The odds definitely have to favor Winky by UD. However, there are two factors that could work against Winky here and make this fight much more interesting than expected.
Trap fight factor:
Winky's coming off the big fight with Taylor, and he's spent the last several months complaining about that fight and everything else under the sun. I think his mind may be too focused on his last fight and potential big money fights in '07, instead of this fight.
Hometown factor:
Winky's fighting at home for the first time in 15 years. There are some guys who can fight at home and use it to their advantage, but I've always looked at it as a big distraction, especially when a guy is fighting at home for the first time in a looooong time. There's always the temptation to put on a show and win the crowd instead of just doing what needs to be done to win. Winky has made a career of winning boring fights. If he gets too concerned with winning in a flashy way because he's at home, then he's getting away from his strengths.