Carl Frampton v Leo Santa Cruz

[Primo Carnera]

Santa Cruz is too busy and too big for Frampton and I'm not sure how Frampton is going to get inside to get his punches off because Santa Cruz must have a big reach advantage (as would almost anyone in that division against Frampton).
I can see a couple of flash knockdowns against Frampton, but he won't be particularly hurt and it should go the distance.
And as the fight goes on, Frampton will have to take more risks, which should make for an entertaining fight.

I dont think Cruz is any bigger or stronger than Quigg (I may be wrong but would imagine Quigg is taller). In fact Id have Quigg v Cruz as a very close fight.

Ive never rated Cruz to be honest. He is good at everything but not great anywhere. I think Frampton could make him look silly.

Make him look silly eh? Hmmm , we'll see. You could be right......or it could be yet another example of Brits bigging up British and Irish fighters and showing a lack of respect for foreign fighters.
Come to think of it, not just Boxing, every sport. 😉😄

[Silkeyjoe]

Santa Cruz is too busy and too big for Frampton and I'm not sure how Frampton is going to get inside to get his punches off because Santa Cruz must have a big reach advantage (as would almost anyone in that division against Frampton).
I can see a couple of flash knockdowns against Frampton, but he won't be particularly hurt and it should go the distance.
And as the fight goes on, Frampton will have to take more risks, which should make for an entertaining fight.

I dont think Cruz is any bigger or stronger than Quigg (I may be wrong but would imagine Quigg is taller). In fact Id have Quigg v Cruz as a very close fight.

Ive never rated Cruz to be honest. He is good at everything but not great anywhere. I think Frampton could make him look silly.

Make him look silly eh? Hmmm , we'll see. You could be right......or it could be yet another example of Brits bigging up British and Irish fighters and showing a lack of respect for foreign fighters.
Come to think of it, not just Boxing, every sport. 😉😄

Im Irish so would not be very likely to big up a British fighter unless I really thought he was good.

Its funny you say that because there has been a big move towards Cruz with the bookies for this fight. Can get 5/2 on Frampton who opened up less than 6/4. Looks like the vegas line is driving this so think the US lads are underrating the foreign fighter this time.

[Silkeyjoe]

Just for clarification I think Cruz is correctly the fav here. I gave him about a 55% chance of winning but the value is with Frampton with odds suggesting he just has a 28% chance of winning.

I think Frampton will win the early rounds with Cruz finishing strong. Really could go either way but think you have to be mad to back Cruz at 1.4 or less.

[Primo Carnera]

Just for clarification I think Cruz is correctly the fav here. I gave him about a 55% chance of winning but the value is with Frampton with odds suggesting he just has a 28% chance of winning.

I think Frampton will win the early rounds with Cruz finishing strong. Really could go either way but think you have to be mad to back Cruz at 1.4 or less.

55% chance, 28% chance, it doesn't really matter does it ? at the end of the day , bets are only value if they are winning bets.
Here's an example of what I mean. Floyd v Manny, Floyd was ALWAYS going to win that fight, so Manny was still always going to lose and it didn't matter if he was 4/1 or 20/1.

[Silkeyjoe]

Just for clarification I think Cruz is correctly the fav here. I gave him about a 55% chance of winning but the value is with Frampton with odds suggesting he just has a 28% chance of winning.

I think Frampton will win the early rounds with Cruz finishing strong. Really could go either way but think you have to be mad to back Cruz at 1.4 or less.

55% chance, 28% chance, it doesn't really matter does it ? at the end of the day , bets are only value if they are winning bets.
Here's an example of what I mean. Floyd v Manny, Floyd was ALWAYS going to win that fight, so Manny was still always going to lose and it didn't matter if he was 4/1 or 20/1.

For a once off bet the price doesnt matter because you cant prove whether you got value or not but over time its the only thing that matters. For example if I gave you 20/1 on a coin toss youd snap my hand off, but theres still a 50% chance you lose.

Theres plenty of examples in sports where the Person that was always going to lose actually won. Leicester winning the premier league, Rahman beating Lewis, Douglas beating Tyson. Id hope the people who backed these werent happy with getting 1/10 on their bets

Floyd was always going to win? Maybe not. He could have popped his shoulder when throwing his first punch. He could have buckled his knee. Anything can happen in the ring.

[Primo Carnera]

Just for clarification I think Cruz is correctly the fav here. I gave him about a 55% chance of winning but the value is with Frampton with odds suggesting he just has a 28% chance of winning.

I think Frampton will win the early rounds with Cruz finishing strong. Really could go either way but think you have to be mad to back Cruz at 1.4 or less.

55% chance, 28% chance, it doesn't really matter does it ? at the end of the day , bets are only value if they are winning bets.
Here's an example of what I mean. Floyd v Manny, Floyd was ALWAYS going to win that fight, so Manny was still always going to lose and it didn't matter if he was 4/1 or 20/1.

For a once off bet the price doesnt matter because you cant prove whether you got value or not but over time its the only thing that matters. For example if I gave you 20/1 on a coin toss youd snap my hand off, but theres still a 50% chance you lose.

Theres plenty of examples in sports where the Person that was always going to lose actually won. Leicester winning the premier league, Rahman beating Lewis, Douglas beating Tyson. Id hope the people who backed these werent happy with getting 1/10 on their bets

Floyd was always going to win? Maybe not. He could have popped his shoulder when throwing his first punch. He could have buckled his knee. Anything can happen in the ring.

I know it's your job and fair play. But for every example you gave, there are 500 that go the other way.
And as for maybe he could pop his shoulder, yeah maybe........ But he never did he?
Like Master's old mate Beverley Knight once said, shoulda, woulda, coulda are the last words of a fool! 😉

[Ron Swanson]

Don't overlook that 7" reach advantage

[Silkeyjoe]

Yes of course there are 100s of examples where things like that didnt happen. Hence why those fighters were such short prices for those fights. The point is anything can happen in the ring. If not noone would watch boxing, and people like you who can predict results with absolute certainty would bankrupt the bookies. Luckily you're not a betting man though!

[Kirkland Laing]

Don't overlook that 7" reach advantage

Or the volume. The volume and the height and reach are going to make the difference.

[Spicoli]

Definitely top notch matchup that you stand up for and think both will have major moments!Frampton can early and set traps on warming Cruz. One punch quickness is clearly in Frampton's favor. But ultimately Santa Cruz shows mostly an improved big frame boxer who can stay smart and has proven option to do massive volume head and body inside on Frampton forced to play aggressor more and more. Not a bad card at all..and Mikey Garcia is coming out of witness protection and fighting again Tevin Farmer looks a serious late bloomer and can make Redkach look like a statue. Card kicks off on Showtime extreme?

[p4pking]

Good card, a few pick em fights with solid guys, what more can you ask for. Think it has to be said Frampton didn't impress anyone in his one fight in the states thus far, it's possible he doesn't travel well. If that's not the case, I could see just about anything happen, think a fight of two halves is quite likely.

I see Paulie is fighting again against someone who also doesn't look to have any power, would really rather see him on the mic for this card, but it's his hometown and probably a safe fight so fair enough.