Do counter-punchers usually win rematches?

Recently I read somewhere that counter-punchers tend to win rematches of close fights because counter-punchers win by timing their opponents and the first fight usually allows the counter-puncher to learn the timing of the opponent's punches and that carries over into the second fight (See the Floyd Mayweather v. Castillo rematch and to a lesser extent the JMM v. Diaz rematch (just that it was close in the first fight until the KO which happend because JMM learned Diaz's rhythm)).

I ask this because people are saying Paul Williams has the edge in rematches because of his win against Quintana in a rematch, but if you look at the first Sergio Martinez v. Paul Williams fight, I think you'll see that toward the last third of the fight, Sergio begins to time Paul. I wonder if that will continue into the rematch? Now I'm a little put off by Sergio's weight thirty days before the fight coupled with Paul's request for a catchweight. But that may not be an issue if Sergio effectively times Paul.

What other examples were cited from what you read? You'd need a large number of fights to give it any validity.

I would expect the form to be confirmed in most rematches in most cases, even if the fights are close.

Roy Jones did not do much counter punching when he destroyed Montell.

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Originally Posted by Fenster

What other examples were cited from what you read? You'd need a large number of fights to give it any validity.

I would expect the form to be confirmed in most rematches in most cases, even if the fights are close.

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not being facetious, do you mind explaining this?

The point that you are making is excellent. "counter-punchers win by timing their opponents and the first fight usually allows the counter-puncher to learn the timing of the opponent's punches and that carries over into the second fight" Bute and Andrade II is a good example i think. Or even Floyd vs JLC II - Mosley vs Vargas II - .. For every example we could find the opposite but anywyas.

Barerra vs Juarez rematch. Total domination.


I think its mainly because the guy who gives the counter puncher such a hard time. Comes into the second fight with the same gameplan, while the counterpuncher has adapted their idea. The power puncher thinks "Well hey it worked the first time lets do it again." when the counter puncher comes with a plan B C and D the guy before comes with the same gameplan A they had six months prior.

In rematches, fighters who got the most will and skill will eventually win.

Eubank vs Benn suggests the contrary but Barrera- Juarez was a good example

i think the reason counterpunchers tend to win so many matchups is because they tend to be more celebral and technical fighters. to be an effective counterpuncher, you've got to think alot in the ring and have a very good fight plan. you've got to also have incredible reflexes to time your attacking opponent.