Saddoboxing Prediction Contest 14 (September 14-March 30)

[ruthless rocco]

congratulations Comegalletas!
congrats to the top 3!

thanks for all the hard work ouma and rhun!
i love the contest. i appreciate all the effort you put in week to week!

[YIDDLE]

Thanks to all who run this league for the time they put in and next season I will try to take part from the start

[gest12645]

congrats to the winner.

[JimmyJones]

Congrats Comegalletas and to all for a great competition.

Thanks to Ouma and Super for a job well done.

Although I'm not a veteran of this competition and I'm sure it's evolved quite a bit over time here are some observations that may or may not be useful for future comps:
- Number of points should be increased for ko round prediction and for one off ko round prediction (or decreased for UD and KO predictions)
Justification: Odds and fun factor. Let's be really generous and say that 50% of all fights (not counting draws) end in a KO/TKO. Usually the fights that we're predicting are between 10-12 rounds. Given that a KO is equally likely to happen in any 1 round then there's a 1/2*1/10 - 1/2*1/12 chance that a fight will end in KO in a given round or 1/20 - 1/24. However you'll only receive 18 points if you guess spot on. I looked it up and couldn't quickly find an average ko percentage but I imagine it's lower than 50% which makes the chances even slimmer (even lower once you work in draws) and the point to odd ratio even weaker. If we use the same 50% KO average then picking just KO gives you 8 points for a relatively 50/50 shot. For a long competition like this it means that picking KO rounds makes no sense at all (unless it's a mismatch heavyweight fight where first round KOs are more common). Increasing the one off KO round prediction mitigates this. Also predicting round KOs is a lot more fun and would be more tempting if the score matched the odds. Another possible solution to make this choice justifiable is to throw more mismatches into the mix for predictions as I've noticed most of the choices are close fights.

Thoughts on this one? More rambling suggestions to follow.

[ruthless rocco]

Congrats Comegalletas and to all for a great competition.

Thanks to Ouma and Super for a job well done.

Although I'm not a veteran of this competition and I'm sure it's evolved quite a bit over time here are some observations that may or may not be useful for future comps:
- Number of points should be increased for ko round prediction and for one off ko round prediction (or decreased for UD and KO predictions)
Justification: Odds and fun factor. Let's be really generous and say that 50% of all fights (not counting draws) end in a KO/TKO. Usually the fights that we're predicting are between 10-12 rounds. Given that a KO is equally likely to happen in any 1 round then there's a 1/2*1/10 - 1/2*1/12 chance that a fight will end in KO in a given round or 1/20 - 1/24. However you'll only receive 18 points if you guess spot on. I looked it up and couldn't quickly find an average ko percentage but I imagine it's lower than 50% which makes the chances even slimmer (even lower once you work in draws) and the point to odd ratio even weaker. If we use the same 50% KO average then picking just KO gives you 8 points for a relatively 50/50 shot. For a long competition like this it means that picking KO rounds makes no sense at all (unless it's a mismatch heavyweight fight where first round KOs are more common). Increasing the one off KO round prediction mitigates this. Also predicting round KOs is a lot more fun and would be more tempting if the score matched the odds. Another possible solution to make this choice justifiable is to throw more mismatches into the mix for predictions as I've noticed most of the choices are close fights.

Thoughts on this one? More rambling suggestions to follow.

i like making ko round picks but have learned that you can't win this competetion by making them. i'd be more inclined to make round picks if there were more points involved. in previous years a correct ko round pick got 25 or 30 points (if my memory is correct)... that made it a more exciting and unpredictable contest.

[Rantcatrat]

Congrats to the winner. Hats off to the moderators that ran the contest. I look forward to the next one.

[Tam Seddon]

I lost my third place in the final week o well, onto the next comp, when is it starting up??