I always use Bovada and TopBet but IM wondering if any of you know something better??
And do you think u can make a living through betting ?
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I always use Bovada and TopBet but IM wondering if any of you know something better??
And do you think u can make a living through betting ?
Skybet and no because it's a dangerous game.
Skybet is only in UK Im guessing?Quote:
Originally Posted by Tam Seddon
I dont gamble with cards and any other stuff but I think Boxing bets are fairly safe if you are really knowledgable.
5dimes is best to me and I don't agree with your last comment. I'm a decent forecaster and consider myself knowledgeable. I have more then broke even on the boxing bets I've made (I try to play the euro fights) but you have to figure that odds makers really do make a living gambling. They are smart, very very smart. I doubt anyone here makes a living gambling on fights.
That's true. But I think people just dont want to risk gambling full time but if they did, assuming they really understand the game inside and out, they'd make very good money..Quote:
Originally Posted by amat
I only bet when the odds are ridiculous for the underdog and when Im positive that the underdog will win.. Like Gonzalez-Mares, Fury- Chisora and Viloria-Segura for instance.. Those fights made me a killing!
But yea. Im not even gonna attempt to go fulltime
It would be more important to be very good at maths than actually being a boxing "expert"
As amat said - you are basically taking on the opinion of odds compilers and need to exploit their mistakes. If you are just betting on whoever you think will win - regardless of price - you'll go skint in 5 minutes.
I bet on boxing and I have done for many years.
You are right it is safe, and low risk, IF you know your boxing. There is no money in just picking the winner. Period!
The only way to make a decent return by picking just the winner is to bet a lot on it, but that then creates risk because upsets happen.
Picking the winning method is the better option, SD, UD, etc, or predicting the draw or round of KO.
I tend to try and pick the round for the KO and I do it like this:
I've attached the Haye v Fury odds from WilliamHill betting website.
http://s15.postimg.org/d0dvbju7v/image.jpg
Haye is a big hitter and I believe if he can get Fury early he'll drop him and end it so...
£4 - 12/1 Haye round 2 - return = £52
£5 - 10/1 Haye round 3 - return = £55
£5 - 10/1 Haye round 4 - return = £55
If Fury stops Haye it will be late on in the fight.
£3 - 40/1 Fury round 9 - return = £123
£3 - 50/1 Fury round 10 - return = £153
£3 - 50/1 Fury round 11 - return = £153
So I would bet £23 and my absolute lowest return would be £52. Obviously from a financial standpoint I want Fury to win in round 10 or 11.
This is just a hypothetical bet, I'll make my bet closer to the fight but you need to work the odds, there's a chance you'd lose £23 quid, but many times I've stuck more on just one round, my best was £15 on a 33/1 round and got over £500 returns but I'd suggest the way I showed you above, I usually get a decent return every 3rd fight, which ain't bad.
I'm not too sure you would have to try it ;)! They are safe but when you dedicate your life to gambling that's when it gets dangerous. Had a friend who's younger than me he's only 20, he won £220,000 on online roulette and the idiot lost it all doing stupid bets. I have no idea why he didn't put any to one side. He's learnt his lesson the hard way and he's obviously not in a good place after losing all of that. He did well to get that high up though in the first place but it would be a nightmare losing all of that.Quote:
Originally Posted by FinitoElDinamitaSkybet is only in UK Im guessing?Quote:
Originally Posted by Tam Seddon
I dont gamble with cards and any other stuff but I think Boxing bets are fairly safe if you are really knowledgable.
What was the fight you had £15 @33/1?
@Vendettos
Avendano vs LujanQuote:
Originally Posted by Fenster
Blimey, that's an obscure fight. Well done though.
I backed Prescott to KO Khan in round 1 @100/1 - only for peanuts.
Obscure? Lujan had not long been in a tough fight with Antonio Margarito for a world title mate, early the same year. Plus Lujan is one of my fav fighters I try and follow all his fights I actually had him as my avatar on here for like a year lol.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fenster
How much did you have on the Khan Prescott fight? That's such a good pick mate, I don't fully remember but I'm sure I had Khan down to win a UD.
