Dawson by clear UD.

But Hopkins won't take the fight, mark my words. He basically said as much (and contradicted himself big-time) in a recent interview on the Ring site. "I'll definitely fight Dawson if the money's right, but if it's not, I'll vacate the belt and take something more lucrative that will be a 'big event.'" He then lists fights against Shumenov (seriously) and Cleverly as options. He also listed Bute, which, granted, would be a bigger money-earner than Dawson. (He also said "no way" about Cloud, also claiming that there would be no money -- versus that huge superstar Shumenov, you know.)

The real issue is that Dawson is the only one of those guys whom I'd favor to beat Hopkins.

I'd really like Chad to commit to fighting all 12 rounds (or as many as necessary). If he focused more rather than getting bored and taking breaks, I think he'd easily be a top 5 p4p guy. But maybe that's just who he'll always be. I'd still pick him over everyone at 168 or 175 though.