Predictive theories of boxing matches

[Andre]

A sillier theory is the "styles make fights theory" which was basically debunked as soon as fighters developed KO punches (approx. 1980). The slugger, swarmer, boxer system is scrapped. You are either an infighter or an outfighter and either an aggressive puncher or a counter puncher. The power of your punch does not play a role in your style. I mean what is "slugger" style? Stand there and throw punches? No way!

Slugger style is like Marcianos, take some to give some, not much sideways movment, not much going back just head down bore in and win.

Styles make fights, doesnt really mean one beats the other,(although it could and does sometimes) it mostly means it makes for a better fight when two fighters dont have the exact same style or similar. It hasnt been debunked because it didnt mean 100% what you claim there.

'The power of your punch does not play a role in your style' is also false depending on how you throw your power shots.

[pacfan]

This is my first salvo on the Duck-Ped fight. I've seen many folks here and elsewhere who say that it would be an easy fight for Floyd against Manny since Floyd easily beat Marquez against whom Pac struggled against and was ultimately KO'd by. Let me say that that is a very simplistic and somewhat erroneous assumption. I really don't blame them though as most of them, sometimes even the so-called X-perts, don't really understand the intricacies of boxing.

Most of you probably heard that style makes fights, so let me start by saying Marquez' style and Floyd's are not the same. Marquez is almost a pure counter-puncher while Floyd is not. Floyd style is more closer to Bradley than Marquez. There is one big difference though, though Brad is a pretty good puncher speed and volume wise but still he is a conventional puncher - meaning he punches like most other good punchers, while Floyd is a very accurate puncher who chooses his shot very well. There is no name for Floyd's style so let me invent a name for it - it's more of a defensive and precision pot-shot-er (ya, ya, it wasn't nice sounding but I think it did describe his style pretty well) - he masterfully dodges shots while accurately taking pot-shots at the slightest of opening in the opponents defense, not necessarily countering though.

Marquez lost to Floyd because he, the counter-puncher, tried to take an offensive role and did it half-heartedly, many times tentative and hesitant in his attacks, just running into Floyd's trap. Hatton did a better job because obviously he made up his mind to go for an all-out offense, a kamikaze attack. He charged into Floyd and got him with some nice shots but was tagged with more and better shots on the way. That took toll on him later and by around the middle of the fight, he was gassed out and pretty much beaten up.

Now don't forget, if Floyd is the best defensive fighter, Pac is the best offensive one. Now how both styles will fare on the ring is something that all serious boxing fans like me are waiting to see. Floyd has struggled sometimes with lesser puncher so how will he fare against arguably (I'm just saying 'arguably' to keep the haters away) the best puncher of this generation. I'm pretty sure that even at it's worst, it won't be as worse as many fan-boys think, if you know what I mean. That's obviously the reason why the odds are getting more even as the fight gets closer. That is why some great boxers like SRL and Holyfield are having hard time making up their minds, somewhat leaning towards Floyd but now it's a toss-up for them, and probably they'll change their minds again. (The great Nacho Beristein said he was sure Pac will win but just in few days he changed his mind and gave Pac 45% chance.) I'm leaning very slightly towards Floyd. One reason is I'm not sure if Pac's punch resistance is still fully intact after that great KO. But if he can take Floyd's punches, then I think it will be a pretty even fight - one part of me saying Pac will give lots of trouble with his high volume power shots that Floyd has never tasted, while the other part saying Floyd will keep on back-tracking, throwing those precision pot shots at Pac and Pac unable to do much, or maybe somewhere in-between...
(Sorry for any typo's, just don't have the time to check 'em now)

[SugarBoxing]

If Hatton was able to keep the guards properly and chin down, that would be a game changer.

[Max Power]

@NVSemin

Obviously at some point a boxer loses his athleticism and reflexes as he ages which counteracts experience.

Therefore I believe the prime of a boxer to be that point where the balance between a fighters experience (ring IQ/Skills) and athleticism (speed, reflex, condition) provides the most formidable package (with weight also taken into account esp at HW.

And again, this "prime" is again highly individualistic with regards to the opponent being fought. A particular point on the graph might provide the optimal package to beat a certain style but not for another and another point might better suit another style.

So this of course expands on the already simply outlined concept.

And as for @Ron Swanson trying to claim weight is a negative factor, I would like to point out some points...

- Over any representative sample of boxers, the chances are higher that the heftier boxer will win and also that those chances are greater the greater the difference. This is shown by statistics and is blatant common sense!

- Your jibe was, I suppose, geared mainly toward HW boxers gaining fat. Well in some cases I would agree, where that weight gain has been due to undertraining. However in most cases at HW, the boxers who are rubbished are elite athletes who train all day, every day and merely eat enough food to retain bodyfat. In this case, the weight can ONLY be an advantage. If the boxer is fast enough to catch his opponent and fit enough to beat his opponent over the required number of rounds, then that fighter is conditioned for boxing and it does not matter whether the boxer is chubby or not.

- The added weight may detract from stamina (but also may sap opponents stamina and muscle weight reduces stamina more than fat weight) and may reduce speed (fat weight reduces speed LESS than muscle weight). but also confers other benefits too like punch resistance and crude power.

- We are not talking about obese boxers who don't train, and we are not talking about ordinary chubby people. We are talking about professional boxers who are otherwise conditioned and if they weren't conditioned, they would not be in top level professional boxing in the first place.