What are the correct things Lyle? Unless you are claiming you are infallible like Kirkland Laing does, you must give time for this plan to take effect, before you criticize it.
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What they're saying is that when unemployment goes down the newly employed spend more money than they used to, boosting GDP and (in the current situation) demand for the dollar. I think. It depends on the wider context from wherever you got this from. Where do you get this shit from?
This guy told the world bear Stearns stock was worth buying a few days before they went bust, the financial system was fine, there'd be no recession etc. etc. etc. A bigger buffoon you'd be hard-pressed to find even with the intense competition from other financial buffoons. Why does anybody listen to clowns like this?
The stock market is reacting to the ongoing meltdown of the financial system and the worldwide fall in output of up to 40%, the fact that the banking system is insolvent, huge monthly job losses, huge falls in GDP. The same things are happening in the UK where a left-leaning government has been in power the whole time and also in germany where a conservative government took over just as the whole mess started, but the effects of the financial crisis/recession are just the same in those countries as they are in America.
This is just the latest bs from the right wing idiots who control US media. They're desperate to hang the whole mess created by eight years of epic dumbness, incompetence and criminality around the neck of a guy who's been president for about seven weeks. And guess who's still believing every word these guys tell you. Things are collapsing (and will continue to collapse) because of the way the economy and the financial system have been run over the past eight years, not because of anything that's happened in the last eight weeks.
Here's how clever Cramer and his business channel are Lyle. This comes from the Daily Show, which is the most accurate source of news available on US TV. When a comedy show is your best news source, you know you really are in trouble.
CNBC Gives Financial Advice | The Daily Show | Comedy Central
Forex | Forex Trading | Currency Trading | Forex Brokers
I was looking for an economic calander for my intranet that was premade, this was the first one.
Ah, that's why they're interested in the effects on the dollar. As a general rule if you're reading financial sites check their archives 12 months ago (when the crisis was getting started but lots of people were claiming it was nothing) and 24 months ago (when everybody was claiming things were great/getting better etc.
Here's the guy who thinks Obama is to blame for all this last july :
If you thought you heard Cramer call a bottom during Tuesday’s Mad Money, you were right.“It smells to me like something, in fact many things,” he said, “have at last changed for the better.”
“I am indeed sticking my neck out right here, right now,” Cramer continued, “declaring emphatically that I believe the market will not revisit the panicked lows it hit on July 15. And I think anyone out there who’s waiting for that low to be breached is in for a big disappointment, and [they’re] missing a great deal of upside.”
“Stop waiting,” he said, and “buy the next dip because I think it might be the last big one.”
The Dow was 11600 at the time.
3/9/09
Canada - Housing Starts
Actualhttp://ecal.forexpros.com/images/spacer.gif135.00K|Forecasthttp://ecal.forexpros.com/images/spacer.gif144.00K|Previoushttp://ecal.forexpros.com/images/spacer.gif154.00K
Determines the annualized level of new residential buildings that began construction during the last month. A high level of housing activity signals that the construction industry is healthy and that consumers have the capital to make large investments. More importantly, new housing activity creates an economic ripple effect as home owners buy goods such as appliances and furniture for their homes, and builders buy raw materials and hire more employees to meet demand. An upward trend has a positive effect on the country's currency as the housing market is a leading gauge for the overall economy.
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UK - RICS House Prices Index
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The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) House Price Balance determines the price change of homes in the UK. For instance, a reading of 50% means that 50% more surveyors reported a rise than reported a fall in prices. This leading indicator represents the percentage of chartered surveyors reporting a price rise in their designated area.
hmmm, there we go with that "positive effect on the nation's currency" again. We still don't know what that means. Killer, maybe you should try and email the guy who writes this stuff and ask him what he means by "a positive effect on the nation's currency". Probably he means "good for the economy", that would be a better way of saying it.
There's no point posting the day-to-day stuff. Everything is fucked and getting worse. The forecast is shitty with increased risk of shitty.
It's all Obama's fault.
"Buffett said the nation’s leaders need to emphasize a consistent message, and they should support President Barack Obama’s efforts to repair the economy"
Warren Buffett sees more jobs lost, backs President Obama - BostonHerald.com
Oh? Warren Buffett thinks it's Obama's fault? Or maybe he thinks Obama is going about things all wrong? Do you have any links or quotes or anything to support that?
