Fury has the better chance of winning because Haye can be gun shy. Though to be honest in order for either Canelo or Fury to win they'll have to dominate or press the action for a large portion of the fight. I don't see either landing 1 punch KO's.

If Canelo can take the fight to the ropes using his size he has a better chance.

I expect Floyd to win UD/SD and Fury to get knocked the fuck out by Haye, which oddly enough I wouldn't mind happening.