Kirkland perhaps you would care to explain...

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Originally Posted by Lyle

"Unfortunately in this world there is no tooth fairy. And the government doesn’t create anything; it just redistributes. Whenever the government bails someone out of trouble, they always put someone into trouble, plus of course a toll for the troll. Every $100 billion in bailout requires at least $130 billion in taxes, where the $30 billion extra is the cost of getting government involved." - Arthur Laffer


All food stamps do is addict people to that entitlement program....in the real world, the one where I live and everyone else besides you live this magic money doesn't appear out of thin air it's taken from people who WORK for a living that doesn't help the economy

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On August 28, 2006, Art Laffer appeared on Kudlow & Company[4] to debate Peter Schiff, president of Euro Pacific Capital. Laffer made a bet with Schiff that there wouldn't be a recession, and that the housing bubble wouldn't bust in the next year or two. Both agreed to put their credibility on the line and the winner would receive a penny.
Laffer appeared almost two years after that interview, on "Real Time with Bill Maher", on October 24, 2008. Maher asked him, "Have you paid off that bet?" Laffer replied that he had not.

Arthur Laffer - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Sorry about the cut and paste........................

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Originally Posted by Lyle

"Unfortunately in this world there is no tooth fairy. And the government doesn’t create anything; it just redistributes. Whenever the government bails someone out of trouble, they always put someone into trouble, plus of course a toll for the troll. Every $100 billion in bailout requires at least $130 billion in taxes, where the $30 billion extra is the cost of getting government involved." - Arthur Laffer


All food stamps do is addict people to that entitlement program....in the real world, the one where I live and everyone else besides you live this magic money doesn't appear out of thin air it's taken from people who WORK for a living that doesn't help the economy

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I don't understand why posting a quote from a guy now regarded as a discredited joke answers my post. I know it hurts when you see money handed to black people Lyle but it's actually the best way you can spend stimulus money, as proven by economist who've been proved consistently correct over generations. You'd better hope it works too otherwise things look very grim indeed for anybody starting out in the world.

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Originally Posted by killersheep

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Originally Posted by Lyle

"Unfortunately in this world there is no tooth fairy. And the government doesn’t create anything; it just redistributes. Whenever the government bails someone out of trouble, they always put someone into trouble, plus of course a toll for the troll. Every $100 billion in bailout requires at least $130 billion in taxes, where the $30 billion extra is the cost of getting government involved." - Arthur Laffer


All food stamps do is addict people to that entitlement program....in the real world, the one where I live and everyone else besides you live this magic money doesn't appear out of thin air it's taken from people who WORK for a living that doesn't help the economy

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On August 28, 2006, Art Laffer appeared on Kudlow & Company[4] to debate Peter Schiff, president of Euro Pacific Capital. Laffer made a bet with Schiff that there wouldn't be a recession, and that the housing bubble wouldn't bust in the next year or two. Both agreed to put their credibility on the line and the winner would receive a penny.
Laffer appeared almost two years after that interview, on "Real Time with Bill Maher", on October 24, 2008. Maher asked him, "Have you paid off that bet?" Laffer replied that he had not.

Arthur Laffer - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Sorry about the cut and paste........................

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Here's what Greg Mankiw, George W Bush's chief economic advisor, had to say about Laffer and the supply side people :

N. Gregory Mankiw (1998), Principles of Economics (New York: Dryden: 0030982383).
Thinking Like an Economist: Why Economists Disagree: Charlatans and Cranks:
pp. 29-30: An example of fad economics occurred in 1980, when a small group fo economists advised presidential candidate Ronald Reagan that an across-the-board cut in income tax rates would raise tax revenue. They argued that if people could keep a higher fraction of their income, people would work harder to earn more income. Even though tax rates would be lower, income would raise by so much, they claimed, that tax revenue would rise. Almost all professional economists, including most of those who supported Reagan's proposal to cut taxes, viewed this outcome as too optimistic. Lower tax rates might encourage people to work harder, and this extra effort would offset the direct effects of lower tax rates to some extent. But there was no credible evidence that work effort would rise by enough to caues tax revenues to rise in the face of lower tax rates. George Bush, also a presidential candidate in 1980, agreed with most of the professional economists: He called this idea "voodoo economics." Nonetheless, the argument was appealing to Reagan, and it shaped the 1980 presidential campaign and the economic policies of the 1980s.... Congress passes the cut in tax rates... but the tax cut did not cause tax revenue to rise... tax revenue fell... government began a long period of deficit spending... largest peacetime increase in the government debt in U.S. history. Fads can make experts seem less united than the actually are... when the economics profession appears in disarry, you should ask whether the disagreement is real or manufactured... [by] some snake-oil salesman who is trying to sell a miracle cure...