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Buffett said the nation’s leaders need to emphasize a consistent message, and they should support President Barack Obama’s efforts to repair the economy.
Warren Buffett sees more jobs lost, backs President Obama - BostonHerald.com
The facts and the evidence appear to indicate the opposite. I'd ask you to provide evidence for your claim but we both know I'd be wasting pixels.
You don't think over half a million jobs lost every month, huge falls in production, global trade halving, huge and increasing losses by the banking system, the freezing of 40% of the world's credit, etc. etc. are having any effect on the stock market?
Oh you're always sooo right Kirkland and that's why a larger Capital Gains Tax, Cap and Trade regulations, and taking away the secret ballot for unionization will really help our economy....those are the points of contention that Buffet has and I am sure he has those for a good reason.
No one is saying anything bad about Obama (because they have seen what happens to guys like Santelli and Cramer, Barry sicks his thugs on them) only about his policies which are bad for the economy....sorry to tell you but Buffet a HUGE Democrat said Bush and Paulson did the correct things.
It's amazing how much wrongness you manage to pack into a few sentences.
Higher capital gains to 1990s levels will have as much effect on the economy as they did in the 1990s, a period when America saw its fastest economic growth for decades, balanced its budget, didn't suffer a financial meltdown and consequent depression, etc. etc.
Cap and trade and greater unionisation will both help the US economy greatly. They won't help corporate profits but seeing how corporations have just made Americans their indentured servants for the next couple of decades I don't think there'll be too many tears shed for them by Americans except for the clueless ones who listen to talk radio and are told that lower capital gains taxes for centimillionaires and billionaires will help the economy (against all the evidence of the last twenty years).
Nobody set any "thugs" on CNBC. All that happened was that a bunch of comedians took the piss out of them. You can watch the second and third parts of the pisstake here :
Jon Stewart Rips Into Jim Cramer Again (VIDEO)
Jon Stewart Slams Jim Cramer, Whole NBC Family (VIDEO)
The only Obama policies that are bad for the economy are the ones where he's carrying on Bush administration policies, like with the financial crisis. Everything else is a good policy. I didn't hear you complain when Bush was bailing out the financial system with ten trillion.
And Buffett isn't a Democrat. He's an independent.
Everything is fucked Lyle as you'll eventually realise. And you're going to spend most of your working life paying tribute to the government to pay the debts run up by slightly more legit versions of Bernie Madoff. But none of this is Obama's fault. He's making mistakes which will cost you more in the long run but the hole we're in wasn't created by him, it was created by the GOP over the last eight years.
The markets will continue to reflect the current situation, which is that the debts are so great that there isn't a political solution to the crisis, or even if there was it isn't affordable, or maybe there just isn't a solution. That's where we are right now.
Kirkland in the 1990's the economy was on the rise and not on the decline.....do we not need people to invest in these companies that are having troubles? Not all of them deserve their low prices.....I may just sink a couple hundred bucks in GE right damn now
We need to be rid of the Capital Gains tax all together.
Sure John Stewart can rip on Jim Cramer because EVERYONE knew the debt ratio of Bear Sterns and it was common knowledge that a business that was at the top of their field since 1923 was going to fold. John Stewart and Stephen Colbert are pretentious assholes who really don't mock news anymore they are news...Chris Matthews and Keith Olberman aren't far off from Stewart just a 100% in the bag for Obama pundit who doesn't care about anything other than riding that wave of fan approval.
Are you sure it's just a coincidence that anyone who says anything negative about Obama is just attacked from all sides???
1. Rush, sure he's the opposition but he's not an elected official and doesn't represent any vote against Obama. Neither W nor his people ever attacked Chris Matthews or that fucking prick Keith Olberman.
2. Rick Santelli, he's just a trader or a trader and a guy who is on tv he's irrelevant to Obama but he must have touched a nerve to get called out BY NAME by Robert Gibb who questioned what type of house Santelli has.....WHAT THE FUCK?!?!?! What type of House does Obama have and how much did he end up paying for it, I can bet you neither you nor I could get such a sweetheart of a deal.
