UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones saturday, thoughts and predictions?

I think Shogun vs Jones is an incredible match up. Jones is on top of his game and has looked unstoppable against lesser competition, while Shogun has looked terrible coming off of injuries in the past. If Shogun were healthy, I'd give it to him without much hesitation, but "Healthy Shogun" shows up as often as "Motivated Penn". This is the best time for Jones to fight him.

Jones has a clear wrestling advantage, Shogun has superior BJJ and striking (by a WIDE margin), but Jones' reach will make it difficult to get in close. We've seen a strong wrestler stifle a Jiu-Jician's guard many times, but Jones likes to leave his arms out there (see Vera fight). This ought to be a close fight, but I'm going with Shogun by (T)KO in the 3rd or 4th.

Jones hasn't fought a single good striker, Shogun's the best in the division. I see Shogun staying outside, throwing low leg kicks and overhand rights. I think he'll hurt Jones's lead leg early and often, then threaten with leg locks and armbars enough to make Jones worried about going to the ground. Then, when he's mentally broken, go classic berserker mode.

Rest of the main card:
Faber via sub, round 2
Marquardt via clear UD or late stoppage
Miller via sub, round 3
Schaub via brutal KO, round 1

What do you guys think?

Jones has all of the physical and technical traits to give Shogun some real problems. But w/o seeing Jones against some real top tier LHWs or how he responds to being in trouble I think Shogun's experience will lead him to a UD or late stoppage. That being said I won't be shocked if Jones pulls out some crazy somersault back kick for a spectacular finish either.

I agree with the rest of your picks. If Nate can't keep the fight off the ground then he loses, and I think Schaub wins but don't think it will be a 1st rd ko.

Holy fuck, got that one wrong

That was just a nasty one sided beating

I think that head kick and left in the middle of round 1 killed Shogun. He was flat footed, noticeably slower and appeared out of it from that point on. Then one of Jones's elbows made him curl up and roll over at the end, I wonder if he broke his eye socket.

Shogun falling over and tapping to strikes was really, really hard to watch. I hope he comes back stronger.

Gunna sound like a hindsight thing now, but I felt that would happen. After he beat Bader I spoke to a friend of mine and said that Jones would destroy Shogun.

I'll go on record now and say I see something similar happening to Rashad.

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Originally Posted by bzkfn

Gunna sound like a hindsight thing now, but I felt that would happen. After he beat Bader I spoke to a friend of mine and said that Jones would destroy Shogun.

I'll go on record now and say I see something similar happening to Rashad.

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Going to catch up with the card..I've only seen Jones before control Bader. He had the smell of quality about him then. Good variety, cool and confident.

I don't know how Rashad could have watched that fight and think " I could take him"

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Originally Posted by VictorCharlie

I don't know how Rashad could have watched that fight and think " I could take him"

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I agree, he will have to make it one ugly fight just to get out the first round.


Already I think the only guy who could challenge Jones is Anderson Silva. That would be one hell of a matchup, the UFC's Mayweather Pacquaio imo.

He;s demolish Rashaad and anyone else in that weight class.

I hope Anderson moves back up because that is going to be a fight for the ages.

Anderson's very similar to Shogun: similar size, great striking, great BJJ, weak wrestling. Anderson has the advantage of fighting in a much weaker division, Shogun would be the undefeated GOAT if he fought at MW, too.

It's going to take a great wrestler (Rashad, Couture), rediculous power (Rampage) or great striking with great takedown defense (Machida) to beat Jones.

I would think Rashad and the winner of Couture vs Machida have the best chance of beating Jones. If he beats them, Jones will hold the belt for a while. If not, 205's going to be a revolving door forever.

Jones was immensely impressive in dismantling Shogun.
Not to interfere with that statement but Shogun looked dreadful.

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Originally Posted by Captain America

Holy fuck, got that one wrong

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;D

Didnt ya just !!


