacles en route to what should be, at worst, a good fight, maybe even a great one. And whoever digs down deeper has a bona fide case for being the next challenger to the middleweight throne, one hopes.

Pavlik by Knock out 8)

I hope so

He is a classy guy. If you are iunrtesed in his personallity look him up on YOUTUBE at a St Patricks day parade. Pavlik all the way.

7 hrs and 15 mins. I'm losing my mind here waiting for this fight.

Edison "Skeleton Key" Miranda TKO7

Quote:

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Originally Posted by zekebox

7 hrs and 15 mins. I'm losing my mind here waiting for this fight.

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No shat