3. Jim Cramer...ok so Cramer said for people to buy Bear Sterns, worse things have happened.
John Stewart has said and done some stupid shit before too I am sure, yet he figured he was fully qualified to bitch about Republicans or those people who simply disagree with Obama.
It's amazing that the same fucking people who have the "Dissention is the highest form of Patriotism" bumper stickers and the people toting the water for Mr. Obama.
If you eliminate CGT you just create another bubble, but more importantly you cost the country revenue which has to be replaced. But before I bother explaining the whole thing explain to me why abolishing CGT is a good idea. Explain exactly how it would benefit the economy. Nobody is going to invest in anything just because they won't eventually pay as much tax on any profits. Reagan cut CGT and investment fell to the lowest level since the US civil war. Clinton raised it and investment hit record levels. Why does the evidence disagree with you?
Bear folding was not common knowledge at all. If it was common knowledge why were the clowns who do stock punditry claiming it was a good investment the day before they went bust? Name one person who publicly said Bear was shaky even two weeks before they went bust.
Rush Limbaugh has publicly said he hopes the president fails, at a time when America is still fighting two wars. If somebody had said they hoped Bush failed a few years ago what would the reaction have been?
2. Santelli is a failed trader who is famous for standing on a stock exachage floor berating people who got 2% of a ten trillion bailout while surrounded by people who caused the crisis in the first place and then got 98% of the bailout and who would all be out of work if they weren't bailed out. That's why there's so much mockery of him.
3. You admit it was just people taking the piss and no thuggishness invlolved, excellent.
Don't forget to explain how abolishing CGT would help the economy. Use facts and evidence only in your answer and don't forget I'll be using them in my reply. Unless you can actually make a coherent argument you'll just end up being horribly wrong again.
3/12/09
France - CPI
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The Consumer Price Index (CPI) determines the rate of inflation (i.e., the rate of price changes) experienced by consumers when purchasing goods and services. An upward trend has a positive effect on the country's currency. CPI is one of the most closely watched indicators and will usually have a high impact upon release.The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve price stability; when inflation rises above an annualized rate of approximately 2%, they will respond by raising interest rates to bring prices down. Higher interest rates attract foreign investment, thus lifting demand for the country's currency.
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Switzterland - Interest Rate Statement
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Four times per year the Swiss National Bank (SNB) Governing Board meets to set the nation's short term interest rate (i.e., "three-month libor"). Shortly after the meeting they release a statement that contains the decided rate, a brief commentary of the economic conditions that effected their decision, and most importantly, clues regarding the outcome of future meetings. The decision on where to set interest rates depends mostly on inflation. The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve price stability; when inflation rises above an annualized rate of approximately 2%, they will respond by raising interest rates in an attempt to bring prices down. A rising trend in interest rates has a positive effect on the nation's currency. Short term rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation; traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how interest rates may change in the future. High interest rates attract foreigners looking for the best "risk-free" return on their money, which can dramatically increases demand for the nation's currency.
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USA - Core Retail Sales
Actualhttp://ecal.forexpros.com/images/spacer.gif0.70%|Forecasthttp://ecal.forexpros.com/images/spacer.gif-0.10%|Previoushttp://ecal.forexpros.com/images/spacer.gif0.90%
Derivative of Retail Sales that omits the Automobile Sales component. Retail Sales with the exclusion of this volatile component is thought to be a better indicator of the underlying trend in consumption. Automobile Sales make up roughly 25% of Retail Sales, but they can be very volatile from month to month and can distort the picture.
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New Zealand - Retail Sales
Actualhttp://ecal.forexpros.com/images/spacer.gif-|Forecasthttp://ecal.forexpros.com/images/spacer.gif-0.10%|Previoushttp://ecal.forexpros.com/images/spacer.gif-1.00%
Determines the worth of sales at the retail level. Traders pay close attention to Retail Sales as it is usually the first significant indicator of the month that relates to consumer behavior and is susceptible to surprises. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency as Retail Sales make up a large portion of consumption, which is a key driver of the economy and has a sizable impact on GDP.