This kid is the second coming believe me. I honestly cannot see anyone in the 205 division de-throning him any time soon. Everytime I watch him he gets better and better :o

I originally thought Bader would of put up a better display than he did, and after watching Jones dominate such a solid wrestler in Bader then Shogun stood no chance in the ground game regardless of his great BJJ. The thing with Jones, his reach is ridiculous, Shogun has superb striking, but if cannot get close to ya opponent it means shit ! As highlighted in the fight. As mentioned by some, Silva would be the fight everyone will clamour for once Jones hands Rashad's ass to him on a plate.

I honestly would fear for Silva if they met. Sonnen proved Silva can be dominated by a top class wrestler, Jones would not let it get to the 5th round imo, and that hurts me to say cos Silva is one special fighter, but on the other hand so is Jones.

You know a fighter is special when watching them, it looks like they have all the time in the world, never get flustered or rush into anything daft. He seems to be in the matrix when he's fighting. Silva comes into this category, Jose Aldo, GSP, but not many others, these are the top of the tree no doubt.

I was really surprised Shogun didn't throw leg kicks at all. No one at Jackson's kicks as hard or as fast as Shogun. Hurt one leg, Jones loses at least some of his power, speed, clinch ability and all flashiness.

At the moment I can't think of anybody that could beat Jones at 205 but I also thought the same about Lyoto. Now that the UFC has taken control of Strikeforce. I would love to see the heavyweights get it on and I think eventually Jones will get too big for 205 and join the deep heavyweight division. I would love to see him try to fight Overeem ;D

I went back and watched some of Jones's fights again. The only thing that I am seeing is that John is somewhat hittable. Bader, Obrien, Rua, Hamil and Bonnar all were able to land a good shot or two. Of course he has shown a durable chin and at 23 I'd expect his head/foot movement to only get better. MMA has a very small margin of error so if the guy loses it may just be someone landing that one big shot. Anderson currently has a better and more technical standup but that may not be true in 12-24 months. If the Spider wants to fight Jones he better do it quick or he could get demolished like Rua.

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Originally Posted by VictorCharlie

I went back and watched some of Jones's fights again. The only thing that I am seeing is that John is somewhat hittable. Bader, Obrien, Rua, Hamil and Bonnar all were able to land a good shot or two. Of course he has shown a durable chin and at 23 I'd expect his head/foot movement to only get better. MMA has a very small margin of error so if the guy loses it may just be someone landing that one big shot. Anderson currently has a better and more technical standup but that may not be true in 12-24 months. If the Spider wants to fight Jones he better do it quick or he could get demolished like Rua.

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To be fair mate, that can be said about every fighter, even Anderson, GSP, Frankie Edgar, Aldo, everyone gets hit, and gets hit hard, bloody hell im still amazed Anderson got through that match with Sonnen, he got battered for 5 rds non-stop, yet still managed to get through it ;)

For the record I'd still pick Silva to beat him. The guy just doesn't know how to lose in the Octagon.

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Originally Posted by Bilbo

For the record I'd still pick Silva to beat him. The guy just doesn't know how to lose in the Octagon.

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Thats a lesson Jon Jones would teach him.....and it would be a painful one for him ;) Sonnen wrestled the fuck out of him, Jones is freakishly strong and would have his way with Silva as soon as it hit the ground and take some vicious helbows (elbows from hell) until he wakes up in hospital ;)

I'm really not a MMA guy but one of our lesser channels '5*' just showed this fight (literally just finished!) and I'm in complete awe of the guy... That spinning back hand off the cage..! Dropping the guy with a silky lookin left hook to the body... only for the guy to tap out crumpled on the floor..?! Jones has immense talent i'm gonna keep both eyes on his career from now on.

I'd actually love to see this guy box!

Jones would beat Silva. Simple he is bigger and stronger and would controle Silva were ever it goes. Be interesting but i think it would be easy enough for bones Jones. How Jones has been fighting the only way i see him losing is to a bigger stronger fighter than him that can wrestle.