UK Prime Ministerial candidate debate

[ryanman]

I know quite a lot about this crap . Feel free to ask any questions relating to processes etc. I have a politics degree don't you know?

With your expertise in these opposame matters, can you tell me who is most likely to "win" the next debate?

The yellow man is now 1/2 favourite (5/2 blue 5/1 red). Now that people know who the yellow man is, surely that puts him under the cosh for the next show?

Do you think a blue or red bet is value? Thanks.

A few factors to consider here (as ever).
All things been equal I would still expect Clegg to 'win' the next debate due to some of the same factors that 'won' him the first debate, but by a much smaller margin as he now has expectations on him.
But the theme of the next debate is 'international issues' - something which should favour the incumbant (ie Brown). This theme should hurt Cameron as he has no actual experience on such matters and will be seen as a bit of a novice/lightweight on such issues. This is obviously an issue for Clegg too but he will be hurt less because the Lib Dems opposed the war in Iraq.

In terms of who I think will do best in the next debate I'm quite sure it will be Brown. But in terms of who will 'win' (as decided by polls) it will probably be Clegg again. I happen to think that in terms of who did best last night it was Clegg, Brown then Cameron. But the polls don't reflect that. That is Brown's main problem - the residual dislike of him plus the fact that the incumbant is the only one that has something to defend. He will have to absolutely kick arse to be given the win. But, I think that he represents a better shot than Cameron on this next debate. Basically because Cameron is caught between two stools. He can't attack Brown's foreign policies because he supported most of them but he also doesn't get the 'better the devil you know' effect that plays quite strongly in international issues.

So, in summary, Clegg is the safe bet but Brown is the value. Just don't back Cameron. (although Cameron probably has a better chance of coming second than Brown does, but has less chance of winning. Fenster will know what I mean).