OK this is a little more like it. The first three articles do a fairly good job of describing "Positive effect on nation's currency", because it really is the foreign component, investment and exports, which drives up exchange rates.
The last one, about an increase in retail sales in New Zealand having a positive effect on the nation's currency, is a bit of a stretch though. Sure you could argue that an increase in retail sales has an upward effect on inflation which leads to an upward effect on interest rates, which has an upward effect on foreign demand in risk free investments, which as an upward effect on exchange, but it don't mean it's gonna happen. For example, one could just as easily argue that the apparent increase in spending power would also lead to an increase in demand for foreign goods, which would have a downward effect on currency.
Perhaps we should just take a step back instead of analyzing the nation's currency effect. Since I get this from a Forex site it will certainly be focused on currency exchange and speculation based off of that. If anyone can tell me where to get a more general focus economic calender, I would greatly appreciate it.
Looking at these numbers I am very suprised to see the US core retail sales in positive territory. I fully expected with the amounts of layoffs and foreclosures that people would be padlocking their wallets. I understand that they aren't huge numbers, but there aren't any spending spree months coming up either.
Retail sales are given a big statistical adjustment in February as it's quietest month of the year. No telling if they're goosing the numbers.
But the big retail spending problem is this.
It's 70% of us GDP, 70% of the economy.
The US consumer has for decades been the engine of economic growth, buying the world's products and growing the global economy.
But since 1980 median wages have been static but living costs have risen, forcing the US consumer to go into debt to finance their lifestyles.
Over the past decade that debt has been secured on their houses, something that was rising in value and looked to be an ATM machine.
But now those houses are falling to half their value so the US consumer is now heavily indebted with no increase in earnings and can't borrow any more as their assets have halved in value.
So how is the economy going to pick up? It will do at some point but it'll probably be a dead cat bounce when it does, it's hard to see what's going to drive substantial future growth right now.
A catastrophic global financial meltdown is the only time ever investors don't care about how much tax they pay on their gains. What with them losing half their wealth in the last year and a bit they don't have much in the way of gains taxes to pay right now. They're scred right now and all they want to do is not lose any more of their wealth. The capital gains tax is the least useful tax cut that the government could make as it would have zero effect whatsoever on the current situation, it'd just be another multibillion dollar giveaway to the wealthiest 1% to go with the all the others that there have been since 1980. But that's why the GOP want it! It doesn't matter what the economic situation is, their answer to everything is always to cut CGT and income tax.
And the facts and the evidence show that tax cuts since 1980 have progressively severely damaged the US economy. The reason the economy is so screwed right now is that far too much of the economic pie goes to a small number of people who don't spend it, something that would create economic growth for everyone, but invest it, causing bubbles to form in bloated capital markets. And then burst. The last time wealth was so concentrated at the top as it is now was 1929. Go figure.
Right now the GOP don't even believe in cutting CGT. when it was obvious the economy was slipping into recession in 2008 Bush cut taxes as a stimulus but he only sent a cheque to people making 50K or less. That's because they'd spend it, pumping money into the economy unlike GCT whose recipients would save or invest it. When his back was against the wall Bush didn't cut CGT or income tax he mailed a cheque to Americans who most needed it, what Obama is getting criticised for now. But that's what needs to happen right now. A massive redistribution of wealth from the wealthy to everybody else in America.
Fair enough. I'll just make one final observation about currency. Very often the value of a nation's currency relative to another's is held up as a barometer to the health of that nation's economy, but it ain't quite so simple. For example, you could argue that a fall in the exchange rate of your country in and of itself in some ways will have a positive effect on the economy, in that it makes foreign goods more expensive, thus encuouraging domestic consumption, while at the same time making your own products more attractive to foreign purchasers. Oh wait, increased exports will then drive the exchange rate back up. :cwm3:
It's all a bit complicated, ain't it. Equilibrium is a very interesting topic.
It is an interesting and very complicated topic, there is definately a reason I don't dabble in Forex. I picture it as an abacus that is infinately long and all the scales move independently and constantly, but sometimes together :p Each scale is based on a different variety of vastly complex economic systems.
American International Group Inc. will pay $450 million in bonuses to employees in its financial products unit. That division was at the heart of AIG's collapse last fall, which compelled the U.S. government to provide $173.3 billion in aid to keep it running.
