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I'm doing a complete 180 on this one from when I first pondered it. I have a funny feeling Mitchell is going to get a ko. Not a sustained beating, but a suprising sudden early-ish ko. Chris has has proven he can soak up punishment but I like Mitchell's fast hooks against it and knowing he is walking a line of career irrelevance with this outcome.
I have the same feeling, though it's a total pick em for me. Arreola is thought of as really durable when he isn't, and he literally hasn't beaten anyone better than Jonathon Banks in his entire career, his reputation lies in taking a beating against Vitali and being in a few fun fights with journeymen. I don't think Mitchell is much good either and obviously Arreola could take him out, but he can punch to and all the room for improvement is on his end here. If he can connect with a short hook before Arreola gets anything going, wouldn't surprise me at all to see him follow up on it. I think he's a touch better than Travis Walker, and that's about what it takes to beat Arreola at his own game.
banks could have taken Mitchell the same way in the second fight as he did the first, he just didn't seem to want to

from that the first didn't look like a fluke to me

and if I believed there was corruption in boxing I would say there was something dodgy about banks performance in the second

areola isn't a world beater but he's tough and strong and has been in with some good fighters, I cant see Mitchell being good enough to knock him out

and areola definitely his hard enough to finish Mitchell
The common sense in me says just that, Mitchell has been hurt in at least his last three fights and Chris would seem able to absorb whatever he can put out while getting in and rattling a guy who didn't look like he even knew how to tie up. But common sense sits down at the opening bell. Banks got him with timing and riding the ropes, just far better skills than both guys here and I agree the rematch didn't 'smell' right. I said it looked like a sponsored training session for Mitchell. But, its Chris almost lackadaisical willingness to catch and Mitchells short hook handspeed that I think might just shock him on the way in. Stranger things have happened and Chris is not exactly hard to miss.
Banks is not a big punching heavyweight and he knocked out Mitchell in their first fight and hurt him badly twice in their second. If it wasn't for a mysterious injury, he looked like he should win that one. In my opinion, out of the two, although I've seen Arreola wobbled a couple of times, Mitchell has the suspect chin.

Yes, Arreola lost to Adamek, Stiverne and Vitali. All three are better than Banks, who knocked Mitchell out. As far as pop goes, Stiverne and Vitali have much more pop than Banks and Adamek probably does too, considering that Adamek stopped Banks himself.

Also, Arreola trained in Phoenix this time around, away from his usual distractions.

It's hard not to favor Arreola here, unless the loss to Stiverne finished his career.
I just think it was a bigger case of delivery, timing and skill level for Banks than anything about power. Its a package. A guy like Witherspoon had Mitchell out on his feet, literally, but had none of that compared to a Banks who was smaller, shorter and not a career heavyweight compared. But Mitchell clicked back on and brutalized him. Mitchell fights tense...hyper and not relaxed and a fast accurate cagey hitter will short circuit you badly there. Arreola is not that and I know its nuts given Mitchells sketchy legs but I see him more of a Stiverne or even a Walker type style hitter...faster lefts off the side, random, who dropped Chris hard then say a Adamek or Vitali who are absolutley better fighters and a superior "power puncher" in Vitalis case but neither of who managed to drop him. I just think Mitchell is a fast hooker and does do decent body work. Arreola looked almost resigned last time out. Tough as old boots but bad bad habit of standing up after attack and literally watching. I've picked much worse than this one and could eat my foot.. I'm not saying Mitchell doesn't suck and both are flawed but I'm going with my gut