Agreed on this (and on everything else in your post -- very well said). I think his toughest potential fight is against Dawson at 175, easily. There's no one else at 168 or 175 who I think is even a 50/50 pick against him. (Excluding Hopkins, since they're not going to fight, but I'd favor the 27 year-old Ward over the 47 year-old version of B-Hop anyway -- not against the 35 year-old version of Hopkins though.)
I'd like to see Bute-Froch before seeing Bute-Ward. I think it's a more competitive and better action fight. Based on the current evidence, I think Ward dominates Bute. But I'd like to see Bute in there with Froch first to better size him up.
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