This is my first post and I'm not sure if I would be welcome here. Anyway here it is.

I think this will boil down to who has the better preparation/training and having the most feasible strategy/gameplan.

Pacquiao might be a little distracted with his extra curricular activities during training but he seems to handle things like this very well. I think PAC has the better sparring sessions working with bigger and powerful sparring partners. Cotto prepared for this fight in a longer duration (12 weeks) but it seems he doesn't have the best possible sparring sessions. He's sparring with smaller men (jr. welters) maybe thinking that PAC is a "smaller" opponent.

I think strategy and gameplan also favors Pacquiao. With a veteran coach/trainer on his side, PAC enjoys the advantage of having an excellent strategy/gameplan going to the fight. PAC is a 54 fights veteran and a 16 years pro. He has seen it all already while Cotto is a 35 fights veteran and 8 years pro. Cotto's trainer, Joe Santiago might be on his side for already a long time but he still lacks the experience of calling the shots on his own. Cotto will mostly do what he wants to do and not depend on his present trainer/corner.

With that said, I'm going with Roach's prediction on this one. An early KO or a late (9th/10th) round stoppage. PAC and Roach has a strategy to end the fight quickly in the early rounds by exploiting Cotto's habits or "mistakes" and using PAC's much superior speed. If that won't come then PAC will be more patient and will frustrate and break down Cotto slowly until the stoppage in the late rounds.

In almost every PAC fight, my predictions were PAC via TKO win due to cuts. It could happen on this fight.