Lyle.



People who have endorsed the Republican House caucus's objections to the stimulus package:

Donald Luskin, Chief Investment Officer, Trend Macrolytics LLC, Stupidest Man Alive EmeritusTM: "Government spending does not create incentives for labor, innovation and investment. Instead of spending $1 trillion in Washington, let Washington forgive $1 trillion in tax revenues to create incentives for millions of individuals and firms to get the economy going again, one dollar at a time."

People who have not the Republican House caucus's objections to the stimulus package:

Eddie Lazear, Chair, President's Council of Economic Advisers (George W. Bush)
Matthew Slaughter, Member, President's Council of Economic Advisers (George W. Bush)
Katherine Baicker, Member, President's Council of Economic Advisers (George W. Bush)
Ben Bernanke, Chair, President's Council of Economic Advisers (George W. Bush)
Harvey Rosen, Chair, President's Council of Economic Advisers (George W. Bush)
Kristen Forbes, Member, President's Council of Economic Advisers (George W. Bush)
N. Gregory Mankiw, Chair, President's Council of Economic Advisers (George W. Bush)
Randall Kroszner, Member, President's Council of Economic Advisers (George W. Bush)
Mark McClellan, Member, President's Council of Economic Advisers (George W. Bush)
R. Glenn Hubbard, Chair, President's Council of Economic Advisers (George W. Bush)
Paul Wonnacott, Member, President's Council of Economic Advisers (George H. W. Bush)
Richard Schmalensee, Member, President's Council of Economic Advisers (George H. W. Bush)
John Taylor, Member, President's Council of Economic Advisers (George H. W. Bush)
Michael Boskin, Chair, President's Council of Economic Advisers (George H. W. Bush)
Michael Mussa, Member, President's Council of Economic Advisers (Ronald Reagan)
Thomas Moore, Member, President's Council of Economic n SpriyAdvisers (Ronald Reagan)
Beryl Sprinkel, Chair, President's Council of Economic Advisers (Ronald Reagan)
William Poole, Member, President's Council of Economic Advisers (Ronald Reagan)
Martin Feldstein, Chair, President's Council of Economic Advisers (Ronald Reagan)
Jerry Jordan, Member, President's Council of Economic Advisers (Ronald Reagan)
William Niskanen, Member, President's Council of Economic Advisers (Ronald Reagan)
Murray Weidenbaum, Chair, President's Council of Economic Advisers (Ronald Reagan)
Burton Malkiel, Member, President's Council of Economic Advisers (Gerald Ford)
Paul MacAvoy, Member, President's Council of Economic Advisers (Gerald Ford)
Alan Greenspan, Chair, President's Council of Economic Advisers (Gerald Ford)
Gary Seevers, Member, President's Council of Economic Advisers (Gerald Ford)
Marina von Neumann Whitman, Member, President's Council of Economic Advisers (Richard Nixon)
Paul McCracken, Member, President's Council of Economic Advisers (Richard Nixon)

In fact, no current or former member of the President's Council of Economic Advisers-- Democrat or Republican, living or dead, sane or insane-- has signed up for the Republican House caucus's list of economists opposed to the stimulus package.

The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for unemployment benefits jumped to a 26-year high last week, according to government data on Thursday that pointed to a rapid deterioration in the economy.

Jobless Claims Hit 26-Year High; Productivity Spikes - Economy * US * News * Story - CNBC.com

US credit card delinquencies hit a record high in January, and further deterioration is likely as the economy slows down and unemployment rises, Fitch Ratings says.
Payments at least 60 days late rose almost half a percentage point last month to a record 3.75 per cent, said Fitch. Credit card lenders also wrote off loans to delinquent borrowers at close to record levels, and such “charge-offs” were expected to breach records in the coming months.



FT.com / Companies / Banks - US credit card delinquencies at record high






Feb. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Former Las Vegas card counter turned billionaire bond trader Bill Gross, co-chief investment officer of Pacific Investment Management Co., said the U.S. may slump into a “mini depression” unless policy makers spend trillions of dollars to spur growth.
“This economy needs support from the government, a check from the government in the trillions,” Gross said today in a Bloomberg Television interview from Pimco’s headquarters in Newport Beach, California. “There is a potential catastrophe if the U.S. government continues to focus on billions of dollars.”
President Barack Obama has proposed a stimulus package intended to spur growth estimated at as much as $900 billion. The U.S. economy shrank by 3.8 percent in the fourth quarter, the most since 1982 as consumer spending recorded the worst slide in the postwar era, the Commerce Department said last week.


