Quote Originally Posted by Primo Carnera View Post
Quote Originally Posted by Silkeyjoe View Post
Just for clarification I think Cruz is correctly the fav here. I gave him about a 55% chance of winning but the value is with Frampton with odds suggesting he just has a 28% chance of winning.

I think Frampton will win the early rounds with Cruz finishing strong. Really could go either way but think you have to be mad to back Cruz at 1.4 or less.
55% chance, 28% chance, it doesn't really matter does it ? at the end of the day , bets are only value if they are winning bets.
Here's an example of what I mean. Floyd v Manny, Floyd was ALWAYS going to win that fight, so Manny was still always going to lose and it didn't matter if he was 4/1 or 20/1.
For a once off bet the price doesnt matter because you cant prove whether you got value or not but over time its the only thing that matters. For example if I gave you 20/1 on a coin toss youd snap my hand off, but theres still a 50% chance you lose.

Theres plenty of examples in sports where the Person that was always going to lose actually won. Leicester winning the premier league, Rahman beating Lewis, Douglas beating Tyson. Id hope the people who backed these werent happy with getting 1/10 on their bets

Floyd was always going to win? Maybe not. He could have popped his shoulder when throwing his first punch. He could have buckled his knee. Anything can happen in the ring.