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Government debt isn't so much a problem. They can inflate it away at any time. The personal debt of ordinary people such as those with mortgages is much more of a problem. People default en mass and suddenly you have a crisis as banks are essentially bankrupt anyway. Personal debt is huge and an increase in interest rates guarantees insolvency and bankruptcy. Central banks are stuck in the middle. Rates were too low for too long and debt has mounted much higher.
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So you're admitting that all the years you've been telling us that government debt was the problem and we were due imminent hyperinfllation you were wrong.
Personal and corporate debt are a problem in some countries, particularly in Britain. The situation is improving in a lot of countries though. Even if some countries do start to see serious problems with nonperforming personal debt it's noy going to cause inflation though, is it? Just the opposite in fact.
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I cannot speak for inflation or debt levels there but prices go up pretty steeply here and personal debt has risen 11% in the last year. They have also built 2 million new homes in a place with a low birth rate so not only have people already got mortgage debt and mounting personal debts but their homes will fall in value. They are the lucky ones as many can only rent. It's all pretty serious stuff.
Plus wages don't rise for a lot of people too. I couldn't imagine living on the minimum wage here. It's something like 2 pounds 50. I was earning that at 15 in my first grocery store job a long long time ago. It's a struggle for a lot of people. And local government debts are mounting quite heavily.
I'm telling ya, it will get dicey. Very unequal out here. Very Thatcherist.
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Nah, those are government figures and cannot be trusted. I judge inflation by the real world and what we pay for everyday things. Take rice cake which jumped 25% after the Chinese New Year. That's significant. Or the cost of delivery chicken which is up 10% year in year out. Or the cost of barbecued pork that I ate last week up from 12,000 per serving to 14,000. It is a big jump. Then there is fuel which is racing back up again. The only area I would say inflation is static or going down is property and that is because they built 2 million homes in a handful of years and there is no demand. Everyday stuff is more expensive though. Food is crazy expensive here unless you are going to eat noodles and rice day in day out which means weight loss and disease. Fruit and veg is particularly costly.
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When ricecake goes up 25% in a year that is a monetary decision. In fact all of the prices go up at the same points every year. The Chinese New Year holiday is always followed by an increase in prices. My wife bulk buys in preparation for it, it's common knowledge that this happens. If you are just going to ignore price increases and say that it has nothing to do with inflation, then you are just changing the definition of inflation. Like I say, I live in the real world and will judge inflation by what I have to spend to buy the things I need, governments chop and change things and what is measured as inflation today would be laughed at 40 years ago.
Also, this place is where they make the cars, washing machines, televisions etc, and they are all much more expensive here than they are in the West. They gouge their own populace when it comes to the trendy things governments in the West like to use as examples of inflation reducing items. So when you have that, plus the food that is double the price of food in the West, the cost of property, the cost of clothing etc and with lower wages. Well, the prices seem to come from somewhere and it isn't just supply and demand. It's also because of protectionism here. Mind you, it doesn't bother me so much as I am wearing the same sweater I was wearing at 19.
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It's really simple Miles. Prices for items like food and fuel are mainly altered by supply and demand, not monetary policy (monetary policy being printing money, raising or lowering interest rates and so on). Central banks/finance ministries have no real control over the price of food and oil. Those prices are set by the market and vary a lot. So to find a true measure of inflation, to find how monetary policy set by a country (interest rates, money supply etc) is affecting inflation they have an measuring index which strips out food and energy items. That rate, commonly known as core inflation, lets them know how their current policy is affecting the inflation of goods and services that they have control over the prices of.
You may live in the real world and have to pay real world prices but if there's a really bad global rice harvest and the price of rice doubles it's not down to anything the money/finance people have any control over. The price has not doubled because some government somewhere did some QE or increased their central bank's balance sheet or whatever.
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