A few fights ago everybody would have picked Alvarez but Cotto looks a different fighter since he hooked up with Roach. However he hasn't fought anybody dangerous since he lost to Trout, he'll have had tougher sparring sessions than the Martinez fight.

I'm interested to see how Cotto stands up to somebody more powerful than him who also has a hell of a left hook thumping him in the liver. I think they both have their moments and win rounds but Alvarez takes over after four to six rounds, Cotto goes on the back foot for the rest of the fight and Alvarez wins on points or maybe even a late stoppage.