Re: How many of you bet on Boxing and which sites do you use?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Fenster
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Jimanuel Boogustus
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Fenster
There is "value" in betting odds on. If you think a fighter is a 1/4 shot and 1/2 is offered you clearly have a "value" bet.
So @
Fenster, are you saying that from experience you (personally) begin to articulate an expectation of what the odds might/ should look like?
Exactly.
Before I see what the bookmakers prices are I've already made my own price. So in real simple terms - If I make a fighter a 2/1 chance, once the bookies reveal their prices, if it's bigger than mine i'll bet, if it's shorter I wont.
If you are betting longterm, It doesn't matter WHO wins, it just matters whether or not you have the "correct" price (which can differ from one "expert" to another :))
Impressive mate :cool:
I'm gonna have to start paying more attention to boxing odds!
Re: How many of you bet on Boxing and which sites do you use?
Fenster hit the nail on the head. Its all about the price. Experts disagree sometimes and will not be right all the time. This is what give you an opportunity to win in the long run. Problem is if your prices are good the boiokies just dont take your bets
Re: How many of you bet on Boxing and which sites do you use?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Rantcatrat
Quote:
Originally Posted by
0james0
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Silkeyjoe
Quote:
Originally Posted by
0james0
The problem you have with that betting strategy is the other outcomes that could occur. There are many. Although less likely, any gambler knows they can and will come up.
You've covered about 6 of 30 different eventualities. With the most likely return just over double your stake. I doubt you would have an every other or better hit rate to make it profitable long term. I've tried to arb the round betting loads of times and it just doesnt work either, winning on points normally screws the numbers.
I agree with you there is no value in the odds on favourite bets, although sometimes there is good value laying the bet on betfair because the odds are too short.
Well then you are not arbing because if you arb you guarantee yourself no loss. There is loads of value in match betting. You just have to know your odds. For example my latest good value loser. I backed Malik Scott at 4/1 and 5/2 to beat Dereck Chisora. It lost but the price did not reflect his chances of winning the fight. I could have guaranteed a profit by backing Chisora at 6/5 the day of the fight
That is why I wasn't arbing, as the numbers didn't add up!
A good strategy if you are into trading is to lay the favourite in a fight you know is much tougher than is being predicted, then as the war starts going, the odds get bigger and you can back the selection to win to lock in a profit.
If I was doing that bet of yours, I would have left off the Fury KO'S (as fun as they are to be on there) and have done a lay bet on Haye at Betfair. If you risk £4 on that, you would get your £20 back if anything happens but a Haye win. You could then do 8 £2 round bets, so a bigger spread, more chance of winning, and potentially some small winnings of say £4 - £15. But because I'm cautious, I'd probably put £5 on Haye points, then only do 5 small stoppage bets.
Smaller margins, but less chance of losing which is the whole point. Small and steady profits are the way forward, the alternative is that you win big on occasions, lose often and end up long term losing your betting pot. That way is more fun, but I think over the years, the bookies will always win on the bets that seem value.
@
Silkeyjoe - will you please help me understand your "arb" point with more explanation?
Isn't the case that you lose if Fury beats Haye by anything other than a ninth or tenth round KO and if Haye knocks Fury out late or loses on points?
I was just saying that he wasnt arbing because it left plenty of potential for loss whereas arbing is risk free betting. Backing round betting will rarely give arbing opportunities
Re: How many of you bet on Boxing and which sites do you use?
@0james0
@Fenster
@Vendettos
Would you ever consider putting money on rounds/ outcomes just to cover/ reduce possible losses?
How safe would you consider playing it?
Re: How many of you bet on Boxing and which sites do you use?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Jimanuel Boogustus
@
0james0
@
Fenster
@
Vendettos
Would you ever consider putting money on rounds/ outcomes just to cover/ reduce possible losses?
How safe would you consider playing it?
Generally pretty safe.
If you look at my example from the first page, you'll notice that every single winning is about twice as much as my initial stake.
So as long as I win one of them, I've at least doubled up.
Re: How many of you bet on Boxing and which sites do you use?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Jimanuel Boogustus
@
0james0
@
Fenster
@
Vendettos
Would you ever consider putting money on rounds/ outcomes just to cover/ reduce possible losses?
How safe would you consider playing it?
Dont take advice from people who dont understand its all about price. You need to understand probability and be able to change from % chance of happening to odds.
Re: How many of you bet on Boxing and which sites do you use?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
0james0
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Silkeyjoe
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Jimanuel Boogustus
@
0james0
@
Fenster
@
Vendettos
Would you ever consider putting money on rounds/ outcomes just to cover/ reduce possible losses?
How safe would you consider playing it?
Dont take advice from people who dont understand its all about price. You need to understand probability and be able to change from % chance of happening to odds.
Says the guy who has dumped all his wedge on the "dead cert" of Haye 2,3,4 or Fury 8,9. That is nothing more than a good old fashioned gamble.
That was me and if you read properly I said it was just an example and that I'd make my actual bet closer to the fight.
And I never said dead cert, nothing is dead cert when you gamble.
Now stay calm and stop making shit up.
