I'll provide you with a few reasons that Mathebula may be a threat to Donaire in this bout. They probably won't convince you, but hopefully, they'll add to your perspective going into the fight tonight.
Mathebula has faced good competition. Mathebula's division is a good one in South Africa and he's faced some decent boxers during his career. His loss to Caballero was rumored to be a debatable hometown decision (caveat: I haven't watched it) and Caballero is a top quality boxer, albeit inconsistent.
Style and Physical Characteristics. From what I understand, Mathebula has good upper body movement and throws an above-average number of punches. If there is one valid criticism of Donaire in his recent performances is that he has been concentrating too much on big knockout punches and less on combination punches and wearing his opponents down. If he takes his time too much in this one, he may find himself behind on points, and it has yet to be seen if he has carried his vaunted, game-changing power up with him to the junior featherweight division.
When have you seen Donaire face a significantly taller boxer? His biggest wins have come against aggressive shorter men. Mathebula is aggressive, but not in the bulldog way, and at 5'11, he is much taller than Donaire. He's also relatively athletic. Tall, athletic, those aren't qualities typically used to describe Donaire's opponents.
Cornermen: Mathebula also has a good trainer in Nick Durandt. He's probably the best trainer in South Africa. Maybe the best outside Europe, South America and the United States. Moreover, he has faced Donaire before when his fighter, Moruti Mthalene, was defeated by Donaire in 2008. I was at that fight (same night that Junior faced Vanda) and Mthalane gave a good account of himself prior to the stoppage, which if I recall correctly, was due to a cut, not a punch. The cards favored Donaire by one or two rounds at the time of the stoppage. Thus, Durandt has the experience to prepare Mathebula well for Donaire, although Robert Garcia will have done a good job with Donaire too.
Lastly, Cliff Rold, is picking Mathebula in the upset. I'm not going that far, as I see Donaire winning on points, but I don't think his opinion is beyond reason.
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