Re: UK Prime Ministerial candidate debate
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Howlin Mad Missy
Quote:
Originally Posted by
hattonthehammer
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Howlin Mad Missy
Stephen Fry....I rest my case!
You shouldnt be posting on this topic missy
we all know women arent allowed to vote because a womans opinion doesnt really matter
Now, get back to washing those dishes and let the men get back to discussing pressing issues
;D;D;D
said in the manner of a man truly under the thumb and in fear of women...
never
As long as a girlfriend promises to keep her mouth shut and only speak up when asked a question ive no problems with letting her have a dinner with me and my mates;D;D;D
Re: UK Prime Ministerial candidate debate
Quote:
Originally Posted by
ryanman
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Originally Posted by
Fenster
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Originally Posted by
ryanman
I know quite a lot about this crap . Feel free to ask any questions relating to processes etc. I have a politics degree don't you know? ;)
:toff::toff::toff:
With your expertise in these opposame matters, can you tell me who is most likely to "win" the next debate?
The yellow man is now 1/2 favourite (5/2 blue 5/1 red). Now that people know who the yellow man is, surely that puts him under the cosh for the next show?
Do you think a blue or red bet is value? Thanks.
A few factors to consider here (as ever).
All things been equal I would still expect Clegg to 'win' the next debate due to some of the same factors that 'won' him the first debate, but by a much smaller margin as he now has expectations on him.
But the theme of the next debate is 'international issues' - something which should favour the incumbant (ie Brown). This theme should hurt Cameron as he has no actual experience on such matters and will be seen as a bit of a novice/lightweight on such issues. This is obviously an issue for Clegg too but he will be hurt less because the Lib Dems opposed the war in Iraq.
In terms of who I think will do best in the next debate I'm quite sure it will be Brown. But in terms of who will 'win' (as decided by polls) it will probably be Clegg again. I happen to think that in terms of who did best last night it was Clegg, Brown then Cameron. But the polls don't reflect that. That is Brown's main problem - the residual dislike of him plus the fact that the incumbant is the only one that has something to defend. He will have to absolutely kick arse to be given the win. But, I think that he represents a better shot than Cameron on this next debate. Basically because Cameron is caught between two stools. He can't attack Brown's foreign policies because he supported most of them but he also doesn't get the 'better the devil you know' effect that plays quite strongly in international issues.
So, in summary, Clegg is the safe bet but Brown is the value. Just don't back Cameron. (although Cameron probably has a better chance of coming second than Brown does, but has less chance of winning. Fenster will know what I mean).
On the face of it my advice looks bad. BUT...3 of the 4 major polls show Clegg as the winner. Actually one has it basically 30%,30%,30%. But Cameron won the yougov poll. Last time the bookies paid out based on the ICM poll (which Clegg won both times) but for some reason they switched to the yougov poll. Sorry Fenster.
Re: UK Prime Ministerial candidate debate
Quote:
Originally Posted by
ryanman
Quote:
Originally Posted by
ryanman
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Fenster
With your expertise in these opposame matters, can you tell me who is most likely to "win" the next debate?
The yellow man is now 1/2 favourite (5/2 blue 5/1 red). Now that people know who the yellow man is, surely that puts him under the cosh for the next show?
Do you think a blue or red bet is value? Thanks.
A few factors to consider here (as ever).
All things been equal I would still expect Clegg to 'win' the next debate due to some of the same factors that 'won' him the first debate, but by a much smaller margin as he now has expectations on him.
But the theme of the next debate is 'international issues' - something which should favour the incumbant (ie Brown). This theme should hurt Cameron as he has no actual experience on such matters and will be seen as a bit of a novice/lightweight on such issues. This is obviously an issue for Clegg too but he will be hurt less because the Lib Dems opposed the war in Iraq.
In terms of who I think will do best in the next debate I'm quite sure it will be Brown. But in terms of who will 'win' (as decided by polls) it will probably be Clegg again. I happen to think that in terms of who did best last night it was Clegg, Brown then Cameron. But the polls don't reflect that. That is Brown's main problem - the residual dislike of him plus the fact that the incumbant is the only one that has something to defend. He will have to absolutely kick arse to be given the win. But, I think that he represents a better shot than Cameron on this next debate. Basically because Cameron is caught between two stools. He can't attack Brown's foreign policies because he supported most of them but he also doesn't get the 'better the devil you know' effect that plays quite strongly in international issues.
So, in summary, Clegg is the safe bet but Brown is the value. Just don't back Cameron. (although Cameron probably has a better chance of coming second than Brown does, but has less chance of winning. Fenster will know what I mean).
On the face of it my advice looks bad. BUT...3 of the 4 major polls show Clegg as the winner. Actually one has it basically 30%,30%,30%. But Cameron won the yougov poll. Last time the bookies paid out based on the ICM poll (which Clegg won both times) but for some reason they switched to the yougov poll. Sorry Fenster.
Nice spin.
Re: UK Prime Ministerial candidate debate
I don't think the Lib Dems will do as well as their support shows and even if they do get 30% of the vote they'll only get 100 seats. What it does look like though is that they're going to do well enough to prevent a Tory majority and give us what could turn out to be a permanent centre-lleft majority in the country if (when) they change the voting system before the next election. We're going to be stuck with a permanent Lib-Lab coalition with the Tories tacking endlessly to the left to try and get a majority. This is not good. I may finally get pissed off with Britain and go and live somewhere a bit warmer.
Re: UK Prime Ministerial candidate debate
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Kirkland Laing
I don't think the Lib Dems will do as well as their support shows and even if they do get 30% of the vote they'll only get 100 seats. What it does look like though is that they're going to do well enough to prevent a Tory majority and give us what could turn out to be a permanent centre-lleft majority in the country if (when) they change the voting system before the next election. We're going to be stuck with a permanent Lib-Lab coalition with the Tories tacking endlessly to the left to try and get a majority. This is not good. I may finally get pissed off with Britain and go and live somewhere a bit warmer.
Most intelligent Brits have done that already, you might as well do the same. The place is a wasteland by all accounts. The place has been raped bare, just like America.
I care about England a lot and that is why I post about home so much, but I have no hope for the miserable place.
