I am not a successful gambler. I always bet with my heart. I can't bring myself to bet against a team or boxer I like. With spreads I hate when your team wins but you still lose.
Printable View
I am not a successful gambler. I always bet with my heart. I can't bring myself to bet against a team or boxer I like. With spreads I hate when your team wins but you still lose.
I'm not wrong and I snigger at you for saying so.Quote:
Originally Posted by Silkeyjoe
Vendettos you are wrong too. There is a lot more margin in the round betting then in match betting so in the long run playing your type of bets will lose a lot more then playing neggetts type of bets. However, in the long run you will both lose money unless you are getting the price right.Quote:
Originally Posted by VendettosQuote:
Originally Posted by nuggetdotcom
Completely retarded!
Why would you bet on outright wins? Are you serious? That's where all the risk is.
Haye is 1/4 fav against fury so if you bet say £20 on the outright win you end up with £25 which is shocking return if you bet £20.
Risk losing £20 to win £25? Absolutely ridiculous.
The skill is in predicting how the fight will end or when the fight will end.
Predicting Haye to win in rounds 2, 3, 4, at 12/1, 10/1 and 10/1 respectively, now split your £20 between the 3 bets and stick a couple of safe ones on Fury.
£4 - 12/1 Haye round 2 - return = £52
£5 - 10/1 Haye round 3 - return = £55
£5 - 10/1 Haye round 4 - return = £55
£3 - 40/1 Fury round 9 - return = £123
£3 - 50/1 Fury round 10 - return = £153
Profit in all. And now you're risking £20 to win anything from £52 - £153.
If you're gonna bet an outright winner it needs to be the underdog, but again that comes with even more risk.
Firstly, I am good at predicting the round, which is half the battle.
Secondly, YES you will lose money if you don't have a clue about boxing, but again I must point out that I AM GOOD at predicting the round.
If you predict it and don't get it right once in 100 fights...... quit.
Not only do I predict it but if I don't get it right for 2 fights, and I get it right on fight 3 I always cover my losses.
Cheeky sod. ;DQuote:
Originally Posted by Rantcatrat@Fenster - You. ;DQuote:
Originally Posted by FensterName me a boxing "expert?"Quote:
Originally Posted by Rantcatrat
You should have entered the prediction contest if you're good at picking rounds.
Were is this boxing expert, I can't wait till he gets here.;D
There's loads of boxing experts on here.... aftertimers and hindsight merchants but stillQuote:
Originally Posted by Dia bando
The problem you have with that betting strategy is the other outcomes that could occur. There are many. Although less likely, any gambler knows they can and will come up.
You've covered about 6 of 30 different eventualities. With the most likely return just over double your stake. I doubt you would have an every other or better hit rate to make it profitable long term. I've tried to arb the round betting loads of times and it just doesnt work either, winning on points normally screws the numbers.
I agree with you there is no value in the odds on favourite bets, although sometimes there is good value laying the bet on betfair because the odds are too short.
Well then you are not arbing because if you arb you guarantee yourself no loss. There is loads of value in match betting. You just have to know your odds. For example my latest good value loser. I backed Malik Scott at 4/1 and 5/2 to beat Dereck Chisora. It lost but the price did not reflect his chances of winning the fight. I could have guaranteed a profit by backing Chisora at 6/5 the day of the fightQuote:
Originally Posted by 0james0
Quote:
Originally Posted by SilkeyjoeWell then you are not arbing because if you arb you guarantee yourself no loss. There is loads of value in match betting. You just have to know your odds. For example my latest good value loser. I backed Malik Scott at 4/1 and 5/2 to beat Dereck Chisora. It lost but the price did not reflect his chances of winning the fight. I could have guaranteed a profit by backing Chisora at 6/5 the day of the fightQuote:
Originally Posted by 0james0
That is why I wasn't arbing, as the numbers didn't add up!
A good strategy if you are into trading is to lay the favourite in a fight you know is much tougher than is being predicted, then as the war starts going, the odds get bigger and you can back the selection to win to lock in a profit.
If I was doing that bet of yours, I would have left off the Fury KO'S (as fun as they are to be on there) and have done a lay bet on Haye at Betfair. If you risk £4 on that, you would get your £20 back if anything happens but a Haye win. You could then do 8 £2 round bets, so a bigger spread, more chance of winning, and potentially some small winnings of say £4 - £15. But because I'm cautious, I'd probably put £5 on Haye points, then only do 5 small stoppage bets.
Smaller margins, but less chance of losing which is the whole point. Small and steady profits are the way forward, the alternative is that you win big on occasions, lose often and end up long term losing your betting pot. That way is more fun, but I think over the years, the bookies will always win on the bets that seem value.