Bloomberg.com: Worldwide




Feb. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Moody’s Investors Service is reviewing the ratings of $302.6 billion in commercial mortgage-backed securities as real-estate values drop and property owners fall behind on payments.

The U.S. recession is crimping consumer spending and hurting business growth, making it harder for commercial property owners to make their payments. Should Moody’s decide to cut the ratings, investors including banks and insurers may need to sell CMBS holdings to maintain required levels of capital.
“Property values declined sharply in 2008, and we anticipate further declines over the next 12 to 24 months,” Moody’s analyst Nick Levidy said in the statement. “Delinquencies on CMBS loans are also on the rise, and we expect the pace to accelerate as macroeconomic pressures take a toll on property cash flows.”


Bloomberg.com: Worldwide





Japan’s exports plunged by a record in December, signaling companies will be forced to shut factory lines and fire more workers, driving the economy deeper into recession.

Bloomberg.com: Japan



Warren heads the five-member congressional oversight panel overseeing the TARP, and said that the group on Friday will issue a report suggesting Treasury has significantly overpaid for the assets it has purchased from financial institutions. She said an analysis of 10 of the TARP transactions, when extrapolated for all of the purchases made in 2008, suggests Treasury paid $254 billion for assets worth approximately $176 billion, a shortfall of $78 billion.

"Treasury paid substantially more for the assets it purchased under the TARP than their then-current market value," Warren said.

TARP Watchdog: Treasury Overpaid For TARP Investments



The financial institution that owns the bond calculates the value at 97 cents on the dollar, or a mere 3 percent loss. But S.& P. estimates it is worth 87 cents, based on the current loan-default rate, and could be worth 53 cents under a bleaker situation that contemplates a doubling of defaults. But even that might be optimistic, because the bond traded recently for just 38 cents on the dollar, reflecting the even gloomier outlook of investors.


http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/02/bu...alue.html?_r=1



The US economy is suffering its steepest downturn since at least the 1970s and could descend into a depression, Jeff Immelt, General Electric’s chief executive, warned on Thursday.

He said businesses and consumers alike were struggling to contend with tumultuous markets and a financial-services industry under siege.

Unlike the other downturns that I’ve been a part of, this one is faced with limited liquidity,” Mr Immelt, GE’s CEO since 2001 told a conference. “Once you break through ’74-’75, you don’t stop ’til you get to 1929.”

FT.com / Companies / Industrials - GE chief warns on US depression threat

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-cont...s-post-ww2.png

The only thing I don't understand about the graph is why it is labeled post WWII, when all of those obviously are not........ nevermind, I get it.

It means downturns occuring after WWII.

Am I smart! :( :)

What happened right before those recessions rebounded
If you said raise taxes and put in money for stimulus,you would be correct.
Even the great and might Ray Gun rescinded his tax cuts

Q: How will we judge the Obama years????

A: Misery index (economics) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Spending ourselves silly will NOT stop the recession and propping up bad business won't help the economy either....that creates more confusion and instability.

You can post all the stuff you want to Kirkland but the majority of AMERICANS oppose this bill.

I take issue with borrowing a trillion dollars to help our economy. I think large portions of this bill are not pork but also not necessary. I'm all for helping people keep their homes and find jobs but I don't believe in bailing out banks/dealerships/anyone. Not every bank in America is full of toxic investments. Let these people fail. Someone else will come along and do it better and fill in the void. Lets give the market the opportunity to fix its self

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Originally Posted by VanChilds

I take issue with borrowing a trillion dollars to help our economy. I think large portions of this bill are not pork but also not necessary. I'm all for helping people keep their homes and find jobs but I don't believe in bailing out banks/dealerships/anyone. Not every bank in America is full of toxic investments. Let these people fail. Someone else will come along and do it better and fill in the void. Lets give the market the opportunity to fix its self

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You're GOD DAMN RIGHT!


They can pass the bill without Republican support....but the question we must ask is WHY WON'T THEY? Don't get me wrong, I am really happy if they decide not to go through with this....but you have to wonder.

What do you think will help the economy Lyle?

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Originally Posted by Lyle

Q: How will we judge the Obama years????

A: Misery index (economics) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Spending ourselves silly will NOT stop the recession and propping up bad business won't help the economy either....that creates more confusion and instability.

You can post all the stuff you want to Kirkland but the majority of AMERICANS oppose this bill.

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The traditional levers that governments use to control the economy no longer work Lyle. For the last thirty years governments have controlled the economy mainly by raising/lowering interest rates. But they've already lowered interest rates to effectively zero and everything is still in freefall.

I think we can both agree on tha above three sentences. There's nothing in there that isn't obvious fact.

