Nice analysis and I'd have to agree. There is no definitive answer really. Not trying to say Vendettos was wrong but its kind of a red herring based on the evidence and in fact the later round fights almost seem safer. In addition 15rd title fights have been around longer then 12 so one would think that at least the possibility existed that more deaths would have occurred over the course of history in 13, 14 and 15. The evidence kind of shows that something else might be at play other then distance. The irony here is some ways is that Manuel Velazquez was trying to get the sport abolished and yet w/o checking I'd wager more die a year playing high school football or hockey on this continent.
Here is another interesting stat from the study.
Reasons for deaths.
Falls-101
Misadventure-81
Blows-65
Prior injury-35
Unfit-23
Mismatch-18
Weight reduction-6 (Not sure I buy that low a number)
Other-6
The explanation of the above.
Again on the one hand based on the round tally it seems to suggest that distance has nothing to do with it and yet one cant help but think that the longer the fight goes the better chance the death blow occurs.In 1996, some Japanese neurosurgeons reported that serious brain injury (specifically, acute subdural hematoma) was the proximate cause of most Japanese ring fatalities. The Velazquez collection supports their assertion. About 80% of the deaths listed were due to head, brain, or neck injuries, about 12% were due to cardiac conditions, and about 8% were due to other causes, ranging from ruptured spleens to “over-indulgence in ice-water.”
About 75% of the fatal incidents clearly started in the ring. That is, the boxer was knocked out, and did not get up. However, 25% of the fatal incidents began after the injured boxer left the ring, and about 5% of the deceased did not show visible symptoms until a week or more after their last bout.
Surprisingly, blows often are not the official cause of ring death. Instead, the usual cause of ring death is either a fall or “nobody knows” (e.g., misadventure). For details, see Table 10. The raw numbers shown below are based on 340 deaths since 1890, about 25% of the total.


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Pretty shocking there have been 45 deaths caused in the 1st if so, I've certainly never heard of or seen a fight where that's happened. I'd guess the vast majority of those numbers don't come from the west or anywhere with reasonable matchmaking and athletic commissions.
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