Britain vote to leave the EU

[Kirkland Laing]

The shares and pound are back to where they were before the referendum.

Panic over.

Lets get the country united and running again.

Let's wait maybe a year and see where the economy, currency and stock market is. What happens a day or a week after isn'r relevant. Wait to see how things shake out and look in six/twelve months.

Here's a scenario for you. Over the next six/twelve months tons of big firms and big financial firms/banks say if the new PM doesn't sort out access to the single market they'll fuck off elsewhere. The economy falls off anyway to an almost standstill or maybe even tips into a recession. Lots of investment is put on hold, projects cancelled, that sort of thing.

The EU tell us that unless we allow freedom of movement of EU people (the same uncontrolled immigration we have now) we don't get access to the single market. The government huff and puff but the EU don't budge. The eventual deal we negotiate includes freedom of movement of EU citizens. The EU kindly give us the option of scrapping the whole thing and just remaining a member -- they'll be under pressure from referenda and nationalist governments elsewhere, not to mention ongoing immigration/economic/currency disasters, so they'll be desperate for a victory to stop the one-way bad news and put a crimp in breakaway movements in other EU countries.

We get a second referendum with a choice between the new deal and staying in anyway. Basically immigration as an issue taken off the table. With a backdrop of a poor economy and loads of businesses threatening to fuck off we vote to stay in.

This seems to me at least as likely as us staying in. Maybe the EU make some small concessions on immigration as well to knock the edge off the leave vote here and elsewhere. Maybe the other odd variation, but this is something we well might see happen.