You will winni the long run if you are actually getting value. Before you start betting you should start pricing the fights yourself to what you think is fair. They should add up to 100%. If you can get a price bigger then ur 100% u should add it to a sheet and keep track of how you do over say 200 bets. If you are up start betting. If your down work on your pricing. The majority of people will lose about 8% of their total stake. If you are playing round betting u will likely lose more.
@Silkeyjoe - will you please help me understand your "arb" point with more explanation?Quote:
Originally Posted by 0james0Quote:
Originally Posted by SilkeyjoeWell then you are not arbing because if you arb you guarantee yourself no loss. There is loads of value in match betting. You just have to know your odds. For example my latest good value loser. I backed Malik Scott at 4/1 and 5/2 to beat Dereck Chisora. It lost but the price did not reflect his chances of winning the fight. I could have guaranteed a profit by backing Chisora at 6/5 the day of the fightQuote:
Originally Posted by 0james0
That is why I wasn't arbing, as the numbers didn't add up!
A good strategy if you are into trading is to lay the favourite in a fight you know is much tougher than is being predicted, then as the war starts going, the odds get bigger and you can back the selection to win to lock in a profit.
If I was doing that bet of yours, I would have left off the Fury KO'S (as fun as they are to be on there) and have done a lay bet on Haye at Betfair. If you risk £4 on that, you would get your £20 back if anything happens but a Haye win. You could then do 8 £2 round bets, so a bigger spread, more chance of winning, and potentially some small winnings of say £4 - £15. But because I'm cautious, I'd probably put £5 on Haye points, then only do 5 small stoppage bets.
Smaller margins, but less chance of losing which is the whole point. Small and steady profits are the way forward, the alternative is that you win big on occasions, lose often and end up long term losing your betting pot. That way is more fun, but I think over the years, the bookies will always win on the bets that seem value.
Isn't the case that you lose if Fury beats Haye by anything other than a ninth or tenth round KO and if Haye knocks Fury out late or loses on points?
Google the definition of Gambling fella.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rantcatrat@Silkeyjoe - will you please help me understand your "arb" point with more explanation?Quote:
Originally Posted by 0james0Quote:
Originally Posted by SilkeyjoeWell then you are not arbing because if you arb you guarantee yourself no loss. There is loads of value in match betting. You just have to know your odds. For example my latest good value loser. I backed Malik Scott at 4/1 and 5/2 to beat Dereck Chisora. It lost but the price did not reflect his chances of winning the fight. I could have guaranteed a profit by backing Chisora at 6/5 the day of the fightQuote:
Originally Posted by 0james0
That is why I wasn't arbing, as the numbers didn't add up!
A good strategy if you are into trading is to lay the favourite in a fight you know is much tougher than is being predicted, then as the war starts going, the odds get bigger and you can back the selection to win to lock in a profit.
If I was doing that bet of yours, I would have left off the Fury KO'S (as fun as they are to be on there) and have done a lay bet on Haye at Betfair. If you risk £4 on that, you would get your £20 back if anything happens but a Haye win. You could then do 8 £2 round bets, so a bigger spread, more chance of winning, and potentially some small winnings of say £4 - £15. But because I'm cautious, I'd probably put £5 on Haye points, then only do 5 small stoppage bets.
Smaller margins, but less chance of losing which is the whole point. Small and steady profits are the way forward, the alternative is that you win big on occasions, lose often and end up long term losing your betting pot. That way is more fun, but I think over the years, the bookies will always win on the bets that seem value.
Isn't the case that you lose if Fury beats Haye by anything other than a ninth or tenth round KO and if Haye knocks Fury out late or loses on points?
There is always the possibility you'll lose. It's not a full time job.
The skill is in having enough knowledge to predict the outcome correctly.
I have more chance of winning than my dad who knows fuck all about boxing.
There is "value" in betting odds on. If you think a fighter is a 1/4 shot and 1/2 is offered you clearly have a "value" bet.
So @Fenster, are you saying that from experience you (personally) begin to articulate an expectation of what the odds might/ should look like?Quote:
Originally Posted by Fenster
Exactly.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jimanuel BoogustusSo @Fenster, are you saying that from experience you (personally) begin to articulate an expectation of what the odds might/ should look like?Quote:
Originally Posted by Fenster
Before I see what the bookmakers prices are I've already made my own price. So in real simple terms - If I make a fighter a 2/1 chance, once the bookies reveal their prices, if it's bigger than mine i'll bet, if it's shorter I wont.
If you are betting longterm, It doesn't matter WHO wins, it just matters whether or not you have the "correct" price (which can differ from one "expert" to another :))