It is hard to reed Winky right now. It seems to me he has trouble with the bigger guys. Guys who hit hard enough for him to feel it even with his hands up and can penetrate his armor from time to time.

Pavlik is not only strong and big but is also a big volume puncher.

I will go with Pavlik by close UD as he has a great beard and little to fear from Wright so he can just keep throwing punches like he does untill he finally gets through.

EDIT: I think he will beat Wright by out working him but not necesarilly by out punching him. Wright is probably on the slide by now and Pavlik is still young and strong.