So....is war in the Middle East imminent?

[Kev]

It's not looking good right now, and things seem to be escalating.

Iran is about to be sanctioned it seems for their nuclear program, their loony President has repeated all week his desire to see Israel destroyed, saying they have sealed their fate following the Flotilla incident.

I imagine Turkey and Syria, along with Hezbollah and Hamas will be licking their lips like Hyenas at this and Russia and China could well be waiting in the wings.

Obviously the Iranians have their own aid convoys en route to Gaza next and although they have said they are not going to go via Israel's blockade I imagine this could still be a tense week and they are not exactly going to be welcomed by the Israeli's.

I can really this kicking off brutally soon if something isn't done.

My own feeling is that Iran will threaten Israel, that it's neighbours will also start making threats, some incident will happen and threaten Israeli security, and the Jews be forced into launching some preemptive strike and battering the Iranians and then who knows what might happen....

Worrying times ahead imo.

[paddy448]

Very worrying times indeed, who the fukk approved irans nuclear program, their president is a fukkin nutjob. Definately cause for concern

[Kev]

Interesting article on it here. Sounds like a real dilemma for Israel....

International conflict: War between Israel and Iran in 2010? | Capital Flow Watch

[Nameless]

It's quite a worrying situation indeed, not sure how far it',ll go but a lot of innocents on both side are on the line and it reeks: If Iranians would want to send some help for Gaza, normally I would be ok with it and I would also be ok with them being angry if their convoys would be attacked. However, as Bilbo stated, their President is a freak, the kind of freak you can't but have to take seriously because of the power he has but the very last man who should seat anywhere near power. I imagine that after the stupid war Israel waged on Lebanon, obliterating the country but being kicked out badly by a Nasrallah, losing more soldiers than the Hezbollah lost men and getting 16 tanks destroyed on top, The Hezbollah could be keen in kicking them in the teeth... I guess that Syria and Iran wouldn't mind a little help after having been bullied for years and Turkey, if they do not provide help, won't let the american use their territory to help Israel if needs is there....
I don't think that Israel would use the nuke though because they know that if they do that, there is no more Jerusalem on the map but nastiness can be titan like on both side... Bad time to live in the Middle East I tell ya.

[CFH]

I see no way, short of regime change and perhaps complete revolution in Iran, that war can be avoided.

Biblical stuff aside, what interests do China and Russia have in the Middle East that would cause them to go to war on the side of the Arabs? Is it just oil like everyone else? For some reason I always thought/assumed that China had their own oil resources.

[killersheep]

I see no way, short of regime change and perhaps complete revolution in Iran, that war can be avoided.

Biblical stuff aside, what interests do China and Russia have in the Middle East that would cause them to go to war on the side of the Arabs? Is it just oil like everyone else? For some reason I always thought/assumed that China had their own oil resources.

China is the second highest consumer of oil at 7.99 million barrels per day, Russia comes in fourth at 2.8 million barrels per day.

China produces 3.725 million barrels per day which leaves a 4.265 million barrel a day deficit clearly the must make up that deficit

Russia on the other hand 9.876 millions barrels per day leaving a surplus of over 7 million barrels per day, however their government is run by oil tycoons, there is no that's enough oil scenario here.

Nobody is going to attack Iran while there is a possibility of a nuclear weapon (except maybe Israel of course, but the US, EU, UK will not be the ones to preemptively strike). The precedent has already been set by the worlds reaction to North Korea.

As to the point of Turkey siding with Iran, I don't think that's likely they know who has the bigger arsenal.

The frightening truth however is war is a very real possibility. As a microcosm of M.A.D. there are certainly reflections to be made about the cold war here, with war monger corporations (Lockheed, Northup Grumman etc.) making vast fortunes. The difference being Gorbachev and Reagan were much more stable heads of state. And currently the puppeteers of the middle east from around the globe standing to make vast fortunes on raping the desert of it's oil.

[CFH]

Very worrying times indeed, who the fukk approved irans nuclear program, their president is a fukkin nutjob. Definately cause for concern

I don't understand what that means, Iran doesn't need anyone to approve their nuclear program.

[Kev]

Very worrying times indeed, who the fukk approved irans nuclear program, their president is a fukkin nutjob. Definately cause for concern

I don't understand what that means, Iran doesn't need anyone to approve their nuclear program.

Well if they don't want to get preemptively bombed to shit they do.

[CFH]

Very worrying times indeed, who the fukk approved irans nuclear program, their president is a fukkin nutjob. Definately cause for concern

I don't understand what that means, Iran doesn't need anyone to approve their nuclear program.

Well if they don't want to get preemptively bombed to shit they do.

Who's bombing them?

I don't think a simple diffusion of their nuclear program would really deter an Iran-Israeli war in the long-term, though I could be wrong. It's Iran's bat-shit crazy leader that's the problem IMO.

[Kev]

Very worrying times indeed, who the fukk approved irans nuclear program, their president is a fukkin nutjob. Definately cause for concern

I don't understand what that means, Iran doesn't need anyone to approve their nuclear program.

Well if they don't want to get preemptively bombed to shit they do.

Who's bombing them?

I don't think a simple diffusion of their nuclear program would really deter an Iran-Israeli war in the long-term, though I could be wrong. It's Iran's bat-shit crazy leader that's the problem IMO.

Well there is no way in hell Isreal will allow them to get to the point where they could have nuclear weapons. Ahmadinejad has today refused to continue talks over the program if the sanctions against Iran get passed and instead gone on some crazy counteroffensive accusing the US of kidnapping one of their scientists.

I saw a youtube video with the army general of Iran saying if Israel do try and attack they will wipe them out of existance in 11 days. Good luck with that is all I can say.

My guess is Turkey will side with them, their prime minister and president are both known to be strongly tied in with radical Islamists, and are using last week's incident to break ties with Israel.

Last week's events may turn out to be one of those pivotal moments, like the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand, or the staged Gulf of Tonkin incident.

Russia are arming Iran with a modern anti aircraft missile defence so Israel will have to strike soonish. I think it's clear also that they are unlikely to count on the support of Obama any more and are increasingly seeing themselves as completely alone.

I really don't want to see war, but part of me kind of wants these Arabs to try it and attack Israel only for Ahmadinejad and his allies to get completely annihilated.