Did we overestimated Williams or Underestimated Quintana. Question on odds making.

[The Rookie Fan]

The obvious answer would be both but, I really want to see what you guys have to say about this cause I'm looking te get a little deeper into the question.

I know there is a long way to go, but I think it is safe to say that this fight will be a frunt runner contender to upset of the year in 2008. With only a very few noted exceptions of SaltheBUtcher and Violent Demise, pretty much everyone here expected Williams to cruise into victory. The question was not whethor or not Williams would win, it was could Quintana go 12 rounds. Most believed the answer was no.

Well my question is simple. What happend? Why was Williams an 8 to 1 favorite?

There have been other instances like this were the favorite came in overconfident and maybe not in the best shape and ended up loosing. But I don't think this was the case. Williams might've been looking ahead of Quintana but he certanly didn't look like he was not in top shape and ready to defend his title.

I'm not going to sit here and lie to you. I was one of those that felt Quintana had no chance, though at least I said he would go 12. But they say hind sight is 20/20 and the more I think about it, the more I wonder. Why? Why was Williams such a favorite?

If we take out Margarito and Cotto from Williams' and Quintana'a record, respectively, we have two fighters who are pretty much in the same level. Both had fought a steady stream of no names to build up their record and, when they were ready, they stepped up against a top contender and performed very well. At that time Quintana's win over Joel Julio was highly publisized and he imedietally got a title shot. Williams had to wait a little longer after defeating Matthysse but not long before he got his turn.

What they did afterwards is what sepperated them. Williams got a solid win over one of the top champions at the time in Margarito while Quintana on the other hand got destroyed at the hands of Cotto.

So much was made of that one sided beat down Quintana got that it seemed to some that he would fade away another solid contender who is sadly not at the level to become a champion.

But why did we put so much stock on this. I realize now that in a fight decided by one fighter overpowering another should not be a deciding factor in odds making.

Power is not a constant factor, it is merely a random anomaly. You could argue that it is a constant. Eather a fighter has it or he does not. That is true, what is a random factor is its effect in the fight. And it gets more and more random the more people know about it. Just ask Trinidad.

What power does do is reveal another factor which is a constant. And that is chin. You eather have it or you don't and it is alwais a factor. Especially the more people know about it.

So we questioned Quintana's chin maybe. But if we remember the fight against Cotto, it was not Quintana's chin that gave way. It was his body after getting pummled by shots to the rib cage and some borderline kidney shots from Cotto.

Well that is the excuse I have at least and this is what I have learned.

Sorry for the long post but I hope you get through it and share your thoughts on this with me. How do these odds work and what did few of you see that the rest of us did not?

[Bx730NY]

Although I didnt post any predictions, I spent the better part of my week trying to explain to my friends why I though Quintana would win.

It had nothing to do with Paul but everything to with how good Quintana is. I think he beats any welter not named Cotto or floyd with relative ease. He is a supreme boxer and will continue to win when people say he's supposed to lose.

Paul is still the same guy and he'll continue to win.

Quintana is just that good.

[Puya]

so what that says of Joel Julio right now? does he deserves a chance to fight any of the good fighters at WW

[USA LOVES THE KLITSCHKOS]

I for one am guilty of overestimating Williams, I thought he would cruise to a UD victory.

[ArawakWarria]

Quintana deserves all the credit. He was definitely underestimated. I think he crumbled against Cotto.

Let's not forget...
Williams had a 7 month layoff, and before that Goosen had him fighting every 8 weeks. I look forward to the rematch. DiBella says it is Paul's if he asks for it.

[the wiz]

Qunitana wasn't thought of much after the Cotto loss. But I think Williams was a bit overestimated. Margarito would of won if he started throwing pnuches earlier. Besides that, who did Williams really fight before this. It is a marvel how someone that tall can make 147, but as far a a great boxer I don't see it.

[SalTheButcher]

it was both, williams was overrated and quintana was overlooked


i dont understand why wiliams was such a huge favorite, i guess it was mostly the hype that he got from the margarito fight,



fuck man, im pilled up, i copped the flu and took a vicodin, fuck the flu

[p4pking]

It's just a classic case of styles making fights. Quintana didn't become a different fighter since the Cotto fight, Williams didn't become a different fighter, or have any more trouble making weight, than he was/did against Margarito. Imo Quintana just can't take it to the body very well, and Cotto is a wicked body attacker in general. He get's sick leverage and power behind great kidney and liver shots.. Paul Williams can't punch half as hard. On top of that, Williams has huge lapses in defence and throws winging pitter pat shots, generating very little power in general, and especially little to the body. Quintana really didn't show anything more against Williams than he did against Cotto, Miguel just kept him a whole lot more wary and hurt him a lot more, as well as having the tighter defence. Quintana still was a hell of a slick boxer capable of landing his own shots and controlling a fight when he fought Cotto. Williams just isn't going to be able to do that well with good boxers if you ask me. Quintana was really the only guy he's faced who could move, counter and had any slickness.

[Pugilistic]

i overated williams and underated quintana, i knew he was talented but didn't think he could deal with the high workrate and length of williams, he proved me wrong

[The Rookie Fan]

Hey guys, thanks for your posts.

For my part I don't think I overrated Williams and I still think he can beat most of the welterweights. But I certanly underrated Quintana.

I knew he was a good boxer and I saw his performance against Joel Julio and was impressed. But I didn't put that much stock in it cause Joel Julio is still not that great of a fighter. Also what I saw in the Cotto fight made me question Quintana's will to win. Not to mention a beat down like that can really ruin a fighter.

I knew Quintana would make it a tougher fight than most predicted but I figured Williams would take it on work rate alone and towards the end Quintana would get discurraged. Actually I still felt that was going to happend around the 5th and 6th round when Quintana looked to be gassing out.

All propps to the man for regaining control and finishing strong.

[Bomp]

I think Williams underrated quintana, and overestimated himself after his Margarito win. He viewed Quintana as the only guy WILLING to fight him, rather than the toughest opponent he could face.

[SalTheButcher]

i dont understand how quintana was like +675, but maybe he was obscure to most people, and maybe he made julio look so bad that people thought julio was nothing

[p4pking]

Hey guys, thanks for your posts.

For my part I don't think I overrated Williams and I still think he can beat most of the welterweights. But I certanly underrated Quintana.

I knew he was a good boxer and I saw his performance against Joel Julio and was impressed. But I didn't put that much stock in it cause Joel Julio is still not that great of a fighter. Also what I saw in the Cotto fight made me question Quintana's will to win. Not to mention a beat down like that can really ruin a fighter.

I knew Quintana would make it a tougher fight than most predicted but I figured Williams would take it on work rate alone and towards the end Quintana would get discurraged. Actually I still felt that was going to happend around the 5th and 6th round when Quintana looked to be gassing out.

All propps to the man for regaining control and finishing strong.

I'd now have him as an underdog against just about any of the top 10, honestly. Floyd, Cotto, Quintana, Margarito if they fought again even, Collazo, Clottey, Cintron, Mosley, even Judah. I think they are all more than capable of beating Williams, especially now that they saw what Carlos did to him.

[WelshDevilRob]

I think abit of both. I definately believe that Williams camp thought this was a dead cert win for there man and they underestimated a highly motivated fighter in Quintana.