You're negating the lift that a home crowd always give to a tiring fighter and also the notable distruption caused to Froch's finaly preperation and traveling because of the ash cloud.

He'd barely touched down in the country and stepped off the plane before he had to get in the ring.

THis fight is anything but dead cert and a Froch stopage win isn't exactly unlikely when you consider the context of the last fight and his current form.

Not a cert, but not fantasy by a mile.