I agree in part. There are two reasons why Bradley has a better shot than Cotto. We agree on one.
(1) Mayweather is tougher to beat than Pacquiao. We agree on this point.
People view Floyd as unbeatable and Pacquiao as ready to be taken. Can the Cotto who Manny ko'd, and has been ko'd before, beat someone who hasn't looked beatable since Castillo I? Conversely, can Bradley, who has never lost, and in his prime, beat Pacquiao who looked very human in his last fight? The answer is obvious.
(2) Given Pacquiao's current state, and strengths/weaknesses, Bradley is a tougher opponent than Cotto.
El Terrible and the other proud Puerto Rican boxing fans, please note that I'm not talking the seek-and-destroy machine that was Cotto pre-Margacheato I. I'm also not talking legacy and hall of fame potential because Cotto wins hands down. I'm talking contemporary Cotto.
Bradley is more difficult than the current Cotto for five reasons not in order. (1) Desire: Bradley is hungrier than Cotto. Cotto is out there for a pay check (yes, El Terrible, he deserves it!). (2) Tasting Defeat: Bradley has never tasted defeat and Cotto has capitulated twice in big fights. (3) Primes: Cotto is passed his prime. I'm not saying Cotto is shot, but he's passed his best years, and Bradley is smack in the middle of his prime. (4) Styles: It appears Pacquiao struggles with defensive, counter-punching types, and Bradley can do both. Cotto has morphed into a boxer-puncher, as opposed to his old puncher-boxer if that makes sense, and you can't outbox Mayweather. (5) Speed: Bradley matches Pacquiao's speed or is very close to it. Cotto isn't close to matching Mayweather's hand speed.
To your points in favor of Cotto:
I don't see the weight as being an issue for either fight. Mayweather is going up in weight to 154, but Cotto is a tiny junior middleweight. Cotto isn't even a true junior middleweight in my humble opinion, and probably is best at 150 now. I actually think with the right conditioning, he still could be a welterweight, he's just not that hungry at this point in his career. Bradley has been effective at 147. He looked good against Abregu. Manny isn't a big welterweight, and generally weighs around 145 for the weigh-in anyway. Moreover, Bradley actually looked bigger than Manny at their recent press conference.
Cotto has the advantage in experience over Bradley, but he's lost against his best opponents. Bradley has beat his best opponents. It's not like Bradley has been with bad opposition by any means either. He's travelled to hostile territory (Witter). He's beat slick fighters (Alexander), pressure fighters (Peterson), and punchers (Holt).
The question posed was who has a better shot at the upset, and to me, it's Bradley, hands down.
At the same time, Cotto-Mayweather should be more fun to watch than Pacquiao-Bradley and will do better ppv numbers.
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