But the economy is still in freefall. We've never seen numbers as bad as the ones we're curently seeing, employment/productivity/confidence/investment/etc. All the numbers indicate impending disaster.

We faced the same situation in 1930. At the time Hoover chose to sit on his arse and let the market sort itself out and we all know how well that worked out. If the government does nothing now a serious Depression with a capital "D" is inevitable. Even with the stimulus it may well happen but we may as well at leat try and avoid it. The trillion dollars they'll end up spending is a piddling amount compared to how much they're going to have to spend to bail the banks out anyway.

The GOP have prescribed a "middle class tax cut" as the answer to the problem. Let's have a look at how the tax cut would affect America's middle class :


http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3399/...2da5c3.jpg?v=0


As you can see it only really benefits middle class people who earn $10000 a week or more. And those middle class people got huge tax cuts for the last eight years which totally failed to produce economic growth but did create huge government budget deficits, part of the reason everything is so fucked right now. And so the GOP's answer is more of the same policies that have fucked things up so spectacularly. The beneficiaries of the cut are making $10000 a week/day according to the graph. They're already saving a portion of their income and in these troubled times a tax cut of a fraction of their daily wage will simply be banked, giving the economy zero stimulus.


Let's look at what John McCain 2008 economic advisor Mark Zandi says gives the best bang for the stimulus buck :

http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2008/10/zandi.gif

So it's clear that if we want to make an attempt to avoid a Depression, and I'm sure you'll agree with me that we should at least try, then massive government spending on things like infrastructure, food stamps, unemployment insurance etc. are the way to do it. That money is pumped into the economy, stimulating it, rather than put in a bank account somewhere, stimulating bugger all.

When they eventually pass the stimulus bill I will Write my opinion of it and the likely consequences over the next couple of years. I'll also do the same when they announce the next stage of the bank bailout. If anybody out there wants anything in this post or about the current crisis explaining then ask away and I'll explain it. Then in the future we can look back at what I have Written and marvel at my Infallibility. :)

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Originally Posted by AdamGB

What do you think will help the economy Lyle?

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Having the government step back and allow businessmen to do business....I don't think we should let them (and by them I mean both business AND government) go around all willy nilly like Clinton and W did. I think there should be not new laws and regulations but more oversight and more transparency in business and government.

Sure our infastructure could use a bit of a tune up but looking at the rest of the bill, I really don't think that crap does anything but say "Thank You" to all the liberals that support Obama. $6 BILLION for University rebuilding....have you looked at how much it costs to go to college lately? Do you think they really need that? If there is price gouging anywhere it's in higher education.

We're eventually going to have to pay some of this back I would just hope that the government guys would be a little bit more cautious with that kind of money instead of yelling and screaming about getting this bill passed.

I just want to park these two articles here for future reference for when I do one of my quote art thingys.


As the Fed continues to cross "traditional boundaries" in providing liquidity to various corners of the credit markets, Yellen said she was "absolutely open" to the idea of the central bank buying long-term Treasuries if it would help the overall functioning of the credit market.
Meanwhile, Yellen told reporters the Fed needed to fight back against the notion that its liquidity efforts would inevitably lead to higher inflation and higher interest rates, terming the notion "ludicrous."


Fed's Yellen sees dynamics similar to Depression | Reuters



Bank of America Corp. (BAC) (BAC) Chief Executive Ken Lewis capped off a week of defending his bank and his role in it on Friday by firing back against rumors that his company could be in danger of nationalization.
"It's absurd," Lewis said in an interview on CNBC, adding that he knows of no government officials who have talked about nationalizing the bank.




My Way News - BofA CEO Lewis says nationalization is 'absurd'

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Originally Posted by Lyle

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Originally Posted by AdamGB

What do you think will help the economy Lyle?

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Having the government step back and allow businessmen to do business....I don't think we should let them (and by them I mean both business AND government) go around all willy nilly like Clinton and W did. I think there should be not new laws and regulations but more oversight and more transparency in business and government.

Sure our infastructure could use a bit of a tune up but looking at the rest of the bill, I really don't think that crap does anything but say "Thank You" to all the liberals that support Obama. $6 BILLION for University rebuilding....have you looked at how much it costs to go to college lately? Do you think they really need that? If there is price gouging anywhere it's in higher education.

We're eventually going to have to pay some of this back I would just hope that the government guys would be a little bit more cautious with that kind of money instead of yelling and screaming about getting this bill passed.

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So you are making the assumption that big business operates in a more ethical way than the government is that correct? or are you saying it it the role of government to regulate business?

Shit I have to go to class, I was looking forward to this one too.