Venny and Fenny, sitting in a tree, B.E.T.T.I.N.G ;D
Iv'e been thinking about making a go of some regular betting. I'm not terrible at it and would only take it more seriously if it was for money (I hope) the only problem was I've always been aware that my estranged father was an absolutely useless and compulsive gambler ;D
I remember betting on winky trinidad - just 20 quid mind being sure winky would win - and was so pissed off at myself for not betting about 500!!
Lol.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jimanuel Boogustus
I have a few, acquaintances lets say, not so much mates but I know them well, and they bet crazy every week on sports, from F1 to football to boxing and back again.
One of them makes a killing on football, he wins something 3 of every 4 weeks.
Knowing when you're shit and stopping is the skill. I don't do well at football so I just simply don't bet football now.
Peanuts means a small amount. However, one mans peanuts is another mans fortune. For what it's worth - what I won from the 100/1 shot I've staked double that on other bets... numerous times.
I'm still skint.
In my opinion, when Finito and Vendetto suggest that you have to know your boxing to win at boxing betting, they are correct. What they mean is that you have to know when the bookies are valuing an outcome incorrectly. In other words, you play a bet where the odds don't accurately reflect what you believe they should. So, sometimes that means that while you think it is likely that the favorite wins the fight (Mares), the fact that the odds on the underdog are out of whack (Gonzales), means that you bet on him anyway because there is more of a chance he win than the bookies believe. Conversely, if you think the odds on the favorite are too close (original 2/1 odds on Floyd with Canelo), you bet on the favorite because you think it is more likely than that that he wins.
I also think that because boxing is a niche sport, more opportunities present themselves for a boxing expert to more accurately value a fight than the bookies. Agree?
You could make a living from betting on boxing if you cpuld get whatever bet you wanted on. Bookies restrict smart customers and as such it is a lot harder to make a living from it. What I will say is boxing is one of the better sports to bet on as price confidence isnt as high as lets say american football or premier league soccer so you do have a chance of beating the odds. I am a reasonably successful boxer and the 1st tip I would give anyone is to shop around for price. Open as many accounts as possible and take the top price on the selection you want. In the long run the difference between a 2.1 shot and 2.2 shot will tell in your margins.
www.oddschecker.com is a good place to start
Name me a boxing "expert?"Quote:
Originally Posted by Rantcatrat
Teddy Atlas ;DQuote:
Originally Posted by FensterName me a boxing "expert?"Quote:
Originally Posted by Rantcatrat
There you go, Teddy Atlas has lived a life of boxing, still in the business, but put money on his opinion and you're living in a cardboard box within a month.Quote:
Originally Posted by SilkeyjoeTeddy Atlas ;DQuote:
Originally Posted by FensterName me a boxing "expert?"Quote:
Originally Posted by Rantcatrat
You need to understand odds as well as have expert knowledge on the sport. At the end of the day its a; about the price you get. As I said my first tip would be open accounts with everyone and shop around for best price. Your accounts wont last too long doing thisQuote:
Originally Posted by FensterThere you go, Teddy Atlas has lived a life of boxing, still in the business, but put money on his opinion and you're living in a cardboard box within a month.Quote:
Originally Posted by SilkeyjoeTeddy Atlas ;DQuote:
Originally Posted by FensterName me a boxing "expert?"Quote:
Originally Posted by Rantcatrat
Boxing presents so many betting opportunities, I personally have not paid a bookie any money since boxing day 2011. I bet on horses, sometimes football but mostly boxing.
Boxing is easy, if some fool promoter puts Audley Harison up against Wilder can't you work it out? Similarly the last Cleverly mismatch (the other way round this time) was absolutely too good to miss.
If you are confident your man is going to win then back 80 percent of your stash on the straight win. Punt the remaining 20 percent on round betting.
