Pacquiao-Diaz Possible Fight Scenarios
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Sun, 22 Jun 2008 18:18:00
The Ultimate Breakdown: Pacquiao vs. Diaz
by Don Leopoldo
The clock is ticking closer to the LETHAL COMBINATION boxing event on Saturday at Mandalay Bay Resort & Casino in Las Vegas, Nevada, USA. Boxing fanatics around the world are very excited for the card’s main event between Filipino boxing superstar Manny “Pacman” Pacquiao against the World Boxing Council Lightweight Champion David Diaz.
This is the Pacman’s first crack in the lightweight division and there are a lot of possible scenarios that could play out. There are questions that need to be answered in this duel. Will Manny keep his knockout power at lightweight? Will he be slower? Will he be aggressive and slug it out with Diaz in the middle of the ring? Or will it be a tactical match like what happened in Pacquiao Vs Barrera II and Pacquiao Vs Marquez II?
Let us analyze the possible scenarios that could play out in this mega fight based on the following factors:
1. PUNCHING POWER
2. HAND SPEED
3. ACCURACY
4. ENDURANCE
5. PUNCH RESISTANCE
POSSIBLE FIGHT SCENARIO # 1
MANNY PACQUIAO:
1. PUNCHING POWER: (+)
2. HANDSPEED: (+)
3. ACCURACY: (+)
4. ENDURANCE: (+)
5. PUNCH RESISTANCE: (+)
DAVID DIAZ:
1. PUNCHING POWER: (+)
2. HANDSPEED: (+)
3. ACCURACY: (+)
4. ENDURANCE: (+)
5. PUNCH RESISTANCE: (+)
If this scenario plays out, it should prove to be high octane fight. With Manny’s power, speed, accuracy, endurance and punch resistance up to par with the lightweight division, he should make a good account of himself.
Meanwhile, David Diaz should be carrying the heavier punch, especially considering the fact that he used to fight as a light welterweight.
This is the best fight scenario from an ordinary fan’s perspective, but it’s highly unlikely. Something has got to give in this fight, so let us tackle the probable weaknesses of these fighters in other more likely scenarios.
X-FACTOR: The fighter who dictates the tempo will win the fight.
POSSIBLE FIGHT SCENARIO # 2
MANNY PACQUIAO:
1. PUNCHING POWER: (-)
2. HANDSPEED: (+)
3. ACCURACY: (+)
4. ENDURANCE: (+)
5. PUNCH RESISTANCE: (-)
DAVID DIAZ:
1. PUNCHING POWER: (+)
2. HANDSPEED: (-)
3. ACCURACY: (-)
4. ENDURANCE: (+)
5. PUNCH RESISTANCE: (+)
This is the most probable scenario that’s going to play out from this writer’s perspective.
We must consider the fact that Pacman started his pro boxing career as a lanky 106 pounder. Now, he has muscled up into the lightweight division. Something has got to give in his arsenal. His power should be diluted at this weight.
David Diaz is not considered as a power puncher, but considering the fact that he used to fight as a light-welterweight should make one think that he definitely carries a heavier punch than he’s credited for. When he tags Manny, it should stun and hurt the Filipino icon. If Marquez can make Pacman’s legs wobble, I expect Diaz to be capable of doing the same thing, especially if he lands a clean punch.
The redeeming factor for Manny is that he still has his dynamic hand speed. It should surprise Diaz from time to time. A knockout is even possible if a sneaky left straight gets through the defense undetected.
X-FACTOR: Defense will be a decisive factor in this scenario. The fighter who gets hit on a regular basis will kiss the canvas in the later rounds.
POSSIBLE FIGHT SCENARIO # 3
MANNY PACQUIAO:
1. PUNCHING POWER: (+)
2. HANDSPEED: (-)
3. ACCURACY: (+)
4. ENDURANCE: (+)
5. PUNCH RESISTANCE: (-)
DAVID DIAZ:
1. PUNCHING POWER: (-)
2. HANDSPEED: (-)
3. ACCURACY: (-)
4. ENDURANCE: (+)
5. PUNCH RESISTANCE: (+)
This is the second most likely scenario. Diaz stays true as advertised as a fighter with below average power, mediocre hand speed and a slugging style that lacks accurate punching. His only real advantage in this fight is to hope that Manny’s chin won’t hold up against the sheer weight of a bigger guy’s volume punches.
Manny’s power should prevent his opponent from completing his coming forward style. If he lands that left straight with authority, Diaz’s knees should buckle and possibly go down for the count.
X-FACTOR: If Manny lands that powerful straight left hand consistently in the match, a knockout is bound to happen. But if Diaz doubles up on his defense, it could be a long night for the two fighters.
POSSIBLE FIGHT SCENARIO # 4
MANNY PACQUIAO:
1. PUNCHING POWER: (+)
2. HANDSPEED: (+)
3. ACCURACY: (+)
4. ENDURANCE: (+)
5. PUNCH RESISTANCE: (-)
DAVID DIAZ:
1. PUNCHING POWER: (-)
2. HANDSPEED: (+)
3. ACCURACY: (-)
4. ENDURANCE: (+)
5. PUNCH RESISTANCE: (+)
This is the scenario that most Pacman fans should hope. Bur I would still give a (-) in the PUNCH RESISTANCE category because of the uncertainty of fighting a much bigger boxer.
If the Filipino icon’s awesome arsenal of power, speed, accuracy and endurance remains, it should be a short night for his opponent. But if Manny decides to box, then we will probably see a repetition of the Pacquiao Vs Barrera II.
X-FACTOR: Being the natural lightweight, Diaz may possibly match up very well against Manny in the hand speed category. This should prove to be an important factor if the fight goes to the scorecards.
link: http://boxingherald.com/news/117/ARTICLE/1249/2008-06-22.html
