Calzaghe vs. Kessler: The Prediction

The "Viking Warrior" is seven years younger than Calzaghe and that disparity seemed to show a bit against Bika. Against Manfredo, in a fight that clearly was stopped too soon, The Welshman showed super-fast hand speed, but many of his “blows” were more slap than punch. Moreover, the confused Manfredo simply stood there and covered up offering nothing in return. The unbeaten Dane knows full well that Calzaghe's high output of punches includes an inordinate amount of slaps. Kessler is no Manfredo.

Kessler's KO percentage is a handsome 74%, while Calzaghe's is the same. Yet I keep coming back to age vs. youth and the possibility that Kessler may be peaking while Joe has already reached and perhaps passed his. If so, this could spell trouble for the "Italian Dragon." Still, he is a very difficult fighter to beat. He's got a great chin, great stamina, and, of course, that handspeed. He also has a high boxers’s IQ

Whenever I see one elevator going down and one going up, I always go with the guy who is on the upward ride. I do not think that’s the case here. Calzaghe is not yet on a downward ride; in fact, he just might be at the top of his game, albeit at an unusually ripe age.

The Outcome

Calzaghe does not have the one-punch power of Kessler and this could prove pivotal for Mikkel. On balance, however, I see Calzaghe getting into his rhythm early and avoiding Kessler bombs with great ring movement and acumen. I see him peppering the Dane with enough punches, many in lightening combinations, to gain a close decision. That said, the fight has the potential to be overly strategic and cerebral and this could translate to something other than the exciting engagement most are expecting or at least hoping for. Heck, the odds on this fight going the distance have to be pretty darn good.

The bookmakers have made Calzaghe a 1/2 favorite coming in, likely influenced by the fact the bout's location is in Cardiff where some 70, 000 fans will be screaming their support at the Millennium Stadium. Reportedly, about 5,000 Danish fans will be making the journey, and I may be joining them as well (coming by way of Geneva).

My heart says Kessler; my brain says Calzaghe by close decision, though a draw is a distinct possibility.

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