Unfortunately just about everything points to Chagaev.

No matter what you say about him the guy was a world amateur gold medalist so there is basic ability there at the very least. Also he is a southpaw which will make him awkward. Matt will try and brawl with him but I have the feeling that Chagaev will just stay out of the way, use his jab and get like a 119-109 UD victory.

I want Matt to win but my head has to say it will not happen.