Originally Posted by Ted The Bull
By Ted Sares
In a piece I did on July 25, 2006 entitled, "James Toney: Why He'll Defeat Samuel Peter," I ended it with the following paragraph:
"I am feeling cocky (and maybe even foolhardy), but off my recent posted predictions of a draw between Taylor and Wright and a Baldomir win over Gatti by 9th round TKO, I'll go out on the limb and predict that Toney exposes Peter's lack of fundamentals and takes the crude but proud Nigerian to school. I see an semi-exhausted Toney winning by UD or MD."
Well, I was wrong but not by all that much. This is what is what I think James Toney has to do to prevail in the rematch.
Arguably, James Toney may have done enough to win the first fight. If so, one could reason he simply needs to put more intensity on the same fight plan to ensure a win in the rematch. But I believe he needs to adjust his approach more substantially based on Samuel Peter's surprising performance. Surprising in the sense his decision win was the least likely outcome expected.
That said, these are the adjustments I believe "Lights Out" must make if he is to prevail over the Nigerian bomber.
Toney, who needs to come in lower than 233 lbs, must not make the mistake of throwing hooks in the middle of the ring now that he knows Peter is a decent counter puncher off those hooks. In fact, Peter fought very well in the middle. Peter surprised with his grasp of fundamentals, but the element of surprise is no longer there. On the other hand, Toney surprised by his ability to take Peter's punches and that could be an advantage for Toney going in....though both have rock solid chins.
This time, James needs to work his way inside "The Nightmare's" not-so-looping shots, and begin connecting with short hooks and sharp counter uppercuts until Samuel starts showing some respect. The operative word here is "inside," as that is something he does better than just about anyone out there. Peter already knows that Toney can throw strong overhand rights down the middle, so by working inside, Toney can maintain a two dimensional attack that could force Peter to become more cautious and tentative thus giving Toney an opportunity to take control.
Toney, if he comes into the fight in better shape, say at around 225, should pick up the pace in the 4th or 5th round. And since he is now aware Peter can go 12 full rounds at 263 lbs, he will need to pace himself carefully. He also will need to avoid the quasi-rabbit punches for which Peter inexplicitly is never penalized but which can spell the beginning of the end for a Peter opponent and which stunned James on more than one occasion.
Going down the stretch, Toney needs to be the one who initiates the action and, in particular, the combinations. He needs to orchestrate the situation so that the "Nightmare" is throwing one telegraphed punch at a time.....something Samuel did against Wladimir Klitschko but surprisingly did not do against James. As well, 'Lights Out" needs to dictate the action and expose Peter's suspected lack of fundamentals. But the problem is Peter's lack of basics was not nearly as bad as his critics thought, including me.
In the rematch, James Toney needs to do what he does best. Use a great defense, fight closer in, assume a rhythm, put together crisp combinations and uppercuts, and fight from angles using shoulder rolls to deflect punches. In other words, pure old school boxing stuff. His task is a daunting one. And one thing is certain, while Peter may not walk through him as some predicted he would in the first fight, he (Peter) will be more confident going in. After all, he did win the first one, didn't he? Well didn't he?
No predictions this time. ??? ???
