There are reasons to pick both guys. I originally expected Cotto to start well and pick his spots and win the first half of the fight but then Alvarez to gradually catch up with him, Cotto to spend the second half of the fight on his back foot and eventually get stopped. Now I'm not so sure. Maybe Cotto wins a close points decision.

Cotto isn't in his prime anymore but he still has enough left to make this a great fight. It's not like Bradley Rios where Rios had basically checked out before the fight and was not competitive. This will be good to watch.

He's done well since he hooked up with Roach but the three fights he's had have been against low quality and/or weight drained opposition. He might look considerably less good against a live opponent with a lot of power. I think I'm still going to pick Alvarez late.