Nishioka is very technically sound and competent but he's really not in Donaire's class -- Donaire is faster, more powerful, and more dynamic. Nishioka is not an easy fight for anyone but he'll be a huge underdog and deservedly so. I say Donaire by KO 8-ish or a wide UD.
And that should be the *only * fight Donaire takes at 122 before moving on up to the more interesting and bigger fights at 126 (the Gamboa fight will be huge). Fighting Arce at 122 first (supposedly the plan) is a waste of time.
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