Quote Originally Posted by Silkeyjoe View Post
Quote Originally Posted by 0james0 View Post
The problem you have with that betting strategy is the other outcomes that could occur. There are many. Although less likely, any gambler knows they can and will come up.

You've covered about 6 of 30 different eventualities. With the most likely return just over double your stake. I doubt you would have an every other or better hit rate to make it profitable long term. I've tried to arb the round betting loads of times and it just doesnt work either, winning on points normally screws the numbers.

I agree with you there is no value in the odds on favourite bets, although sometimes there is good value laying the bet on betfair because the odds are too short.
Well then you are not arbing because if you arb you guarantee yourself no loss. There is loads of value in match betting. You just have to know your odds. For example my latest good value loser. I backed Malik Scott at 4/1 and 5/2 to beat Dereck Chisora. It lost but the price did not reflect his chances of winning the fight. I could have guaranteed a profit by backing Chisora at 6/5 the day of the fight

That is why I wasn't arbing, as the numbers didn't add up!

A good strategy if you are into trading is to lay the favourite in a fight you know is much tougher than is being predicted, then as the war starts going, the odds get bigger and you can back the selection to win to lock in a profit.

If I was doing that bet of yours, I would have left off the Fury KO'S (as fun as they are to be on there) and have done a lay bet on Haye at Betfair. If you risk £4 on that, you would get your £20 back if anything happens but a Haye win. You could then do 8 £2 round bets, so a bigger spread, more chance of winning, and potentially some small winnings of say £4 - £15. But because I'm cautious, I'd probably put £5 on Haye points, then only do 5 small stoppage bets.

Smaller margins, but less chance of losing which is the whole point. Small and steady profits are the way forward, the alternative is that you win big on occasions, lose often and end up long term losing your betting pot. That way is more fun, but I think over the years, the bookies will always win on the bets that seem value.