luck

[p4pking]

Dont think so. Probably more a case of being lucky the opponent walked onto it, double feinted, anticipated a different punch, got his feet crossed, etc. The guy punching will always hope for those things at the very least though, and far more often have picked up on it being possible, so its never lucky imo.

[Beanz]

Yes of course. However well practiced, planned and executed even a counter punch is, when being delivered after a feint, there will often be an element of chance present. That is what all those hours, weeks, months and years of practice are spent anticipating.

The mistake is to assume the guy throwing the fight ending perfect punch is relying on that one lucky opportunity to capitalise on his opponents errors. The chance element is there but in the opponents mistakes.

The good thing happening by chance here is a lucky punch, but not because of any random factor introduced by the guy throwing it.

When Cormac Mccarthy said

"You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from"

He was pointing out how bad luck is often a warning that if heeded can avert a greater disaster.

If Pacquiao had taken heed and made adjustments could he have avoided the Marquez planking? Maybe, what about after? For him it was certainly bad luck but it didn't end his career.

If a fighter is capitalising on his opponents mistakes does that mean there is no bad luck involved? Skillful and meaningful execution of a punch does not preclude or remove the element of luck, good fortune or chance from the equation.

You have to buy a ticket to win the lottery and in a 36 minute contest you are simply reducing the odds of being hit and increasing the chance you will hit your opponent by training. There is always a random 'luck' factor in play.

[Fenster]

Beanz, does the concept of "blessing in disguise" apply here? You win a boxing match by legally punching the opponent unconscious.

Marquez intended to counter Pac with his right hand, he had landed the same counter shot dozens and dozens of times, where is the "luck" element?

Where is Marquez luck? He did what he always does.

Where is Pac's luck? He didn't benefit from being knocked unconcious, he didn't change his style and lost hundreds of millions?

(by the way, I like that quote, No Country for Old Men, makes perfect sense)

[Beanz]

Beanz, does the concept of "blessing in disguise" apply here? You win a boxing match by legally punching the opponent unconscious.

Marquez intended to counter Pac with his right hand, he had landed the same counter shot dozens and dozens of times, where is the "luck" element?

Where is Marquez luck? He did what he always does.

Where is Pac's luck? He didn't benefit from being knocked unconcious, he didn't change his style and lost hundreds of millions?

(by the way, I like that quote, No Country for Old Men, makes perfect sense)

Yes, I think so. The trouble with dismissing the idea of a lucky punch just because most punches have little to do with luck is that you have to pretend they don't exist at all. Without resorting to semantics, they must exist, but i think the real problem is people labeling the wrong punches.

That said the Marquez punch that turned Manny into a carpet was never executed so perfectly in the first fights or certainly not at the same time as him being walked onto it. How big a part did chance play in it? and how much is chance or fortuitousness involved with any perfect KO?

I don't know if an accumulator is the best betting analogy (is it the same thing when you bet over several events over a year, rather than just horses at the same meet?) but surely Marquez benefited from at least a greater likelihood of landing the hail Mary with every round they fought. Then again Rahman never needed that or many others deemed as throwing a 'lucky' punch.

Maybe the right term is 'luckier punch' ?

[Fenster]

Hmmm... the accumulator analogy makes sense, however, I'm still not sure it fits with the quote. You might as well excuse any loss as bad luck.

The Cormac McCarthy quote to me means - Pacquiao being knocked unconscious, at that exact moment in time, could have saved him from far worse "luck" - It changed his plans/life from that moment onwards - from showering, press conference, media, after show party, hospital, car rides, plane journey's etc.

[Memphis]

Generally speaking no. If the target is there and you can get close enough to whack it there's no luck in that. Fortuitous maybe, clumsy on the part of the opponent for allowing you to get close, drop his guard, back out in a straight line etc etc when for X amount of rounds he had been careful not to. But lucky, that's a bit unfair. Boxing is often compared to a game of chess. But in chess at any kind of decent standard you have to prepare your finish from a long way back, in boxing you don't have to. You don't have to manoeuvre your opponent into the perfect position to strike, you can just walk up and plant one on the fucker.

A 'lucky punch' tends to have further chapters to the story. Rahman and McCall are prime examples. Chinned a guy once who came back to 'prove' that he was by far the better fighter and that they were the beneficiary of his poor judgement on the night, they got lucky. Again unfair. The target was there and they twatted it one.

Luck is something you have no control over. To truly land a lucky punch you'd have to never move out of your corner, blindly windmill punches and hope your opponent walked into one. Even then it's still only fortuitous You were hoping the divvy bastard was going to do precisely that thing. Ignore that last part

[Yuzo]

great answers.