The Trump administration should have instituted tough nationwide policies to contain the virus—including mandatory mask wearing where infection rates cross a certain threshold—when Congress passed the first big stimulus bill, in late March. Trump should also have established the world’s most aggressive coronavirus testing program the very moment testing shortages became apparent, at the beginning of the crisis, instead of ducking responsibility and telling the states to handle it. And governors and mayors should have complied, instead of making their own patchwork policies that totally failed to account for people crossing borders and bringing the virus with them.

Trump and his critics argue that it’s easy to look back and argue for actions that nobody knew would be needed at the time. There’s some truth to that, Lyle. But it’s also true that many smart analysts were calling for actions that would have left the U.S. economy in much better shape by mid-summer had they gone into effect. The best example is the “Road Map to Reopening” plan Scott Gottlieb and several colleagues at the American Enterprise Institute published on March 29. Gottlieb was FDA Commissioner under Trump, and unlike many Trump appointees, he left the administration on good terms, in 2019. So Trump could have embraced Gottlieb’s 4-phase plan for establishing strict procedures for controlling the virus and re-opening gradually and methodically, without losing face. Nah.

Some states have essentially followed Gottlieb’s prescription, with predictably good results. New York was the epicenter of the outbreak in March and April, with the nation’s highest infection and death rates, by far. The governor imposed strict lockdown rules and a reopening schedule directly linked to falling infection and hospitalization rates. Masks became mandatory in most public places, with very little foolish opposition or complaining about a “hoax.” It worked. Infection rates in New York are now low, even as stores, restaurants and parks reopen.