Chief Executive Edward Liddy told Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner in a letter dated Saturday that the next payments to employees of the financial products unit -- whose woes caused massive losses at the giant insurer -- are due on Sunday, and added "quite frankly, AIG's hands are tied."
AIG to Pay $450 Million in Bonuses - WSJ.com
The stock market has jumped a little in the last week or so. That's because this was informally announced a week ago :
The Financial Accounting Standards Board, pressured by lawmakers to change the fair-value rule blamed for worsening the financial crisis, proposed permitting companies to use “significant judgment” in valuing assets......
Fair-value, also known as mark-to-market accounting, requires companies to set values on most securities every quarter based on market prices. Wells Fargo & Co. and other companies argue the rule doesn’t make sense when trading has dried up because it forces banks to write down assets to fire- sale prices.
FASB Moves Toward Giving Banks More Flexibility on Fair-Value - Bloomberg.com
The rule was brought in after various banking/accounting scandals involving banks making up ficticious values for their dodgy assets. It now appears that part of the plan to get us out of the current mess is to again let banks ignore the shit-like quality of assets they own on their balance sheets and make up ficticious values for them. Hey presto, the banks become solvent again! Then it looks like they plan to try and reinflate the bubble that just burst. This is all going to end in tears.
The Financial Accounting Standards Board, pressured by lawmakers to change the fair-value rule blamed for worsening the financial crisis, proposed permitting companies to use “significant judgment” in valuing assets......
Haha - I cant believe this.......Talk about putting a band aid on the problem...
“We are a country of law”...... “There are contracts. The government cannot just abrogate contracts."
Lawrence Summers
Obama Chief Economic Advisor on AIG bonuses
March 15, 2009
The UAW announced Tuesday that it reached the tentative agreement with General Motors Corp., Chrysler LLC and Ford Motor Co. over contract concessions, as GM and Chrysler sent plans to the Treasury Department asking for a total of $39 billion in government financing to help them survive.
Concessions with the union are a condition of the $17.4 billion in government loans that the automakers have received so far.
AP
February 18th, 2009
But until we get that [the financial system] stablilised and working normally, we're not gonna see recovery. But we do have a plan. We're working on it. And I do think that we will get it stabilized, and we'll see the recession coming to and end probably this year.
Ben Bernanke
Federal Reserve Chairman
March 15th, 2009
Some observers have expressed concern about rising levels of household debt, and we at the Federal Reserve follow these developments closely. However, concerns about debt growth should be allayed by the fact that household assets (particularly housing wealth) have risen even more quickly than household liabilities............
House prices have risen by nearly 25 percent over the past two years. Although speculative activity has increased in some areas, at a national level these price increases largely reflect strong economic fundamentals, including robust growth in jobs and incomes, low mortgage rates, steady rates of household formation, and factors that limit the expansion of housing supply in some areas.
Ben Bernanke
Federal Reserve Chairman
March 8th, 2005
Given the fundamental factors in place that should support the demand for housing, we believe the effect of the troubles in the subprime sector on the broader housing market will likely be limited.............
Importantly, we see no serious broader spillover to banks or thrift institutions from the problems in the subprime market; troubled lenders, for the most part, have not been institutions with federally insured deposits.
Ben Bernanke
Federal Reserve Chairman
May 17th, 2007
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In our fury over the bonuses at AIG, we should not forget the PIGs there who pocketed millions while endangering the global economy.
One at the top of the list is 54-year-old Joseph Cassano, a Brooklyn cop's kid made good who went oh so bad.
As head of the Financial Products unit, Cassano racked up billions of losses while assuring investors it was nearly impossible for his unit to lose.
"It is hard for us, without being flippant, to even see a scenario within any kind of [rhyme] or reason that would see us losing one dollar in any of those transactions," he told investors.
Before he was finally fired last March, Cassano pocketed $280 million in cash and an additional $34 million in bonuses.
Under a "retirement" agreement marked "confidential," Cassano also got a $1 million-a-month "consulting fee."................
Joseph Cassano started out at Drexel Burnham Lambert under Michael Milken, "the Junk Bond King." Drexel imploded in 1990 and Milken landed in prison.