Simple strokes, there is so much bullshit and hype around boxing, and so few useless journos in the main papers that the odds are sometimes quite ridiculous.
You have to work out which are genuine 50 50 fights, there are surprisingly few, groves froch is the only one this year. .
Hahaha. Whatever you do do not listen to this clown or u will lose all your money very very quickly.Quote:
Originally Posted by nuggetdotcom
Quote:
Originally Posted by nuggetdotcom
Completely retarded!
Why would you bet on outright wins? Are you serious? That's where all the risk is.
Haye is 1/4 fav against fury so if you bet say £20 on the outright win you end up with £25 which is shocking return if you bet £20.
Risk losing £20 to win £25? Absolutely ridiculous.
The skill is in predicting how the fight will end or when the fight will end.
Predicting Haye to win in rounds 2, 3, 4, at 12/1, 10/1 and 10/1 respectively, now split your £20 between the 3 bets and stick a couple of safe ones on Fury.
£4 - 12/1 Haye round 2 - return = £52
£5 - 10/1 Haye round 3 - return = £55
£5 - 10/1 Haye round 4 - return = £55
£3 - 40/1 Fury round 9 - return = £123
£3 - 50/1 Fury round 10 - return = £153
Profit in all. And now you're risking £20 to win anything from £52 - £153.
If you're gonna bet an outright winner it needs to be the underdog, but again that comes with even more risk.
I've never had the cash to bet on a fight and I'm not sure I would if I did. I'd be tempted to throw a few quid on Vic though given all the circumstances.;D
Vendettos you are wrong too. There is a lot more margin in the round betting then in match betting so in the long run playing your type of bets will lose a lot more then playing neggetts type of bets. However, in the long run you will both lose money unless you are getting the price right.Quote:
Originally Posted by VendettosQuote:
Originally Posted by nuggetdotcom
Completely retarded!
Why would you bet on outright wins? Are you serious? That's where all the risk is.
Haye is 1/4 fav against fury so if you bet say £20 on the outright win you end up with £25 which is shocking return if you bet £20.
Risk losing £20 to win £25? Absolutely ridiculous.
The skill is in predicting how the fight will end or when the fight will end.
Predicting Haye to win in rounds 2, 3, 4, at 12/1, 10/1 and 10/1 respectively, now split your £20 between the 3 bets and stick a couple of safe ones on Fury.
£4 - 12/1 Haye round 2 - return = £52
£5 - 10/1 Haye round 3 - return = £55
£5 - 10/1 Haye round 4 - return = £55
£3 - 40/1 Fury round 9 - return = £123
£3 - 50/1 Fury round 10 - return = £153
Profit in all. And now you're risking £20 to win anything from £52 - £153.
If you're gonna bet an outright winner it needs to be the underdog, but again that comes with even more risk.
In Las Vegas, the LVH (formerly the Hilton) is where ive seen the most fights listed. Just in case any of you are ever here in person
@Fenster - You. ;DQuote:
Originally Posted by FensterName me a boxing "expert?"Quote:
Originally Posted by Rantcatrat
I am not a successful gambler. I always bet with my heart. I can't bring myself to bet against a team or boxer I like. With spreads I hate when your team wins but you still lose.
I'm not wrong and I snigger at you for saying so.Quote:
Originally Posted by SilkeyjoeVendettos you are wrong too. There is a lot more margin in the round betting then in match betting so in the long run playing your type of bets will lose a lot more then playing neggetts type of bets. However, in the long run you will both lose money unless you are getting the price right.Quote:
Originally Posted by VendettosQuote:
Originally Posted by nuggetdotcom
Completely retarded!
Why would you bet on outright wins? Are you serious? That's where all the risk is.
Haye is 1/4 fav against fury so if you bet say £20 on the outright win you end up with £25 which is shocking return if you bet £20.
Risk losing £20 to win £25? Absolutely ridiculous.
The skill is in predicting how the fight will end or when the fight will end.