AIG promptly hired a team of Drexel people to start a Financial Products unit, Cassano among them. Cassano became the head and began dealing in securities known as "credit default swaps" out of one office in Wilton, Conn., and another in England, dubbed "the London casino."............................
Company auditor Joseph St. Denis became concerned about the Financial Products unit, but Cassano barred him from checking.
St. Denis later quoted Cassano as saying, "I have deliberately excluded you ... because I was concerned that you would pollute the process."
New York Daily News
March 17th 2009
According to a "brokercheck report" put out by the financial regulatory agency FINRA, the Justice Department in 2004 criminally charged Cassano's unit with helping another firm, PNC Financial Services, to conceal certain assets from its books. In the end, AIG came to a settlement with DOJ and SEC, in which it paid a fine -- $80 million. Had the SEC come down harder on Cassano and AIGFP, it's conceivable that the agency could have helped stop the practices that would ultimately destroy AIG and that contributed to the current financial crisis.
Wall Street Journal
March 18th, 2009
In Securities and Exchange Commission filings, AIG acknowledges that it is under federal scrutiny for possible fraud, and notes that it is cooperating with the government's probe.
Investigators are looking at statements from company leaders, who sometimes painted a sunny picture, even in the months and weeks before financial implosion.
ABC News
March 17, 2009
Despite my position and FSD',s and AP's interest in the issue, I had no
involvement with eiforts to value AIGFP's SSCDS portfolio. This was, in my
understanding, due to the actions of Mr. Cassano to exclude me from the SSCDS valuation pro..rr. During the final week of September of 2007, the final week of my employment at AIGFP, in a meeting with Mr. Cassano, the newly hired CFO of AIGFP and the AIGFP quantitative risk expert, Mr. Cassano made the following statement to me:
"I have deliberately excluded you from the valuation of the Super Seniors because
I was concemed that you would pollute the process."
My belief is that the "pollution" Mr. Cassano was concerned about was the
transparency I brought to AIGFP's accounting policy process.
Statement by Joseph St. Dennis, AIG chief auditor, to the Senate Banking committee inquiry.
October 4th, 2008
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3622/...d5c1aa0e_o.jpg
AIGFP chief Joseph Cassano
#1 the bonuses AIG paid out were less than what Merrill Lynch paid out earlier #2 The amount paid out was less than 1/10 of 1% of the bailout money.
This bonus mess is just a red herring....and Chris Dodd (DEMOCRAT) and Tim Geithner (DEMOCRAT) put it in the Omnibus bill that companies that were bailed out could keep giving bonuses. Calling in the GOVERNMENT APPOINTED CEO of AIG and berating him infront of Congress wasn't too smooth either.
I don't like the bonuses as they are in poor taste but people screaming for them to just seize those bonuses scare me....I don't want the government to get the idea that they can just take shit that people own not for taxation but "just because"
As always the Democrats talk a good game for the people but they NEVER deliver anything but higher taxes which they don't even fucking pay
Lyle, why are you defending AIG's actions?
Why are you blaming Democrats for AIG's actions?
Since we've seen two weeks of positive gains in the market does that mean the market is reacting positively to Obama's actions or do you only hold that view when the markets decline?
Furthermore, why are you forwarding a political agenda in a case of free markets misallocating funds?
I am not defending what they did, I am defending their right to do that if they so choose. It's not the government's place to say anything about bonuses....AIG is a scapegoat, if they really cared about where the money went #1 Everyone would have been up in arms over Merrill Lynch's bonuses and #2 CONGRESS PUT IT IN THE BILL (Democrat Chris Dodd and Tim Geithner specifically) THAT AIG COULD GIVE BONUSES......in the immortal words of Former DC mayor Marion Berry "Bitch set me up!"
I just want the government to ease up a bit...all companies aren't evil corporations looking to screw over the populus and if they were then what better role model do they have to look up to than the US Government?
Lyle you are defending what they did, those were not profits that their company earned. I notice that you are using the Fox buzzword Omnibus bill, please show something like a direct link to the verbage that states the money could be used for bonuses. What Merrill Lynch did was no better and you have a perfect right to be up in arms about that as well.
Link to the bill's verbage please.