Predicting Haye to win in rounds 2, 3, 4, at 12/1, 10/1 and 10/1 respectively, now split your £20 between the 3 bets and stick a couple of safe ones on Fury.
£4 - 12/1 Haye round 2 - return = £52
£5 - 10/1 Haye round 3 - return = £55
£5 - 10/1 Haye round 4 - return = £55
£3 - 40/1 Fury round 9 - return = £123
£3 - 50/1 Fury round 10 - return = £153
Profit in all. And now you're risking £20 to win anything from £52 - £153.
If you're gonna bet an outright winner it needs to be the underdog, but again that comes with even more risk.
Firstly, I am good at predicting the round, which is half the battle.
Secondly, YES you will lose money if you don't have a clue about boxing, but again I must point out that I AM GOOD at predicting the round.
If you predict it and don't get it right once in 100 fights...... quit.
Not only do I predict it but if I don't get it right for 2 fights, and I get it right on fight 3 I always cover my losses.
Cheeky sod. ;DQuote:
Originally Posted by Rantcatrat@Fenster - You. ;DQuote:
Originally Posted by FensterName me a boxing "expert?"Quote:
Originally Posted by Rantcatrat
You should have entered the prediction contest if you're good at picking rounds.
Were is this boxing expert, I can't wait till he gets here.;D
There's loads of boxing experts on here.... aftertimers and hindsight merchants but stillQuote:
Originally Posted by Dia bando
The problem you have with that betting strategy is the other outcomes that could occur. There are many. Although less likely, any gambler knows they can and will come up.
You've covered about 6 of 30 different eventualities. With the most likely return just over double your stake. I doubt you would have an every other or better hit rate to make it profitable long term. I've tried to arb the round betting loads of times and it just doesnt work either, winning on points normally screws the numbers.
I agree with you there is no value in the odds on favourite bets, although sometimes there is good value laying the bet on betfair because the odds are too short.
Well then you are not arbing because if you arb you guarantee yourself no loss. There is loads of value in match betting. You just have to know your odds. For example my latest good value loser. I backed Malik Scott at 4/1 and 5/2 to beat Dereck Chisora. It lost but the price did not reflect his chances of winning the fight. I could have guaranteed a profit by backing Chisora at 6/5 the day of the fightQuote:
Originally Posted by 0james0
Quote:
Originally Posted by SilkeyjoeWell then you are not arbing because if you arb you guarantee yourself no loss. There is loads of value in match betting. You just have to know your odds. For example my latest good value loser. I backed Malik Scott at 4/1 and 5/2 to beat Dereck Chisora. It lost but the price did not reflect his chances of winning the fight. I could have guaranteed a profit by backing Chisora at 6/5 the day of the fightQuote:
Originally Posted by 0james0
That is why I wasn't arbing, as the numbers didn't add up!
A good strategy if you are into trading is to lay the favourite in a fight you know is much tougher than is being predicted, then as the war starts going, the odds get bigger and you can back the selection to win to lock in a profit.
If I was doing that bet of yours, I would have left off the Fury KO'S (as fun as they are to be on there) and have done a lay bet on Haye at Betfair. If you risk £4 on that, you would get your £20 back if anything happens but a Haye win. You could then do 8 £2 round bets, so a bigger spread, more chance of winning, and potentially some small winnings of say £4 - £15. But because I'm cautious, I'd probably put £5 on Haye points, then only do 5 small stoppage bets.
Smaller margins, but less chance of losing which is the whole point. Small and steady profits are the way forward, the alternative is that you win big on occasions, lose often and end up long term losing your betting pot. That way is more fun, but I think over the years, the bookies will always win on the bets that seem value.
You will winni the long run if you are actually getting value. Before you start betting you should start pricing the fights yourself to what you think is fair. They should add up to 100%. If you can get a price bigger then ur 100% u should add it to a sheet and keep track of how you do over say 200 bets. If you are up start betting. If your down work on your pricing. The majority of people will lose about 8% of their total stake. If you are playing round betting u will likely lose more.